R I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA Nuclear Electricity in the CEE Region: Current State and Development Prospects R I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA

Blue, countries with NPPs, Pink, countries that considered NPPs

Reasons why not proceeded in the past Finance Nuclear economics unattractive Infrastructure costs high Costs of new facilities high Liability for waste uncertain Manpower unavailable Lack of skills Lack of trained manpower Public distrust Private industry decisions Alternatives available

Changing conditions Economics of alternative energy sources Rising price of fossil fuels Nuclear continuing in many countries Identified success for countries that have nuclear power Security of supply Independence from single supplier Growing environmental concerns over fossil fuels

Global Nuclear Capacity North America Western Europe FSU / EE Japan / ROK Developing countries

World Primary Energy Demand 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe Natural gas Oil Coal Hydro power Other renewables Nuclear power Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

Into Uncharted Territory: The Earth out of Balance 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 IPCC Projection CO2 trapped in Ice Cores (ppm) Vostok Record IPCC Scenario Current (2003) Let me begin with what is the root cause of the issue – the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases – and particularly carbon dioxide - in the atmosphere. As you can see from the left-hand panel of this slide, the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide has increased significantly by more than 30% over the last 150 years – roughly since the beginning of the industrial era. By looking at the isotopic ratios of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere we can indeed see that this increase has been largely due to our burning of fossil fuels. When we go back even further we can see that we have now taken the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to levels that we have not see for almost half a million years. The right hand side of this slide shows results from an ice-core drilled into the Antarctic. The ice captures in its crystals samples of the air at the time snow was deposited. Each layer records the atmospheric concentration of the time. As you can see, the concentration has varied over time. It has been lowest during an ice age and highest during an interglacial period. The most important point to register is that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has stayed within two bounds, never going above about 280 ppm. Today we are at 380 ppm and still increasing. We are taking the atmosphere into uncharted territory. 400 300 200 100 0 Age (thousands of years before present)

Climate Change: It Is Already Occurring An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming World. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. We can already see changes in the climate. Let’s look at the temperature record. This slide shows a reconstruction of annual surface temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere during the last 1000 years. The most recent period is from thermometer readings. There has been a considerable amount of work to make sure the temperature record is homogeneous and devoid of spurious effects such as enhanced warming in cities. For earlier periods we have to rely on carefully calibrated proxy-data such as tree-rings and ice-cores. The uncertainty, of course, increases as we go back in time – as shown by the grey shading. There is still some uncertainty with how best to interpret proxy data; some only record the climate during summer or winter and the coverage is not uniform spatially or temporally. There is also some uncertainty in the magnitude of century-scale variability – it may be larger than shown here. As you can see, the surface temperatures have recently increased. This increase has not been smooth but has been most noticeable over the last few decades. Globally, temperatures have risen by about 0.6 oC over the last century. It is very likely that the recent warming is outside of the natural variability of the climate. Furthermore, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, said in its 3rd Assessment Report in 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

Technologies Exist to Begin to Take Action - It has been argued that we already have the technologies to maintain GHG emissions at today’s levels for the next 50 years. Today’s emissions are equivalent to some 7 Giga tonnes of carbon dioxide. If we continued on our current “Business as Usual” path this could rise to 14 Giga tones by 2050. Achieving this target is roughly consistent with eventual stabilization at twice pre-industrial levels although tougher reductions will be required afterwards. Professor Robert Socolow of Princeton University has suggested that we consider a series on 1 Giga tonne “wedges”. Each wedge corresponds to a particular technology. It is important to recognize that there is no single “silver-bullet”. Rather a portfolio of technologies will be required and it is too soon to pick winners. Improvements in energy efficiency and conservation offer the greatest potential and will come from literally hundreds of innovations. A 1 Gt C/year wedge can be achieved by displacing coal-generated power for example through a 50-fold increase in the current deployment of wind energy and a 700-fold increase in photovoltaic electricity – both requiring large areas of land. Nuclear power is also considered and it is argued that if the global pace of nuclear power plant construction over the past 25 years were continued to 2050 another 1 Gt C/year could be saved. Delaying action could produce greater GDP growth and newer technologies and hence more wealth and options to address climate change. However, it would make achieving any stabilization target more of a challenge, possibly more costly, it would make adaptation more difficult, particularly of natural systems, and we may exceed the point where some changes may be irreversible. A 20 year delay in beginning to reduce emissions could require between 3 to 7 times as much effort later and at greater costs. R Socolow, Science 2004

Agency Activities Regional Europe TC Projects National Projects Operational Support Safety/regulatory support National Projects Energy Planning, capacity building License renewal/Life extension Infrastructure support Specific national requests

Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life Experience over the past four years World Regional Europe Increase in installed capacity 2.07% 2.8% Increase output 7.4% 16.9% Additional TWH/year 42.18 Additional Annual Revenue $25M per TWH

World Energy today Energy consumption (GJ/cap) Electricity Consumption (MWh/cap) North America 347 13.8 Western Europe 150 6.3 Eastern Europe 130 4.2 Middle East and South Asia 28 0.7 Africa 26 0.6 Far East 56 2.2 World Average 71 2.6

Prognosis for the future World demand increases Asia increases much faster than world average Fossil fuel use has massive increase Environmental stress

CEE Bulgaria 4 42 Czech R 8 31 Finland 27 Hungary 34 Lithuania 1 72 Number of NPP units % of all electricity from nuclear Bulgaria 4 42 Czech R 8 31 Finland 27 Hungary 34 Lithuania 1 72 Romania 10 Slovakia 6 55 Slovenia 39 Ukraine 15 51

Nuclear Support In the Countries where nuclear power contributes significantly to the national electricity supply there is broad political consensus that nuclear power should continue

CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries) Planned new units Continued operation and license renewal Bulgaria Yes yes Czech R Finland Hungary Lithuania Possible No Romania Yes Completion of delayed plant Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine

Other Countries plans Several Countries have expressed interest recently, particularly since Paris Conference “Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at which 34 Ministers presented speeches discussing their countries interest in possible nuclear power plants in the future. At present there are 24 nuclear plants under construction in 9 countries

European Green Paper Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply (2000) Three Main Points Increasing Dependence upon external energy sources (70% by 2030) Little scope to influence energy supply conditions Not in a position to respond to challenge of Climate Change

European Context Nuclear can reduce external dependence upon fossil energy Nuclear can provide energy without Greenhouse Gas emissions Nuclear can provide diversity of national energy supply and improved national energy supply security

Nuclear Availability Technology available now for large nuclear plant, in an integrated grid system Several plants being built worldwide that could be used in Europe Several designs approaching implementation for small or medium sized reactors that could be used on a more localised basis. European Infrastructure exists that could support the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country in Europe

Nuclear fuel and waste Recent speech by US Secretary of State for Energy US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then taking it back for reprocessing and disposition. This service is already available from Russia, and hence should develop into the normal means of fuel supply and removal service

Waste storage Generally this is a technically solved problem, and the future position of return of fuel to the supplier country should reduce the number of storage locations that are needed.

Nuclear and Renewables Nuclear power should not be seen as competing with renewable energy systems Both renewable systems and high quality nuclear power are needed to ensure a secure energy supply system

The next steps Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant potential energy source for Europe For countries that do not already operate nuclear power plants the IAEA can provide support to develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these countries Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant problem for Europe in terms of energy supply security

The end, thank you