USA Mid-Term Elections 2006 What do they mean for Higher Modern Studies?

What the elections were about The USA likes elections. Halfway through a Presidency, there are federal and state elections and referenda. This is to allow the voters the opportunity to show their approval, or otherwise, with what the national and state leaders are doing. Since 1994, the Republicans had controlled both houses of Congress - the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Seats in House of Representatives The Democrats, up until 1994, usually controlled Congress. Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” saw a Republican revolution which created a Republican majority in the House. All 435 House of Representatives seats were up for grabs

Seats in the Senate The Republicans traditionally fare better in the Senate. One-third of the 100 Senate seats were up for re-election.

State-wide referenda Above, state wide ballots in Massachusetts. Some state-wide referenda held at the same time as the mid-terms delivered a rather mixed message about voter views on a range of issues. Voters in seven states - Virginia, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Tennessee, South Dakota, Colorado and Idaho - rejected gay marriages. But in South Dakota, voters overturned a near-total state ban on abortions. In Missouri, Democrats claimed another victory after the passage of a state constitutional amendment allowing the right to conduct embryonic stem cell research, something opposed by President Bush.

The Big Picture The Democratic Party has taken control of both the House of Representatives, the larger of the two houses, and the Senate. The Democrats seized the Senate after narrow wins in two key races (Virginia and Montana). This assumes that the two Senators elected as independents (Joe Lieberman in Connecticut and socialist, yeas, a socialist, Bernie Saunders in Vermont) vote with the Democrats. The result represents a major blow to of the policies of Republican President George W Bush, who still has two years remaining in office. As American say, he is now a “lame duck president”. He only has two years left and can no longer use the powers of persuasion over Congressmen he had when he had potentially four of five years in front of him. Now, he has lost his Republican majority, he needs to build bridges with Democrats. Party loyalty in the USA is not what it is in the UK, so Bush has a chance of winning over Right wing Democrats (of which there are several) but he can no longer claim a mandate from the voters for his foreign policy and his right wing economic policies. The new Congress will not take office until January 3, 2007, which is maybe one piece of good news for the President!

Interesting results L-R Nancy Pelosi is set to become the first woman Speaker of the House. The Speaker of the House is the presiding officer in the House of Representatives, with the power to recognise speakers, call for votes on legislation, and appoint members of committees. The Speaker is also the second in line of succession for the presidency, after the vice-president. Ms Pelosi will also share the role as the effective leader of the Democrats with Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic leader, and to a lesser extent with Howard Dean, the leader of the Democratic National Committee. Democrat Deval J Patrick is the first African American governor of Massachusetts. Democrat Keith Ellison, an African American, is the first Muslim elected to the House of Representatives.

Influences on voters Iraq was the number one issue. At the time of the elections it had cost almost 3,000 American lives and many more Iraqi (not to mention British). It had cost over $340m. There is no end in sight and American voters are getting fed up. Sleaze was another key issue. Republican House leader Tom “The Hammer” Delay had to resign earlier this year after embezzlement allegations. His name was still on the ballot paper!

Demographics The Republicans remain firmly in control of the socially- conservative South, but are nearly extinct in the north- east of the country. While white voters overall leaned Republican, it was by a smaller margin (51% to 47%) than expected, due largely to a 49/49 split among white women voters. African American voters remained faithful to the Democrats, at 89%, despite the GOP’s fielding a number of prominent Black candidates (unsuccessfully) in high- level races in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania Latino and Asian voters, who have traditionally been more inclined to lean Republican, emerged as clear and growing swing voters, breaking to the Democrats at 69% and 62% respectively. Bush’s immigration bill appears to have lost the Republicans their recent popularity with Hispanic voters. The two most prominent Arizonan agitators against illegal immigration, J.D. Hayworth and Randy Graf, both lost House races. Latino voters told exit pollsters that they preferred Democrats to Republicans by 73% to 26%. Other non-white voters including Native Americans tracked in CNN’s polling split 56% Democrat to 41% Republican.

The Future The contenders for the 2008 Presidential race are now positioning themselves. Bush, rapidly becoming a lame duck, has to stand down. With the Democrats in the ascendancy, there is a shortage of big hitters prepared to commit themselves. Sen John McCain looks the likeliest. Meanwhile the most interesting Democrats are Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Is the USA ready for its first