HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN AMERICA Dan Schned Associate Planner, America 2050 Regional Plan Association Infrastructure Planning in Practice New Jersey Institute of Technology Prof. Thomas G. Dallessio February 1 st, 2011 Newark, NJ

Founded in 1922 as the “Committee on A Regional Plan of New York and its Environs.” The 1 st Regional Plan was published in 1929, 2 nd in 1968, 3 rd in 1996 – A Region at Risk Private, independent, non- governmental organization with offices in NY, NJ, and CT Professional staff of urban planners, transportation planners, architects, and urban designers Through research, planning, and advocacy RPA works to achieve the goals set forth in the Regional Plan

A national initiative (within RPA) to meet the infrastructure, economic development and environmental challenges of the nation Guided by the National Committee for America 2050, a coalition of regional planners, scholars, and policy-makers to develop a framework for the nation's future growth A major focus is the emergence of megaregions – large networks of metropolitan areas, where most of the population growth by mid-century will take place

Global climate change and foreign oil dependence Rapid population growth and demographic change Threats to our global competitiveness Economic disparities and loss of opportunity

Northeast Great Lakes Piedmont Atlantic Florida Gulf Coast Texas Triangle Front Range Sun Corridor So. California No. California Cascadia

Economic Benefits of High-Speed Rail 1.Boost productivity for service and knowledge sector businesses 2.Deepen labor markets for employers and broaden employment pool for workers Source: Martin Prosperity Institute, Univ. of Toronto

How does HSR promote economic development? Image: Univ. of Penn, Northeast Megaregion Studio, Foster economic synergies among specialized industries (agglomeration economies)

How does HSR promote economic development? 4. Stations serve as a focal points of future development 5. Make better, more efficient use of infrastructure Eurostar Station and development, Lille, France

How does HSR promote economic development? 6. Transformative effects Map Source: National System of Interstate Highways, Public Roads Administration, 1947 Quote source: “The Economic Impact of the Interstate Highway System.” NCHRP Project (52) FY 2006 “The interstate system … fundamentally altered relationships between time, cost, and space in a manner which allowed new economic opportunities to emerge that would never have emerged under previous technologies.”

Cautions and Caveats HSR is not a stand- alone economic development tool HSR benefits tend to be “one way streets”, especially for park and ride stations Haute Picardie aka “beetroot station” Lyon St. Exupery Station Image: Flickr/ VerseVend

America 2050 HSR Reports Where High-Speed Rail Works Best High-Speed Rail in America

Where High-Speed Rail Works Best

Economic Productivity Congestion In a Megaregion Where High-Speed Rail Works Best Population Distance of Corridor Transit Connections

High-Speed Rail in America

Primary Factors Weighted3X Regional Population (25-Miles) RP Employment CBD (2-Miles) EC Secondary FactorsWeighted2X Transit Connectivity – Employment TCE Transit Connectivity – Population TCP City Population (10 Mile) CP City Employment (10 Mile) CE Regional Population Growth Factor RPGF Regional Air Market RAM Tertiary FactorsWeighted1X Commuter Rail Connectivity Population CRP Corridor Traffic Congestion CTC Share of Financial Workers SF Share of workers in tourism and hospitality ST Each criterion was standardized on a per mile basis Each criterion was ranked on relative value in its class Rankings were indexed and converted to values between “0” and “1” FINAL EQUATION: 3x (RP+ECBD) + 2x (TEC+TCP+CP+CE+RPGE+RAM) + 1x (CRP+CTC+SF+ST) = Corridor Score Possible scores between 0 and 21 High-Speed Rail in America

Regional Population (x3) PHI HOU 2 Mi10 Mi25 Mi 220K 72K 2.1M1.5M 4.6M 4.5M PHI HOU

Employment CBD (x3) Philadelphia Houston 2 Mi10 Mi25 Mi PHI HOU 235K 136K 843K905K 2.2M 2.1M

Baltimore Secondary Criteria (x2) ValueRank Transit Connectivity – Employment 36%14 Transit Connectivity – Population 15%12 City Population (10 mile) 1.3M 15 City Employment (10 mile) 627K 20 Regional Population Growth Factor 35%n/a

Secondary Criteria (x2) Regional Air Market

Traffic Congestion (x1)

21 Employment Mix (x1) Share of employment in service sector / knowledge industries Finance and insurance Real estate, rental and lease Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services

Northeast Pros and Cons: CBDs Density Population Transit Access Regional Air Market Employment Mix Growth Factor Governance ROW / NIMBY Backlog SOGR Top Corridors: NYC-WAS BOS-NYC NYC-PHI WAS-BOS NYC-ALB HAR–PHI

Northern California Pros and Cons: CBDs Regional Population City Population Growth Factor Regional Air Market Employment Mix Governance Density Transit Access ROW / NIMBY

Southern California Pros and Cons: Regional Population City Population Growth Factor Regional Air Market CBDs Employment Mix Governance Density Transit Access ROW / NIMBY

California and the Southwest Top Corridors: LA-SAN LA-Riverside LA-Santa Barbara SAC-SF LA-San Fran LA-Las Vegas

Florida Top Corridors: TPA-ORL TPA-MIA SBT-VRB ORL-ATL JCK-ATL

Source: Associated Press “Within 25 years, our goal is to give 80% of Americans access to high-speed rail.” -- President Obama in his 1/25/2011 State of the Union Speech Obama Administration High-Speed Rail Vision

Future of HSR in America

Long-Term Commitment

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