Duet Private Equity Ltd September 2010 Rob Clayton, Director APB Annual Seminar: The Need for Non-Bank Sources of Capital for Real Estate Debt.

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Presentation transcript:

Duet Private Equity Ltd September 2010 Rob Clayton, Director APB Annual Seminar: The Need for Non-Bank Sources of Capital for Real Estate Debt

Our Sponsors 2 Duet Group DUET is an alternative asset and wealth management firm established in Total AUM is in excess of $2bn. Duet has sponsored 17 funds including private equity, real estate, hedge funds and structured investments Forum Partners Forum Partners is a global real estate investment management firm established in Total AUM over $2bn on behalf of institutional and individual investors worldwide Forum Partners specializes in investing in leading and emerging listed and private real estate companies, and has invested in over 70 companies in 21 countries in Asia, Europe and North America. Sponsors

The Fund 3 Source: Real Estate Capital European Real Estate Debt Fund

Topics 4 1.Commercial Real Estate –How much is it? –What is it? –Who did it? –Where is it? –What is it secured by? 2.Bank lending today 3.The ‘importance’ of CRE lending 4.CRE lending growth 2000 – Banks’ need to de-gear 6.Regulation Topics

Around €1trn of European CRE debt Around 15% in CMBS and 85% in banks Slightly more than 50% situated in UK and Germany Around 50% due to be refinanced by end 2013 European CRE Debt 5 Loans Outstanding: Who Did it?Where is it? Source: Standard & Poor's Commercial Real Estate Debt in Europe Source : CBRE

European CRE Debt 6 What Is It? ‘High’ LTV debt: 40% ‘Perfect Storm’ debt: 20% Commercial Real Estate Debt in Europe Source: CBRE

Asset Market Background: UK 7 Real Estate Asset & Debt Market Conditions Source: CBRE CBRE Monthly Index, Capital GrowthCBRE Monthly Index Prime and Secondary – Capital Growth to June 2010 Source: CBRE

Asset Market Background: Europe 8 Real Estate Asset & Debt Market Conditions CBRE Eurozone Capital Value Index Source: CBRE

AarealEurohypo AvivaFortis Barclays BankHandelsbanken Bayerische LandesbankHelaba Berliner HypHSBC BLMEING CalyonLandesbank Berlin Canada LifeLBBW (Stuttgart) Coutts & CoMunich Hyp DEKANationwide BS DeutscheNord LB / Deutsche Hypo Deutsche PfandbriefSantander Deutsche PostbankSociete General DG HypWest Immo Bank Lending to UK Commercial Real Estate Lenders 9 Source: Duet, September 2010 Split of UK CRE loans outstanding at the end of 2008 split by lending institution Current Lenders include: Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates

CRE Lending Growth 10 Source: Goldman Sachs, Bank of England, Jones Lang LaSalle Bank Lending to UK Commercial Real Estate December 2000 – CRE lending accounted for 20% of lending to UK non-financials March 2009 CRE lending accounted for 40% Debt Market Growth

The Need to De-Leverage 11 Degearing Source: ECB, Morgan Stanley Research Funding Gap Total Senior Debt Maturing, (€m) Source: Dealogic, DataStream, Barclays Capital * Not covered, estimates are Datastream consensus

Regulation 12 Regulation Source: FT Research / BIS