Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond Center on Education and the Workforce March 6th 2009

Figure 1: The Jobs are trending and will continue to trend downwards Establishment Employment (in millions) Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Figure 2: Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most negatively affected by recessions demonstrating the task before the Workforce Investment Boards Unemployment by education Level Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Figure 2b: Most current data on unemployment by education level Unemployment by education Level

Tom Toles Washingington Post, The experts have their say on the depth and length of the recession. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Source: The Washington Post, Match 4 th 2009

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Figure 3: ¿¿¿ Will it ever end??? Establishment Employment (in Millions) Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Figure 4: The business cycle: We need think about acting in a recession as setting the grounds for recovery Establishment Employment (in Millions) Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

Topics of discussion Job growth by industry and occupation The Education and training requirements of stimulus jobs Training in the recession and recovery And what about “Green” Jobs? – Many emerging jobs can’t be predicted easily Thinking beyond the recession Our ongoing research

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Table 1: What Types of Jobs? (The Highlights) GeneralSpecific Infrastructure Weatherization Fixing and upgrading road and bridges Creation of new and improvement of commuter and light rail transit Clean Water, Flood Control and Environmental Restoration Expanding broadband services Modernizing more than 75% of federal buildings and improve the energy efficiency of two million American homes. Health CareMaintenance of Medicaid programs Implementation of computerized Health care Technology Science and TechnologyStudy of genetic disorders Doubling the production of alternative energy in the next 3 years. Climate Science and bio fuels Education SystemsState Fiscal Stabilization Fund Local School Districts Fund Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act The White House, February 2009

Figure 5: A Breakdown of Jobs by Industry, Obama Administration’s Plan for Jobs based on the Stimulus Package. –Construction (18%), Retail (15%), Hospitality (14%) and Manufacturing (11%) produce 60% of the Jobs Source: Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their estimates of the effects by industry from Mark Zandi’s “The Economic Impact of a $600 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package,” Moody’s Economy.com, November 28th Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 6: Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus Jobs by Occupation. The Majority of these jobs (59%) will be in Managerial (17%), Service (15%), Construction (14%) and Sales (14%) related occupations. Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of March CPS data, (pooled sample) Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 7: Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs. Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, % College Jobs 54% non-College Jobs

This is not you father’s WPA Non-College Jobs require formal and informal training Many jobs require extensive experience Mapping skill sets to emerging jobs will be an important function to move the unemployed from one trade to another O*NET might be key ( more discussion later)

*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 Figure 8: Many of the non-college jobs * require Employer-Provided Classroom Training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation and other training.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 *Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree. Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Figure 9: Many of these non-college jobs * also require Informal On-the- Job Training

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009 *Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree. Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Figure 10: Work Experience is Required for non-College Jobs *

Figure 11: Registered Apprenticeship Training Required for non-College Jobs in the Stimulus Package* *Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree. Apprenticeships presented in this chart are those with a registered US Department of Labor program that provide a certificate of completion. They represent approximately 25-50% of all Apprenticeship programs in the United States. (This number is a rough estimate provided by industry experts. Estimates of unregistered apprenticeship programs are difficult to obtain). Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 12: Employment Impact of the Stimulus Package By State- While the numbers differ the per capita impact is fairly even Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: State-by-State Impact, The White House, February 2009

WSJ estimates 1/27/09 info-STIMULUS0109.html Table 2: Large numbers of training dollars will flow to the states quickly but in per capita terms coverage varies widely: Alaska-$20 per capita, California -$13.80, Iowa -$5.46 Job Training Alabama31,416,013KY48,165,776ND8,761,506 Alaska13,715,640La43,401,452Ohio155,039,850 Arizona48,538,123Maine11,934,126Oklahoma23,305,408 Arkansas27,607,040MD34,576,551Oregon39,414,636 California507,839,639MA60,581,167Pa103,928,168 Colorado32,525,697MI200,786,089RI15,238,027 Conn31,929,081Minn47,418,790SC65,977,433 Delaware7,020,525Miss46,179,669SD8,573,825 DC10,657,624Missouri69,653,391Tenn68,591,645 Florida149,882,674Montana9,259,009Texas196,591,556 Georgia91,984,831NE10,982,375Utah15,033,125 Hawaii7,625,013Nevada26,232,582Vermont6,978,923 Idaho10,254,185NH8,150,501Virginia39,295,584 Illinois163,074,364NJ65,122,101Wash56,799,208 Indiana60,372,907NM15,888,368WVa14,647,874 Iowa16,390,905NY189,868,406Wisc42,542,980 Kansas19,106,629NC81,338,934Wy7,322,768 Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Training in the recession Substantial amounts of money in the stimulus package are devoted to training These monies are mandated to be spent quickly The timeliness of the problem demands training occur through existing channels to meet the requirements of today’s “shovel- ready jobs” Stimulus bill allows education and training to extend UI. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Training in the recession cont’d We can expect increased demand for short- term training Currently, specific size of this demand is difficult to predict until the pool of skills of the unemployed is utilized Current technology holds promise to improve the understanding of employer demand Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Current Technological Advances Data Systems are evolving The future of training systems suggests that real time job openings data are able to provide quick and accurate snapshots of job demand and thus help predict changing training needs LED and LEHD data provide trend and extensive local data O*NET can be used to understand skill transferability as well as better targeting training

And What about ‘Green Jobs’ Green jobs reference the “Green Jobs Act of 2007” which was later included in the Energy Security and Independence Act Unlike other workforce efforts focusing on Industry or Occupation green jobs are defined by their impact on the environment Innovative job creation and training offers a unique opening for workforce development in that new jobs can be created. While ripe for abuse (relabeling old jobs) Jobs can be grown through Green Job Monies Yesterday’s Civilian Conservation Corps can become today’s Green Jobs Corps Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Thinking Beyond the Recession I The stimulus will deliver monies that can leverage the existing training system to evolve if people on the ground are not overwhelmed by crisis and see that recovery follows. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Thinking Beyond the Recession II Accelerated Curricula and Course Clusters can provide training that is responsive to evolving workforce needs. Longer term employment projections still suggest extensive growth in education demand for some college and above. The story is not all middle-skill jobs either. The middle-skill story derives from BLS truncating education demand; A method BLS, is changing. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Highest Education Level Attained %age Change Less than high school % High School Diploma % Some College % Less than an Associate’s Degree % Associate’s Degree % Bachelor’s Degree % Graduate Degree % AA degree and higher % Total150.6 million166.2 million 10.4% Table 3: Projected Demand for Education to 2016, CEW estimates (in millions) Source: Center’s calculations of projections in the demand for education using March CPS data, various years

Conclusion The recession will bring relatively high unemployment especially among marginalized populations. Unemployment among BAs and Graduates is pushing 4% while High School and Less is bridging 12% The Stimulus purposely distributes monies through the existing WIA channels because this is where the ‘Rubber hits the Road’ Thinking beyond the recession gives opportunity to leverage training monies towards new, innovative, and fluid training systems built on signaling from real time data, and delivered via accelerated curricula, when appropriate Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Ongoing research at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce We are engaging the Department of Labor and other groups to develop the use of Real Time Job Openings as a tool for Workforce Development. We are adjusting current employment projections for the effects of the recession and stimulus Once the adjustments are made nationally we will reproduce in-depth analyses at that state and sub-state levels. Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009