Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release Rick Bissell, PhD Brian Maguire, DrPH David McEntire, PhD Gavin Smith, PhD

Catastrophes  CNN Report: Climate Change “Catastrophic” ,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change -300 million vulnerable to climate change in This number is set to double by /index.html 2. Global Humanitarian Forum: Human Impact Report: Climate Change -- The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis

New/Enhance Secondary Catastrophes  Mass migration from newly uninhabitable lands becomes a catastrophe in itself. -So. Pacific island countries, heavily populated lowland countries (Bangladesh, Netherlands, etc) and cities (NYC?, NOLA? Miami?) -Desertification in Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America

Oldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and Powerful  Hurricanes  Flooding  Drought  Heat waves  Epidemics/pandemics

Oldies but Goodies, Now More Complex  Networked and articulated electrical power systems  Networked and vulnerable information systems  Networked and articulated supplies delivery and management systems -See work of Lagadec, et al

Expiration of Resources  Petroleum  Natural gas  Potable and irrigation water  Food

Violent Conflicts  Competition for scarce resources  Changing world order  Increasingly lethal weapons, with wider distribution  Rise of terrorism  “Rogue” states

Cumulative Effects-> More Catastrophes  Loss of arable land and useable water leads to increased food shortage  Increased desperation leads to mass migration, violence, or both  Increased intensity of storms presents many direct dangers, but also can contribute to loss of arable land, useable water and food.

What to Do?  Mitigation: many worldwide attempts to mitigate climate change and its effects  Preparedness: -Many European and Asian countries preparing for direct effects. -Some intercontinental preparedness activities (Lagadec, et al) -FEMA, three approaches

FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes  Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions, with traditional “top-down” plans and exercises.  Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions with “bottom-up” plans and exercises.  EMI course on catastrophe readiness and response.

Charge  Develop a new course for upper division undergraduates and graduate students on the tasks necessary for planning, preparedness for and response to catastrophes.

Assumptions  Catastrophes are fundamentally different from run of the mill disasters -Lack of immediate mutual aid -Affect interlocked systems of communications, power, transport, food delivery, health care, national commerce -Span multiple jurisdictions and levels of government; overwhelming complexity -Response is not just more of the same

Assumptions - 2  Future EMs will face more catastrophes and more severe ones  Political authorities will depend on EMs for guidance  International assistance (US receiving as well as US providing) will become more common among North Atlantic countries

Assumptions - 3  All-hazards planning is not up to the task; scenario-specific planning is required to deal with hypercomplex events  Flexibility and unconventional responses will be even more important, and they can be learned and planned

Expectations  Course instructors may not have deep background in this field; instructor guidance needs to be comprehensive.  FEMA catastrophe planning provides good examples, but it is rapidly changing.  Students will need to do much background reading (10-15 hrs/wk).

Course Structure  15-week semester 3 credit hours  11 core sessions, 2 case studies, 1 tabletop exercise, 1 summary and final exam, and at least 3 add-on sessions  Each session has some kind of class exercise.  Designed for in-class; easily converted to online.

Sessions 1 & 2  1. Course Introduction: Definitions, Background, Differences Between Disasters and Catastrophes -Lead developer: Bissell -Status: Available for review and comments  2. Mechanisms of Past and Future Catastrophes -Lead developer: Bissell -Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 3-5  Session 3: Variables and Relationships -Lead developer: David McEntire -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 4: Ethics -Lead developer: Anna Schwab -Status: Will be available 1 July 09  Session 5: Political and Legal Issues -Lead developer: John Pine -Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 6-7  Session 6: Social and Economic Issues -Lead developer: Kevin Simmons -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 7: Logistics, Critical Infrastructure and Public Health -Developers: Tricia Wachtendorf, Rick Bissell, Drew Bumbak -Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 8-10  Session 8: Mass Relocation -Lead developer: Anthony Oliver-Smith -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 9: Planning Strategies and Skills: Response -Lead developer: Brian Maguire -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 10: Planning Strategies and Skills: Recovery/Reconstruction -Lead developer: Gavin Smith -Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions  Session 11: Emergent Organizations and Networks -Lead developer: Tricia Wachtendorf -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 12: NMSZ and New Catastrophe Planning Methods -Lead developers: Scott Wells, Jasmin Ruback -Status: Expected by July  Session 13: Case Study: Pandemic Flu -Lead developers: Bissell and Tom Kirsch -Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions  Session 14: Tabletop Exercise -Lead developer: Myra Socher -Status: Available for review and comments  Session 15: Summary and Exam -Lead developer: Bissell -Status: Expected by July

Add-on Sessions  Leadership -Lead developer: TBA  North Atlantic Collaboration -Lead developer: Erwan Lagadec  Catastrophe Mental Health / PTSD -Lead developer: Jeff Mitchell

Institutional Partners  Center for Transatlantic Relations & the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Lagadec)

Questions???

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