The Economic Outlook James Marple, Senior Economist TD Economics March 20, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

The Economic Outlook James Marple, Senior Economist TD Economics March 20, 2013

This time is different

What’s in store for the economy?  Lots of upside potential:  Housing  Consumer spending  Investment & job creation  Weighing on growth:  Fiscal drag – tax hikes, sequestration…  Global prospects & risks

Global slowdown a near-term headwind

U.S. exporting more to the Americas, less to Europe

Faster economic growth is on the horizon…

…In Pennsylvania too

Private “deleveraging” giving way to public

Federal deficits are getting smaller…

…At least for now…

Housing headwind becoming a tailwind

Construction to catch up to household growth

Market is clearing and house prices are growing

Auto sales still have room to grow

Credit conditions are improving

Uncertainty keeping firms on sidelines

Layoffs down, but need more hiring

Fed will continue to prime the pumps

America still has a jobs deficit

Employment growth is key to reducing vacancies

Low interest rates likely here for a while

The bottom line Housing improvement a fillip to economic growth Tax hikes & spending cuts are a drag Global growth improving, but risks remain Fed to remain stimulative Real GDP growth of ~2.0% in 2013, ~3.0% in 2014

TD Economics This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.