2008 American Presidential Election Prof. Jaechun Kim Sogang University

Some of the major characteristics 2008 election Some of the major characteristics 2008 election Unprecedented interests shown by the media all around the world! Unprecedented interests shown by the media all around the world! Characteristics of major candidates (Hilary and Obama).. Characteristics of major candidates (Hilary and Obama).. Perception that this election can change the domestic as well as foreign policies of the US in fundamental ways… Perception that this election can change the domestic as well as foreign policies of the US in fundamental ways… Spending spree! Spending spree! Money is the mother’s milk of politics! Even truer for this election Money is the mother’s milk of politics! Even truer for this election Estimated to spend more than $10,000,000,000… in 2004 four billion… Estimated to spend more than $10,000,000,000… in 2004 four billion… Election race started early 2007! Hilary declared candidacy January 20 th Election race started early 2007! Hilary declared candidacy January 20 th 2007.

Prospects for election at earlier stage Prospects for election at earlier stage Democratic Party was assumed to have advantage… Democratic Party was assumed to have advantage… Bush’s failed policies Bush’s failed policies Desire to change!! Desire to change!! More Americans identify as Democrats!! More Americans identify as Democrats!! Democratic Party Democratic Party 2 strong and 1 medium, but Hillary as the favorite!! (money, organizations, people) 2 strong and 1 medium, but Hillary as the favorite!! (money, organizations, people) Obama catches up! Obama catches up! Middle of 2007 – Obama – Hillary tied (approval rate) Middle of 2007 – Obama – Hillary tied (approval rate) Dick Morris predicts Hillary is going to be the president! Dick Morris predicts Hillary is going to be the president! Hillary 42% Juliani 34% (WP, USA Today ) Hillary 42% Juliani 34% (WP, USA Today )

Republican Party Republican Party Anybody’s ball game! The field was wide open! Anybody’s ball game! The field was wide open! But Juliani had the lead! But Juliani had the lead! The problem with the Republican field was that there was nobody in the early race who can mobilize the entire conservatives in the US! The problem with the Republican field was that there was nobody in the early race who can mobilize the entire conservatives in the US! Juliani (divorced twice, soft on abortion and gays) Juliani (divorced twice, soft on abortion and gays) McCain (opposed tax reduction, immigration policies… campaign finance bill)  national security conservatives, but social conservatives didn’t like Juliani and McCain! McCain (opposed tax reduction, immigration policies… campaign finance bill)  national security conservatives, but social conservatives didn’t like Juliani and McCain! Romney (soft on abortion, immigration policies)  economic conservatives, but … Romney (soft on abortion, immigration policies)  economic conservatives, but … Thomson jumps in – Reagan wannabe! Thomson jumps in – Reagan wannabe! Huckabee – support from social (moral) conservatives!! My running mate is Jesus Christ! Leader in late 2007! Huckabee – support from social (moral) conservatives!! My running mate is Jesus Christ! Leader in late 2007!

Primary started! Primary started! Iowa Caucus January 3 rd Iowa Caucus January 3 rd Rep – Huckabee (1), Romney, McCain Rep – Huckabee (1), Romney, McCain Dem – Obama (1), Edward, Hilary Dem – Obama (1), Edward, Hilary Hillary as the leading candidate? (Iowa is white state!) Hillary as the leading candidate? (Iowa is white state!) African Americans – maybe we will have to support Obama (wasn’t like this before!) African Americans – maybe we will have to support Obama (wasn’t like this before!) Survey predict O will win New Hampshire by more than 10% Survey predict O will win New Hampshire by more than 10% Obama surpassing Hilary in major polls.. Obama surpassing Hilary in major polls.. Hilary cries!! Hilary cries!!

