Enrollment to 2054 Dr. Jim Hundrieser Plymouth State University

What is your desired future state? Student Enrollment CheaperMoreBetter

What is your desired future state? Shape class Current market penetration Competition analysis Goals: Increase SAT/ACT to 1200 Increase first to second year retention to 82% Increase grad rate to 60% Increase new student Demographics Academic offerings Price sensitivity Goals: Increase new student class by 3% per year Increase transfer class by 5% per year Increase new and graduate more students Program delivery styles Co-Curricular offerings Goals: Increase new students by 5% every other year Increase second to third year rate to 75% © Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved

Rising college costs Declining yield rates Shifting demographics Increased discounting Decreased purchasing power of federal aid Increased family borrowing Colleges were facing six major issues in managing affordability

Students’ ability to pay Both elements must be present for a student to enroll Students’ willingness to pay Financial aid strategy must consist of two criteria What is the reality of higher education

Students aren’t learning We need to increase attainment We need to truly educate the 21 st century student Our systems must be more productive and more expanisive What is the reality facing higher education?

First Generation Adult Low Income Traditional Minority Who is the 21 st Century Student Traditional And Some Non- Trads

To increase the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025.

Future degree need predictions Between 2008 and 2018, The U.S. economy will create 46.8 million job openings from new jobs and retirement million of these job vacancies will be for those with postsecondary credentials. 16 million will require a bachelors degree. Only 17.9 million will be for high school graduates and dropouts. 63% of job openings will require some postsecondary training beyond high school by Source: Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

Impact of the economic crisis on student college planning 46% report that the current economic crisis has caused them to reconsider the schools to which they apply or may attend (up from 34% last year) Avoiding private school options—26% (11%) Commuting instead of living on campus—25% (13%) Working while going to school—25% (21%) Not attending college at all—1% (2%) © 2010 Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations Report: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students

©2010, Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved 2010 Noel-Levitz Sophomore Survey And about half of all second year students report college financing concerns

Trends in College Pricing, © The College Board. Reproduced with permission. Average tuition, fee, room and board charges in constant 2010 dollars, to

Average net revenue per student (tuition, fees, room, and board) ©2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc Discounting Report

Copyright © 2010, Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, and Accountability.

Overall discount rates jumped for fall 2009 after a decade of relative stability ©2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc Discounting Report

And the percentage of freshmen receiving institutional grants is on the rise © NACUBO 2009 Tuition Discounting Study. Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted, published, or distributed without permission from NACUBO

© 2010 Noel-Levitz, Inc. E-Expectations 2010: Focusing your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students Value of interactive Web features

Net cost calculators have the potential to dramatically shift the college cost conversation Based on first 175,000+ contacts of Noel-Levitz published TrueCost Calculators™ – June 2011

Percentage of students satisfied or very satisfied with their overall experience © 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Report

Total Degrees Table 1: Total fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions by type of institution: 1963 through 2009 Year and TypeTotal Enr4-Year Public% of Total Enr 2-Year Public% of Total Enr 4-Year Private% of Total Enr 2-Year Private % of Total Enr 19634,779,6092,341,46849%739,81115%1,587,78033%110,5502% 19708,580,8874,232,72249%2,195,41226%2,028,78024%123,9731% ,096,8955,128,61242%4,328,78236%2,441,99620%197,5052% ,818,6375,848,24242%4,996,47536%2,730,31220%243,6082% ,312,2896,055,39840%5,697,38837%3,308,46022%251,0432% ,427,7117,709,19738%7,101,44535%5,197,10825%419,9612% Growth %327%229% 860% 227% 280% Compounded Annual Growth Rate 3.2%2.6% 5.0% 2.6% 2.9%

Total Enrollment Table 1: Total fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions by type of institution: 1963 through 2009 Year and TypeTotal Enr4-Year Public% of Total Enr 2-Year Public% of Total Enr 4-Year Private% of Total Enr 2-Year Private % of Total Enr 19634,779,6092,341,46849%739,81115%1,587,78033%110,5502% 19708,580,8874,232,72249%2,195,41226%2,028,78024%123,9731% ,096,8955,128,61242%4,328,78236%2,441,99620%197,5052% ,818,6375,848,24242%4,996,47536%2,730,31220%243,6082% ,312,2896,055,39840%5,697,38837%3,308,46022%251,0432% ,427,7117,709,19738%7,101,44535%5,197,10825%419,9612% Growth %327%229% 860% 227% 280% Compounded Annual Growth Rate 3.2%2.6% 5.0% 2.6% 2.9%

Graduation Rates over 20 Year Table 10: Percentage four-year college students who earn a degree within five years of entry: (in five-year increments) Public Institutions47.9%46.1%41.9%42.3%43.4% Private Institutions57.8%57.5%55.5%57.4%57.2% All Four-Year Institutions54.9%54.0%51.2%51.8%52.3%

Six in ten college presidents say the system of higher education in this country is headed in the right direction, but a substantial minority (38%) say it is headed in the wrong direction. © Copyright 2011, Pew Research Center: Is College Worth It

Student Enrollment Funnel Foundation of Practice

Competition, market demand, and institutional strength MARKET DEMAND: What students want – Relevance COMPETITION: Unoccupied market positions – Differentiation PROGRAM: What we do best – Authenticity

A rubric for analyzing your student markets: current state and future state (3-5 years out) Student Market Cost of Attendance Institutional Gift Aid State/Feder al Gift Aid External Gift Aid Net Charges First-Year Transfers Graduate Students Non-Degree Student Market Federal Sub loans Federal Unsub. loans Parent loans Private loans WorkStudent/ Family Payment First-Year Transfers Graduate Students Non-Degree

What student markets do you currently serve and how do they finance your cost of attendance? How is their ability to finance your cost of attendance likely to change over the next 3-5 years? What strategies will you adopt to help your students manage your cost of attendance? Do you have a pricing and positioning strategy?

Selectivity/Dema nd Cost of Attendance or Net Charges High cost, high selectivityHigh cost, low selectivity Low cost, low selectivityLow cost, high selectivity

Selectivity/Demand Cost of Attendance or Net Charges N=21 N=35 N=4 N=14 Competitor analysis (lost admits) N=10 N=5 N=3

Execute on known fundamentals Package financial aid early to provide maximum time for financial planning Make the financial aid award mirror the first bill (estimated balance due, payment plan options with amounts) Assess student award reaction and aggressively intervene with families who want your institution, but are having difficulty developing a financial strategy Communicate net cost of attendance early and often (view the federal net price calculator requirement as an opportunity)

Looking ahead to the 2054 Erosion of a flat-fee rate Financial aid process more and more web-based Our process will be more complicated; not less = Implications for staff/staffing Likely 10 to 15+ years before we really address cost, affordability, and realities linked to degree completion Financial aid leveraging moves us more and more away from fair/equal and into yield based on market share

My Thanks to You!