Josh Bruce, AICP Interim Director Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience Community Service Center, University of Oregon Resilience Planning Overview Seaside, Oregon May 13, 2013 Resilience Pilot Project Local Work Group Meeting Funding and support from:

Oregon citizens will not only be protected from life- threatening physical harm, but because of risk reduction measures and pre-disaster planning, communities will recover more quickly and with less continuing vulnerability following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and tsunami (OSSPAC Definition) BikePortland.org What is “Resilience”?

The ability of a local community to respond to, and recover from, an incident or emergency The ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and recover from disruptions The ability to sustain ecological services, life support systems, biological diversity, and economic vitality. The degree to which a community is capable of absorbing disturbances and maintain its functions, reorganize, or renew.

Characteristics of Resilient Systems Flexibility/Diversity Redundancy/Modularity Safe failure Networked systems –Vertical –Horizontal

Resilience Flow I South Coast Recovery Project, OPDR

Resilience Flow II

Resilience Pyramid – EM Focus RESILIENCE Recovery Plan Short-termLong-term Continuity Plan Continuity of OperationsBusiness Resumption Emergency Operations Plan Immediate ResponseSustained Operations Mitigation Plan Post-Disaster Pre-Disaster Five-Year Strategic & Business Plan Enterprise-wide vision for Emergency Management

Resilience of What? Emergency Services (evacuation, response, recovery) Citizens, property and infrastructure Energy and transportation systems Food and water systems Social systems Local Economy Natural systems Photo Credit” Horning Geosciences; Source: Oregon Resilience Plan

Resilience to What? Climate change (sea level rise, storm events, etc.) Disasters (earthquake, tsunami, flood, wildfire) Economic challenges/downturns Surprises & ‘nonlinearities’ Uncertainties

Plan Frameworks and Guidelines USAID- How Resilient Is Your Coastal Community? (Recommended) NOAA- Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State Coastal Managers Rural Resilience Guide (Canadian)

What’s in a Resilience Plan? Local hazard threat/risk assessment Local vulnerability assessment Local asset & capacity assessment Climate change impact assessment Proposed actions and adaptations Institute for Social and Environmental Transition: Resilience Strategy

What’s different from other plans? Less focus on mitigation and response; more on adaptation Address socioeconomic aspects Community led and guided Includes education and collaboration DELETE THIS SLIDE?? “The organizations who worked on the plans had few precedents in their own experience to work from, and indeed almost no useful examples of similar work undertaken anywhere else.” ~ ISET Working Paper, 2010

Common Resilience Plan Themes Action-oriented Include soft & hard actions –Policy approaches –Redundant & diverse infrastructure Make critical systems flexible –Focus on safe to fail, instead of failsafe Nested institutional networks –Vertical and horizontal alignment Have a responsive, organized, & involved community, with a local champion

Resilience Assessment Areas Governance Society and Economy Coastal Resource Management Land Use and Structural Design Risk Knowledge Warning and Evacuation Emergency Response Disaster Recovery Utilities Natural and Cultural Systems

Resilience Assessment Types Scenario Analysis: uses emissions projections or climate models Sensitivity Analysis: uses incremental projections and small range of impacts Portfolio Analysis: measures projects and feasibility against future demand Threshold Approach: identifies system components at risk

Sample Table of Contents I. Purpose & Executive Summary II. Community Profile III. Existing Activities, Plans & Analysis IV. Resilience Assessment (USAID framework) V. Recommendations VI. Action Plan VII. Monitoring & Implementation VIII. Conclusion

Discussion What themes should we focus on? –Resilience of what/to what? What type of plan is this? –Action, strategy, policy?

Wrap Up