New Hampshire primary 1-8 New Hampshire primary 1-8 (R) Mc (1), Romney, Huckabee … comeback kid! (won in 2000 as well!) (R) Mc (1), Romney, Huckabee … comeback kid! (won in 2000 as well!) (D) Hilary (1), Obama … comeback! (D) Hilary (1), Obama … comeback! Why did Hilary won? Maybe reaction of whites? Tears? Now she once again seems to be the leader! Why did Hilary won? Maybe reaction of whites? Tears? Now she once again seems to be the leader! Huckabee – a series of blunder, problem with money, too much Christianity… Huckabee – a series of blunder, problem with money, too much Christianity… Michigan P 1-15 Michigan P 1-15 Romney (1), Mc – Mc being frank about job situation! Romney (1), Mc – Mc being frank about job situation! Hilary wins but no delegates!! Hilary wins but no delegates!!

Nevada C 1-19 Nevada C 1-19 Romney, Hilary two consecutive wins!! (Hispanic votes!) Romney, Hilary two consecutive wins!! (Hispanic votes!) South Carolina C P 1-19 South Carolina C P 1-19 Obama wins decisively with black votes Obama wins decisively with black votes Kennedys endorse Obama, grand daughter of Ike, but Robert Kennedy’s offspring support Hilary.. Kennedys endorse Obama, grand daughter of Ike, but Robert Kennedy’s offspring support Hilary.. Florida P 1-29 (third delegate rich!) Florida P 1-29 (third delegate rich!) (R) Mc, Juliani – only 3 rd !! Strategic Blunder!! (R) Mc, Juliani – only 3 rd !! Strategic Blunder!! McCain now seems to be the leading the race! McCain now seems to be the leading the race! Hilary wins with Hispanic votes, but no delegates!! Hilary wins with Hispanic votes, but no delegates!! Edward resigns, so does Juliani (endorses Mc)! Edward resigns, so does Juliani (endorses Mc)!

Super Tuesday 2-5 Super Tuesday states at the same time!! 24 states at the same time!! (R) 1,023 (out of 2,832 – magic number: 1,191) (R) 1,023 (out of 2,832 – magic number: 1,191) (D) 1,681 (out of 4,050 – magic number: 2,020) (D) 1,681 (out of 4,050 – magic number: 2,020) Usually, after Super Tuesday, we know who’s going to get the party tickets! Usually, after Super Tuesday, we know who’s going to get the party tickets! (R) Mc – Huge win! Winning all big states!! (R) Mc – Huge win! Winning all big states!! (D) Hilary – 11 bigger states.. CA, NY, NJ, MA, TN, AK… etc. (D) Hilary – 11 bigger states.. CA, NY, NJ, MA, TN, AK… etc. Obama – 13 relatively smaller states.. IL, GA, Minnesota, CO, AL, CT… etc. Obama – 13 relatively smaller states.. IL, GA, Minnesota, CO, AL, CT… etc. R – “winner take it all!” D – proportional system!! R – “winner take it all!” D – proportional system!! Mc became de factor Rep candidate!! Mc became de factor Rep candidate!! D – head to head!! Excitement  Worry!! D – head to head!! Excitement  Worry!! Romney resigns! Didn’t really overcome authenticity issue!! Romney resigns! Didn’t really overcome authenticity issue!!

Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Virgin Island 2-9 Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Virgin Island 2-9 Obama wins them all! Obama wins them all! Maine Maine Obama wins! Obama wins! Potomac Primary (DC, VA, Maryland) 2-12 Potomac Primary (DC, VA, Maryland) 2-12 Obama wins all! Big wins! Obama wins all! Big wins! For the first time, Obama leads in delegate counts! O 1,208 vs. H 1,185 (magic number 2,025) For the first time, Obama leads in delegate counts! O 1,208 vs. H 1,185 (magic number 2,025) Black leaders withdrawing support for Hil, and shifts to Obama… Black leaders withdrawing support for Hil, and shifts to Obama…

Wisconsin, Hawaii 2-20 Wisconsin, Hawaii 2-20 Obama 10 consecutive wins!! Obama 10 consecutive wins!! NYT (03-03) – Obama catching up with super- delegates (796 out of 4050)! NYT (03-03) – Obama catching up with super- delegates (796 out of 4050)! Black super-delegates leaning toward O… Black super-delegates leaning toward O… Obama as uncontroversial leader!! Obama as uncontroversial leader!! Now who’s going to persuade Hil to step down?? Now who’s going to persuade Hil to step down??

