Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl)

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Presentation transcript:

Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl) Wang

Agenda Macrovision Corporation provides digital lifecycle value management solutions that enable the delivery and enhanced use of software and content. This presentation provides an overview of our financial analysis. Overview Portfolio Position Business Competitors Stock Facts DCF Analysis Overall Portfolio Fit Recommendation

Company Facts Headquartered in Santa Clara, California Macrovision is traded on the Nasdaq National Market under the symbol MVSN Market leader in content protection, software licensing and installation, and digital rights management (DRM) technologies Alfred J. Amoroso President/Chief Executive Officer –Beforehand Amoroso was president and chief executive officer at CrossWorlds Software. –Prior to CrossWorlds, Amoroso was general manager of IBM Global Services Asia Pacific.

Portfolio Position Bought 200 shares of MVSN at $75 on April 3, 2000 Since inception it has produced a annual return of: -14% Total Loss of: -$9432 which is representing a total return of -63% % of Portfolio (market): 2% Reviewed on March 2006 (Hold)

Company Facts (Cont.) Market Cap: $1.39 Billion 2005 Revenue: $203 Million 2005 Net Income: $23 million Stock Price: $27.20 Beta: 1.26 (Bloomberg) 2005 ROE: 5.17% 100% Equity Employees : 692 Financial Year End: December 31 st *Facts from K

Industry The design, distribution, protection and consumption of all forms of digital content and software Content and copyright owners are increasingly vulnerable to unauthorized use of their content Annual Loss: $23-$25 billion to the U.S. copyright industries. Entertainment & Software distributors and publishers have become more concerned with protecting their intellectual property.

Industry (Cont.) Software vendors and systems vendors need simple, scalable solutions for the use of their products Seeking ways to package their products in order to reach a larger share of the available market. Enterprise customers focused on tools that provide a simple installation, activation and maintenance experience

Core Business Entertainment Technologies –Revenues increased $4.4 million or 22.4% from the third quarter of 2005 –Growth in hardware licensing, e.g. set top box licensing Software Technologies –Revenues increased $7.1 million or 32% from the third quarter of 2005 –Growth in market penetration and a growing customer base, as well as a result of the acquisition of eMeta Significant seasonality in business

Costs and Expenses Entertainment Technologies –Replicator fees, Hawkeye service costs, ActiveMARK service costs and patent related litigation expense Software Technologies –Product support costs, direct labor costs of employees on consulting or training, the cost of patent defense, acquisitions and patent amortization. Research and development expenses Selling and marketing expenses General and administrative expenses

Customers Entertainment Producers and Distributors

Customers Software Publishers Enterprise End-Users

Competition Entertainment Producers and Distributors –Video Technology – No significant competitor –Music Technology & PC Games Technology – Compete with Microsoft, Sony, IBM etc. Software Publishers –Enterprise End-Users

Competitors MVSNMSFTRNWKIndustry Market Cap:1,450293,8301, Price28.35 Revenue (ttm): ,350353, Gross Margin (ttm):85.41%82.16%70.10%58.14% EBITDA (ttm): , Oper Margins (ttm):15.15%39.38%-14.85%0.06% Net Income (ttm): , EPS (ttm): N/A P/E (ttm): PEG (5 yr expected): P/S (ttm): # Shares51.259,

Income Net Revenues Net Income

Revenue by Division

Du Pont Analysis Equity Multiplier Total Asset Turnover Profit Margin19.42%11.82%20.99%20.17%10.88% ROE6.03%4.07%7.83%9.22%5.17%

Stock Performance

Stock Performance (cont.)

Modeling and Forecasting Discounted Cash Flow 3 Scenario: –Base-case –Downside Base-case segments’ revenues – 10% Adjusted Cost of Goods Sold –Upside Base-case segments’ revenues + 10% Relative Comparable Analysis

DCF Analysis Assumptions –Beta: 1.26 –Risk Free Rate: 4.58% –Market Risk Premium: 6.42% –CAPM: 14.15% –Cost of Debt: 8.25% –Debt/(Debt+ Equity): 0.19% –Equity/(Debt+Equity): 99.81% –WACC Calculated: 12.66% Bloomberg: 11.98% –Growth Rate: 5% DCF Value per share: –Calculated WACC: Base: $28.95 Downside: $24.21 Upside: $35.70 –Bloomberg WACC Base: $32.33 Downside: $27.03 Upside: $39.89

Relative Comparable Analysis Comparison Companies: –Microsoft –Real Network Average MultiplesMVSN RatioPrice Average P/E14.57Earning Average PEG1.225Earning (G) Average P/S5.88Sales

Sensitivity Analysis

Correlation Matrix

Recommendation Hold –Reason: The current price of $27.84 is still between the range of $23 - $35 Nature of the business – still growing Negative Correlation with some of the holdings