World Economic and Trade Outlook The World of Trade Data IMSF 2009 Annual Meeting May 4-6, 2009 New Orleans, LA Elizabeth Rouhani Consultant Global Commerce.

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Presentation transcript:

World Economic and Trade Outlook The World of Trade Data IMSF 2009 Annual Meeting May 4-6, 2009 New Orleans, LA Elizabeth Rouhani Consultant Global Commerce and Transport

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. IHS Global Insight Global Insight was founded in 2001 with the merger of WEFA (est. 1963) and DRI (est. 1968). In the 7 years that followed, we expanded our offerings and expertise through key acquisitions. In October 2008, Global Insight became part of the IHS family.

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. (Percent change for the world economy) The Business Cycle is Not Dead The World Economy Recovers Starting in 2010

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. (Real GDP, percent change) Economic Performance Varies by Region Developed Country Economies Are Shrinking

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Seaborne Tonnage Falls 2.8% in 2009 (Percent Change in Tonnage of World Sea Trade)

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Container Trade Volume Down 5.8%in 2009 (Percent Change in Volume of Container Trade, in TEUs)

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. World Trade Service TOTAL TRADE VALUE (Nom-Real) TOTAL TRADE METRIC TONS SEA AIR OTHER CONTAINER TONS DRY BULK LIQUID BULK GENERAL CARGO 20’ 40’ TEUs  16 Trade Concepts  70 Country/regions (World)  77 ISIC Commodity categories  History  Value 1980  Tons 1995  20 years forecast horizon  Updated quarterly

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Sources for Trade and other Indicators IHS Global Insight World Trade Service IHS Global Insight World Trade Service UN Statistics Canada* US Census Bureau OECD Eurostat Industry Public Sources Government Agencies Ports Others

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. UN Data Experience  85% of trade is reported in weight.  Late reporting: 2 year lag for some countries  Data revisions for timeseries  Mirror trade discrepancies  Countries do not report all their trade  Saudi Arabia exports to Taiwan –Taiwan not official member state of UN, therefore cannot show their trade.  Areas, nes  9310 SITC Special Transaction commodity  Unit Values inconsistencies

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.  Reconciliation of trade statistics…is it possible?  Main difference is the methodology for reporting. –Belgium maintains 2 different trade datasets UN – EUROSTAT data differences Belgium EU Concept Country of Consignments National Concept Country of Origin for Imports United Nations Eurostat

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. US Census Bureau  All methods data – vessel, air, and container  Custom Districts –Port level  HS 10 digit or 6 digit  Only a few commodities have been difficult to size –Fertilizers –Coal

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. WTS vs Other Sources  Ports  PIERS  Other Sources –Our numbers are based on final destination –No transshipments –No military cargo –For containers, it is based on full not empty. Do not account for container movements

Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Snapshot of the Navigator

Thank You! Elizabeth Rouhani