2012 Elections In Maryland Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

National Results Popular VoteElectoral College Obama50332 Romney48206

National Results Obama % Popular vote 69,456,897 61,713,086-7,743,811 Electoral College McCain/Romney% Popular vote 59,934,814 58,510,150-1,424,664 Electoral College

How did the pollsters do? Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4 Oct 3 Oct 11 Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

Map of Battleground States Nev. Col o. Iowa Wis Ohio Va. NH Fl. NC

Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1 Colorado ObamaRomney Votamatic Drew Linzer votamatic.org/ Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/a uthor/nate-silver/ RCP Average Actual results 5147 Florida Votamatic 50 Silver RCP Average Actual results5049 Iowa Votamatic Silver 5148 RCP Average Actual results5246 Nevada Votamatic Silver RCP Average Actual results5246 New Hampshire Votamatic Silver RCP Average Actual results5246 ObamaRomney North Carolina Votamatic 4951 Silver RCP Average Actual results 4851 Ohio Votamatic Silver RCP Average Actual results 5048 Virginia Votamatic Silver RCP Average Actual results5148 Wisconsin Votamatic Silver RCP 5045 Average Actual results5346 Total Votamatic noneNone Silver RCP Average Electoral College Votamatic (and actual results) Silver RCP Average

Dem Margins: EC vs. PV ( )

Popular Vote:

Electoral College Percentages:

Exit Poll: Demographics TraitObamaRomney Men (47% ) 4552 Women (53%) (19%) (27%) (38%) (16%) 4456 Urban (32%) 6236 Suburban (47%) 4850 Rural (21%) 3959 White (72%) 3959 Black (13%) 937 Latino (10%) 7127 Trait ObamaRomney Liberal (25%) 8614 Moderate (41%) 5641 Conservative (35% ) 1782 Republican (32%) 793 Independent (29%) 4550 Democrat (38% ) 928 <$100k (72%) 5444 >$100 (28%) 4454 Protestant (53%) 4257 Catholic (25%) None (12%)

Exit Poll: Issues TraitObamaRomney Abortion legal (59 )6731 Abortion illegal (36 )2277 Health Care (18%)7524 Housing market (8%) 6332 Foreign Policy (5%)5633 Unemployment (38%) 5444 Taxes (14%)3266 Deficit (15%)3266 Economy (59%)4751 Rising Prices (37%)49 Trait ObamaRomney Don’t repeal HC reform (44%) 8713 Repeal (49%)1583 Increase taxes for all (13%) 5244 Increase taxes for rich (47%) 7029 No tax increase (35%) 2375 Most illegal immigrants should be offered legal status (65%) 6137 Deport (28%)2473 More in touch - Obama/Romney (53%)/(43%) 9198

National Demographic Lessons Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African- Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30 Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+ Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural

Senate: Dem WinsRep Wins open3 open 3 (or4) party change 1 party change + 2 indep. Maine/Ver mont Margin (%) Dem47214 Rep2006 Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45

National Results: Election findings Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results) Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win

Maryland: Presidential Results In percent Obama McCain/Ro mney In votes Obama1,629,4671,547, McCain/Ro mney 959,862923,

Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

CountyObamaRomney Allegany County32 65 Anne Arundel County48 49 Baltimore City Baltimore County Calvert County45 53 Caroline County37 61 Carroll County32 65 Cecil County39 59 Charles County Dorchester County46 53 Frederick County47 51 Garrett County23 75 Harford County39 58 Howard County Kent County 49 Montgomery County Prince George's County 90 9 Queen Anne's County34 64 St. Mary's County41 57 Somerset County48 51 Talbot County43 56 Washington County40 58 Wicomico County46 52 Worcester County40 58 Presidential Vote by County, 2012

Dream Act by County, % Supporting

Redistricting by County, % Supporting

Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”) Percentages Dream (Q4) Redistricting (Q5)SSM (Q6) Casinos (Q7)ObamaOverall Standard Deviation Majorities in Garrett County Carroll County Allegany County Caroline County Queen Anne's County Washington County Harford County Cecil County Talbot County Dorchester County Kent County Anne Arundel County Worcester County Calvert County Frederick County St. Mary's County Somerset County Wicomico County Baltimore County Howard County Charles County Montgomery County Baltimore City Prince George's County Overall 58/4264/3652/

Lessons for State Elections Democratic hegemony remains unchanging Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

Anne Arundel County: Presidential Vote: 2008 vs DistrictObama 08 McCain 08 Obama 12 Romney 12 Obama McCain- Romney Absentee/Early / Provisional Total Libertarian: ‘08 =.5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 =.7 ‘12 =.7 Total: 1.2/2.1

Anne Arundel County: Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

AA County: Early Vote ObamaRomney Early Vote Center Election Day Early/Provsional/ Absentee Obama Early-Election Day Obama Early – Romney Early Overall

AA County Lessons County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos) Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

AAC: Demographic Lessons Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30 Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $ k Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $ k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+ Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals