Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie Aangebied deur: Dawie Roodt 9 November 2007

Through the Eyes of the World Source: The Economist January 20-26, 2007 Full page advertisements (Est. Cost: £87,500)

The Opposition p. 15

The Home Team p. 17

Value for Money? MacedoniaSouth Africa Taxes  Efficiency  Competitive labour  Access to markets  Stability  Infrastructure  Property rights-  But why say it?

GDP

GDP at Market Prices Source: StatsSA and own calculations

GDP Source: StatsSA and own calculations

Employment and Output Growth by Economic Sector, 2005 Industry Persons Employed (‘000) Ave. Growth Employment Ave. Growth Real output Finance, real estate and business services 1, %5.3% Wholesale and retail trade; hotels and restaurants 1, %4.6% Manufacturing1, %2.8% Agriculture, forestry and fishing %1.5% Mining and quarrying %0.6% Construction %4.3% Transport, storage and communication %6.5% Electricity, gas and water %0.6% Private economy6, %3.9% Source: Productivity Statistics 2006

Fiscal Policy

State Finances Gold

Medium Term Budget (MTBPS) R bnBudget ’07 MTBPS Oct’07 Expected ’07/08 Difference to Budget Revenue Expenditure Deficit/Surplus % of GDP0.6%0.7% Source: Treasury and own calculations

Monetary Policy

Interest rates

Inflation?

GDP and Real Interest Rates Source: StatsSA, SARB and own calculations %

Inflation

Inflation bracket Source: StatsSA and own calculations 14.6% 10.0% 5.2%

Debt Levels

Private Sector Credit Extension Source: SARB and own calculations

Household debt to disposable income Source: SARB and own calculations 44.5% 50.2% 56.9% 59.4%

Savings to disposable income of households Source: SARB and own calculations 9.2% 5.4% 2.6% 0.5%

Balance of Payments

Source: SARS and own calculations

Capital Expenditure First Picture of Cape Town’s New Stadium:

Capital Expenditure Institute Time Horizon Planned Capital Expenditure (Rbn) Sasol Eskom World Cup 2010: Gautrain Acsa Stadiums Transnet (Rail, Ports, Pipelines) State (National Budget)

Socio-Economic Development

Close-up on South Africa Category Total population (000)46.6mil47.4mil Annual population growth rate (%)1.1%-0.4% ? Population 0-14 years(%)33%32% Rural population (%)41 Total fertility rate (births per woman) Infant mortality rate (1,000)5360 Life expectancy at birth (years)4642 HIV rate (%) in adults (15-49 years) % Poverty (% of pop. on less than $2 a day)34 GDP per capita (PPP) US$ GDP growth rate (%)4.5%5.0% Children of primary school-age who are out-of-school (%)7 Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators

Global Trends

Largest Populations, Latest Millions, (% of World Population) 1 China1,321.8 (20.2%) 2 India1,129.8 (17.3%) 3 United States301.1 (4.6%) 4 Indonesia234.7 (3.6%) 5 Brazil190.1 (2.9%) 6 Pakistan164.7 (2.5%) 7 Bangladesh150.4 (2.3%) 8 Russia141.4 (2.2%) 9 Japan127.8 (2.0%) 10 Nigeria127.4 (1.9%) 27 South Africa47.9 (0.7%) World6,537.8 (100.0%) Source The economist Pocket word in figures 2007/Nationmaster.com

Population growth estimates Source The economist Pocket world in figures , Mil2004, Mil2050, Mil 1. China5501. China India India3582. India China USA1583. USA2973. USA Russia1034. Indonesia2234. Pakistan Japan845. Brazil1815. Indonesia %

World Rural Versus Urban Population Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2005 Effect on global demand for food and commodities! SA: Cross Over 1985

Biggest Economies GDP by purchasing power (PPP), $bn, United States13,881 2 China9,984 3 Japan4,170 4 India4,158 5 Germany2,558 6 United Kingdom2,121 7 France1,934 8 Italy1,790 9 Russia1, Brazil1, South Africa606 World (GDP)66,228 Source International Monetary Fund

Percentage of World GDP ‘06 Source: World Bank

Other Trends

Dollar vs Euro Source: I-Net 9/11 Sub-Prime Crisis

Gold Price, Annual Average London Source: Comex, London Bullion Market Association Record: $850 p.o: -Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan - Revolution in Iran - Dollar weakness - Sub-prime Crisis

Top Gold Producers, 2004 CountryTonnes 1 South Africa340.4 (2006: 275.0) 2 Australia United States China Russia Peru Indonesia Canada Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea73.5 Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007

Oil Price (Brent Crude) Source I-Net Yom Kippur War Iranian Revolution Gulf War Series of Opec cuts Iran/Iraq War 9/11 Conflict in Middle East Nigeria Asian Growth US$ Weakness

Proved Reserves of Major Oil- Producing Countries, 2004 Major Producer (in rank order)Percentage of World Total 1 Saudi Arabia¹22.1% 2 Iran¹11.1% 3 Iraq¹ 9.7% 4 Kuwait¹ 8.3% 5 United Arab Emirates¹ 8.2% 6 Venezuela¹ 6.5% 7 Russia 6.1% Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids 1 Opec members. Source The economist Pocket world in figures % !

Drivers of Commodity Price Increases  New consumer economies in India, China, Russia  Investment demand  Lagging supply increases:  Many years of low prices  Structural under-investments in production  Oil price drivers:  Politics, US$ (short run)  Economics, supply and demand (long run)

The China-Effect  Expanded 10% p.a. for past three years  Imports soared by 330% from $15.5bn per month in 2002, to $64.4bn in December 2005  Bought 22% of global base metal output in 2005 (5% in 1980)  Doubled crude oil imports from five years ago (2 nd largest consumer)  Need to raise living standard  Population of 1.3bn, per capita income of $950 per year (129 th in world)

Asset Allocation

Local Equities, 2007 Economic Sector MCEAAJSE Sector Mining and Quarrying32%35%Mining, Platinum, Gold, Coal Finance, prop and bus. serv30%28% Banks, Insurance, Life Ass, Media & Pht, IT, Property, Support Serv Manufacturing12%10% Auto, Basic Ind, Beverages, Chem, Elect, IT Hard, Pharm & Bio, Steel & Other Personal Service6%5% Cyc Serv, Health, Leisure Ent, Non-cyc Serv, Person Care Transport, storage and comm. 6% Telecomm, Transport Trade, hotels and restaurants 6%4% Cyc Cons, Food & Drug, Gen Retail, House Goods, Non-cyc Cons Electricity, gas and water4%3%Oil & Gas Agri, Forestry and Fishing3% Food Prod Construction2%6%Const & Build 100%