Little Super Tuesday (Texas, OH, VT, RI) 3-4 Little Super Tuesday (Texas, OH, VT, RI) 3-4 Hilary wins TX and OH – two big states!! Hilary wins TX and OH – two big states!! O – weak in big states O – weak in big states Hilary regains lead in approval rate nation-wide! Hilary regains lead in approval rate nation-wide! But the problem for Hil is that gap in delegate counts was not reduced!!  Dem delegate counting system… But the problem for Hil is that gap in delegate counts was not reduced!!  Dem delegate counting system… Wyoming (03-09), Mississippi (03-13) Wyoming (03-09), Mississippi (03-13) Obama wins!! Obama wins!!

Obama wins! Obama wins! 10 remaining primaries, 566 delegates at stake.. 10 remaining primaries, 566 delegates at stake.. Although Hil wins them all by 10~20% and count the votes in MI and FL, can’t narrow the gap in delegate counts! O will still win by 100 some votes! Although Hil wins them all by 10~20% and count the votes in MI and FL, can’t narrow the gap in delegate counts! O will still win by 100 some votes! Delegate count now – O (1628) H (1493) Delegate count now – O (1628) H (1493) Magic Number – 2025 Magic Number – 2025 For Hil – all bets are on PA (4-22) to save her candidacy… and she did win there, but no significant reduction in delegate counts! For Hil – all bets are on PA (4-22) to save her candidacy… and she did win there, but no significant reduction in delegate counts! Bets on superdelegates! But not going to happen! Bets on superdelegates! But not going to happen! Morris – predicts Obama win! Morris – predicts Obama win!

Why did Obama prevail? Why did Obama prevail? Hope and Change… this was what voters want! vs. Experience and Preparedness Hope and Change… this was what voters want! vs. Experience and Preparedness Supports of independents (primary!!) Supports of independents (primary!!) Support of young people! Participation!  Eloquence, Liberal message, Change!! Support of young people! Participation!  Eloquence, Liberal message, Change!! Hil Hil Clinton fatigue… Dynasty issue!! Billary!! Clinton fatigue… Dynasty issue!! Billary!! Likability issue! Likability issue! Hil as true change agent!!?? Hil as true change agent!!??

Why did Mc win? Why did Mc win? Honesty! Steadfastness! Consistency! Honesty! Steadfastness! Consistency! Support for Iraq War.. Support for surge strategy Support for Iraq War.. Support for surge strategy Support for campaign finance bill, immigration, tax reduction… Support for campaign finance bill, immigration, tax reduction… Supports from independents and younger generation… traditional conservatives don’t like him! Supports from independents and younger generation… traditional conservatives don’t like him!

Weaknesses Weaknesses Mc Mc Negative legacy of Bush (Iraq and Economy) Negative legacy of Bush (Iraq and Economy) How can he mobilize hardcore conservatives and evangelical leaders?? How can he mobilize hardcore conservatives and evangelical leaders?? Hot-tempered Hot-tempered Age Age Scandal? Scandal? More Dems than Reps… More Dems than Reps… Obama Obama Little experiences Little experiences Overwhelming black support can backfire! Overwhelming black support can backfire! Participation of Ralph Nader… Participation of Ralph Nader…

Korean Policy Korean Policy Wasn’t really a big issue during the primaries… Wasn’t really a big issue during the primaries… Whoever becomes the president, policy toward Korea wouldn’t change dramatically… Whoever becomes the president, policy toward Korea wouldn’t change dramatically… Mc Mc More sterner measures against the North More sterner measures against the North CVID CVID North Korean human rights issue… North Korean human rights issue…

Would support ratification of KORUS… Would support ratification of KORUS… Obama Obama Said he would talk with Dictators… Said he would talk with Dictators… But can take stern measures against North But can take stern measures against North Rights to be unilateral (Audacity of Hope) Rights to be unilateral (Audacity of Hope) Said he would not support ratification of KORUS Said he would not support ratification of KORUS Both leaders think maintaining good relations with South Korea is in the interest of the US… Both leaders think maintaining good relations with South Korea is in the interest of the US…