Fertility: Other Readings Kimmel/Hoffman book: –Chapter 4 by Averett (note she is coauthor for text too). –“Natalist” policies: policies that affect fertility, whether by intent or otherwise (US: no policies designed to affect fertility but still policies have effect). –Four policies analyzed: Taxes Welfare Medicaid Maternity leave.

Effects of Policies on Fertility Review of fertility theory –1) Fertility as consequence of rational choice; expressed as a function of income, prices, and preferences. –2) Although theory cannot predict for sure if  female wage will cause  fertility, most empirical work supports this (but recall new theory!). Fertility effects of taxes: –Personal exemption: each person in household (including kids) exempts some of income from taxable Y. $ exemption covers  4-9% of total costs of raising a child. Yes  fertility.

Continued: Fertility Effects of Policy EITC: –$ value varies by family size; – most available for single parents. –Recent research paper could not establish a link between EITC and fertility. Cash Welfare and Fertility: –$ only available in families w/kids; –$ value  as # kids . –Family caps imposed by some states. –Evidence mixed—at most, welfare $$ plays small role; – Concern that imposition of family cap might  abortions.

Cont.: Fertility Effects of Policy Maternity leave and fertility: –FMLA: Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993: quite controversial: US is only industrialized not to guarantee paid maternity leave; requiring firms to finance such leave raises costs. Yes evidence that maternity leave might  fertility.

Work/Family Balance in the US “Mommy Track”: by Felice Schwartz in 1989 HBR article. Recent popular media stories: –Professional women leaving workforce due to difficulty in balancing work and family. –For some: motherhood provides natural opportunity for “career change” –Anecdotal evidence can lead to discrimination. –Some empirical evidence, but weak. –Why? Motherhood pay gap? Yes a significant gap but not for college- educated. Yes fertility delay can  gap.

Fertility Transition Longer view of fertility trends 1) Fertility transition: –  fertility from 1870 to 1930s. –Related to economic development (and  agriculture). –Observed in all countries (even newly- developing countries today). –Persistent difficulty in explaining timing; some due to  female education. 2) Baby boom: –Big  fertility from 1945 – –Partially response to delayed fertility and economic growth.

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