Incident Response Mechanism for Chemical Facilities By Stephen Fortier and Greg Shaw George Washington University, Institute for Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management 20 September th Dresden Symposium Hazards – Detection and Management September 20-24, 2010 Dresden, Germany

Research Problem Chemical facilities are an integral part of the critical infrastructure of the USA and remain vulnerable to natural and man-made threats Response to incidents that could lead to catastrophic losses run the gamut from pre- defined to ad-hoc. Related Research in emergency response (Turoff, et.al, 2002), incident command systems (Choi et al, 2004), data modeling (Chen, et.al, 2008) There is no standard or defined incident response mechanisms for the chemical industry Vetted by members of the ChemITC and discussions with DHS Critical Infrastructure Protection personnel

Goal of the Research Project Examine the current state-of-the-art of response mechanisms for chemical facilities and provide a “normalized” view of current practices Propose a “to be” view of an efficient response mechanism for a chemical facility. There are existing and evolving technologies that could be used for the response mechanism when emergencies occur at chemical facilities and this research will determine what is being used in the industry Model and simulate the utilization of various technology to determine the potential benefit and utility for the response mechanism

Research Questions Research Question 1. What are the essential elements of and effective and efficient chemical facility emergency response mechanism? Research Question 2. Does the size of a chemical facility influence its ability to provide an effective response to a threat? Research Question 3. What technologies, specifically decision support systems, could be utilized to improve the chemical facility emergency response mechanism? Research Question 4. How do you optimize the technologies used in emergency response to provide an range of improved solutions?

Methodology Collect Data Interview Experts Review Government Databases Create Process Models Refine SOTA Research Normalize Models Develop Simulation Model Test and Validate Research Question 1 Research Question 2 Research Question 3 Research Question 4

Elements of Incident Response What is the identification of the chemical? Is the release a result of a chemical interaction? Is the chemical an EHS or CERCLA hazardous substance (CFATS, 2007)? What quantity was released? What was (or is) the time and duration of the release? What was the release mode? Waterborne or airborne? Is there any acute or chronic health risks associated with this release? What medical information is available for exposed individuals? What part of the local community could be impacted by the release? Should the effected area shelter in place or evacuate?

Develop IDEF0 Models

Modeling, Simulation and Incident Management System Tools Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Consequence Assessment Tool Set-Joint Assessment of Catastrophic Events (CATS) Computer-Aided Management of Emergency Operations (CAMEO) Area Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) Chemical Biological Response Aide (CoBRA®)

Building the Simulation Model Problem Analysis and Information Collection Data Collection Model Construction Model Verification Model Validation Designing and Conducting Simulation Experiments Output Analysis Final Recommendations

Draft Simulation Model

Input Analysis If system exists, then requisite empirical data from field measurements will be used Otherwise, will use expert judgment including intuition, past experience with other systems or educated guess Use heuristics including: Random variables modeled as deterministic quantities Unknown distributions with partial know functional form that incorporate available partial information Past experience that provides information in the functional form of distributions

Data Analysis Conduct preliminary analysis to determine model fit From the collected data, compute various empirical statistics related to: Moments (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variations, etc.) Distributions (histograms) Temporal dependence (Autocorrelations within an empirical time series, or cross correlations among two or more distinct time series)

Output Analysis Replication Design. Goal to obtain statistical information form simulation runs in an efficient method Estimation of Performance Metrics. Provide the data for computing point estimates and confidence intervals for system parameters of interest. System Analysis and Experimentation. Statistical estimates will be used to understand system behavior and generate performance predictions under various scenarios

Preliminary Findings The effects of 9/11 and protection of propriety data makes it difficult for chemical facilities to share data. This contrasts with the US laws that guarantee the “citizen’s right to know” Although required to have emergency response plans, a number of chemical facilities handle incidents ad hoc Business process modeling is assisting in formalizing ad hoc incident response procedures Reliance on Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs)

Control is Key The goal of emergency responders at chemical facilities is to provide control of an emergency or disaster situation. As control is lost during a disaster situation, the consequences of the event escalate rapidly

Conclusion This research project will analyze the current practices for emergency response for chemical facilities and provide a model that could be utilized by small or large entities Provide statistical estimates that will predict the range for an improved solution for an emergency response mechanism Determine the impact or measures of effectiveness of a response to a harmful event, depending on the size of the chemical facility Determine what technologies, specifically decision support systems, could be utilized to improve the chemical facility emergency response mechanism