Methodological critic of “Resisting the Protectionist Temptation” by Helen Milner Designing Social Inquiry Ayoung Kang (32001)

(1) Restate the author’s major research question and theories (or hypotheses) in “if, then” type of generalization Background: Int’l Economy in the 70s Recession, oil shocks, Trading Bloc (EC), Increasing Non-tariff barriers, Violation of GATT regulations, Protection for both import and export industries Milner insists: However, the int’l system remained relatively liberal.

Puzzle: why major industrial sectors of the advanced industrial states stayed open despite the economic and political troubles of the 1970s? Hypothesis: If international economic interdependence increases, it affects national preferences and trade policies to maintain a liberal trade system by influencing the preferences of industries and firms.

Independent VariableDependent Variable Economic interdependence (Export dependence,multinationality, and Foreign investment) Preferences for protectionism at the level of the firms and industries High interdependence  Preference for anti- protectionism

(2) Assess the definitions the author had adopted for his independent and dependent variables and whether they are adequately used. Protectionism Govt’s policy restricts or restrains international trade, often done with the intent of protecting local businesses and jobs from foreign competition. Broad meaning, RTA–new face of protectionism In this paper, narrow meaning than general definition without defining it..

Economic interdependence a broader concept in the form of exports, imports, multinational production, and global intra-firm trade. While France was more trade dependent within the EC, the US was more dependent on multinational firms. Both countries showed similar levels of integration into the international economy

Export dependence Certain level of export dependence accelerates open trade regime, however this doesn’t mean that higher export dependence leads policies towards freer trade.

(3) Evaluate the procedures used in measuring variables and the tests devised to show causal relationship between the author's IVs and DV (here I want you to critique the author's selection of the cases.) Where the author’s method has shortcomings, show how it might have been improved.

Sample Selection 18 different industries under the highest levels of import competition and economic difficulties ① controlling omitted variable bias IVs: Economic interdependence (Export dependence, multinationality, and Foreign investment) Omitted IV: import competition - high import competition  Preferences for Protectionism (DV) - no Multicollinearity with other IVs

② Limited number of samples (#<20) “For intermediate cases, preferences were complex as they wanted limited or selective protection”  samples can vary widely on the level of variable (Comparison between domestic firms and MNCs at the highest levels of import competition)