The Real Majors Ray H. Killam, CFSP, CFC Amgraf, Inc. April 13, 2002

What Defines a “Major?” Industry Size (Revenues)? Channel? Profitability? Leadership? Longevity?

Categories of Companies Major Directs Regional Directs Independents Distributors Specialty Specialized Channels Franchises Technology

The “Forms” Industry Declining profits Consolidation Exit strategies Diversification Technological changes Changing industry Trade Associations

History of Change Explosive growth- Mainframe computing Introduction of “APA” printers Sheet printing Roll processing Xerox Docutech Digital color Internet and WWW eCommerce

So, Who Are The Real Majors? Traditional Players Technology Players Digital Players Non-Traditional Players

Where’s The Leadership? Technology Forms Innovation Business Solution Innovation eCommerce Innovation

The Forms Conundrum Two camps: –CAS –SVAM The “non-technical, technical” product –Automated layout sheet –Draw wizards –Workflow wizards –Mapping wizards –Management tools

Consider Year “X” Scenario There are many possible outcomes, but here is one that has “reasonable probability”

Future Print Procurement Model Production of most print products will be digital Requisitions will be Internet-based Digital asset management will be essential Inventories of printed products will become obsolete

Future Print Production Model Offset production will become irrelevant Requisition systems will, in reality, become production order systems The real opportunity will be in service, not print Premium will be on distribution Eforms and Iforms will coexist with paper forms

Digital Production Technology continues to improve Costs continue to decline Access to users continues to improve Requirements continue to tighten –Faster –More flexible –Lower costs –Eliminate obsolescence

Digital Production Run lengths can be very small Production can occur when each user requisitions Producing at requisition means inventory can be eliminated Elimination of inventory means no obsolescence risk or cost

Enablers Digital asset management will continue to improve giving immediate access to file worldwide Document management will be vital New digital technologies will emerge, such as electro coagulation? Order management systems will be developed

Predictions Offset production facilities will become increasingly specialized and eventually irrelevant Requisition systems will become, in reality, production order systems Pre-press systems will become pre-flight systems and will be pushed to the user level

Predictions Print demand will grow - users want it Bindery requirements will be very important, but options will tend to standardize For print providers, the real sale will be in the service not the product Product production will be a commodity

Another Prediction Professional print manufacturers will appear as a “printer device” icon on PCs to output digital files directly to the manufacturer. This service will include file pre-flighting, print and bindery order forms, and payment capabilities.

Recommendations Embrace technology in your business. Learn how to use it yourself. Look for opportunities to sell technology-based solutions to your customers. Develop business models for revenue and profit. Keep your company firmly planted in reality while moving toward the future. Don’t go to the bleeding edge. Get even closer to your customers.

Who Will The “Majors” Be? Change Oriented Technology Competent Customer Focused Financially Strong Innovative