Technical Considerations on the Quantifiability of Wood Smoke Health Impacts Regional Technical Forum November 18, 2014

Question for RTF Today Seeking a memo to the Council from the RTF to help inform their decision making on the environmental methodology for the Seventh Plan Can the RTF articulate any technical findings, based on the staff report, to help inform the Council’s understanding of the ability to quantify wood smoke impacts? 2

Since We Last Met RTF PAC meeting: Focus on framing out the policy considerations for the Council – Will reconvene after Nov RTF meeting to discuss outcomes and potentially develop its own memo to the Council November Council Power Committee meeting: Update on the RTF work to date Revised staff report per RTF direction – Voice, clarity around supplemental fuels and VSL, refining the recommendations Developed draft memo to test RTF consensus perspective 3

Background on Council’s Decision on Environmental Methodology September: Council released draft issue paper seeking public comment on several aspects of the environmental methodology, one specific to wood smoke: – Should the Council account for a new resource replacing an existing activity that results in an environmental benefit? – If so, are these quantifiable and directly attributable? November: Council got preview of comments, including a handful of comments on wood smoke December: Council will take up this issue 4

Questions for the Council Is this an environmental benefit? If so, is it quantifiable? If so, can you quantify the directly attributable benefit? The Council likely will not answer the question of wood smoke specifically. Rather, their decision will likely focus on what should be included in cost- effectiveness calculations, which will set the RTF path. 5

Concluding whether wood smoke impacts satisfy the requirements of the NW Power Act We will not be answering the questions on the previous slide – those are for the Council 6

RTF technical findings to help inform the Council’s thinking on these questions Specifically focusing on technical considerations on causality and potential methodology for quantification 7

Proposed RTF Findings (1) Note: These are pulled directly from the draft cover memo. The plan for today is to test, refine, and develop final recommendations. Step 1: Quantifying Changes in Wood Use Resulting from an Energy Efficiency Measure There is a causal link between ductless heat pumps and wood use, as evidence shows that the introduction of a ductless heat pump offsets some supplemental wood use, on average. Wood use changes can be quantified and would need to be determined on a measure by measure basis. 8

Proposed RTF Findings (2) Note: These are pulled directly from the draft cover memo. The plan for today is to test, refine, and develop final recommendations. Steps 2-4: Monetizing the Resulting Health Impacts If the Council finds that health impacts should be a part of its cost effectiveness analysis, the RTF notes that there is a methodology used by EPA to quantify and monetize impacts and recommends relying on that methodology. The RTF recommends the use of a more sophisticated dispersion model. The RTF staff used the Co-Benefit Risk Assessment (COBRA) model, which looks at emissions over a single year. EPA uses this as a screening tool only. Health impacts, for at least some measures, are significant. 9

Proposed RTF Findings (3) Note: These are pulled directly from the draft cover memo. The plan for today is to test, refine, and develop final recommendations. Precision Requirements for Quantifying Directly Attributable Wood Changes The RTF at this time does not have a consensus position as to whether the ductless heat pump analysis is sufficient for quantifying the directly attributable changes in wood smoke. Potential considerations include: Account for differences within specific heating zones. Use of control groups would help to account for outside drivers. A more sophisticated dispersion model may require more granular inputs. 10

Proposed RTF Findings (4) Note: This is a summary of the final section of the memo (not presented verbatim). The plan for today is to test, refine, and develop final recommendations. Resources Requirements Allocated to Analysis to Date The RTF spent approximately $100,000 on the analysis to date, plus used an additional 10 hours of RTF meeting time Does not include the resources required to collect the initial billing and interview data about ductless heat pumps Further assessment will be required A need for regular studies to understand wood use changes Required resources are likely beyond just Council resources 11

Proposed Resolution “I ______ move the RTF: [Accept the proposed memo as written] or [Accept the proposed memo as revised today] and recommend forwarding the memo to the Council for consideration at their December meeting.” 12