Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer German Council of Environmental Advisors (SRU) EEAC Workshop Transition to a Low Carbon Energy System in Europe Brussels, October 4 th, 2011 Cost-Optimized Pathways to 100% Renewable Electricity by 2050 Scenario Results for EU 27

2 Structure of the presentation The SRU scenarios The potential for renewable electricity generation Security of supply in 2050 Installed renewable capacities by country in 2050 Imports and exports by country in 2050 The necessary grid connections Electricity costs by country 2050 The transition pathway (the case of Germany) The electricity costs during the transition (the case of Germany) Conclusions

3 100% renewable electricity The eight SRU scenarios Demand DE 2050: 500 TWh/a Demand DE 2050: 700 TWh/a Autonomous GermanyScenario 1.a DE-100 % SV-500 Scenario 1.b DE-100 % SV % REN production in Germany Exchange with DK/NO Scenario 2.1.a DE-NO/DK-100 % SV-500 Scenario 2.1.b DE-NO/DK-100 % SV % Net import max. from DK/NO Scenario 2.2.a DE-NO/DK-85 % SV-500 Scenario 2.2.b DE-NO/DK-85 % SV % Net import from EU-North Africa Scenario 3.a DE-EUNA-85 % SV-500 Scenario 3.b DE-EUNA-85 % SV-700

4 The REMix-Europe model of DLR REMix-Europe (Renewable Energy Mix for Sustainable Electricity Supply in Europe) Inventory of REN- resources GIS, C Linear optimization model GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) Electricity demand GIS, C Source: Krewitt 2009

5 The analyzed region Europe-North Africa

6 The potential for renewable electricity production in EUNA (TWh/a) Demand % of the potential Potential

7 Security of supply Hourly electricity production and storage (DE-DK-NO) The electricity demand is met in every country every hour! (Scenario 2.1.a DE/DK/NO)

8 Installed capacities in all countries in 2050 in GW Scenario 3.a Capacities in GW installed in all countries in 2050 for 100% renewable electricity supply

9 Net imports and exports in 2050 Scenario 3.a Net imports and exports of electricity in the different countries in 2050 in TWh/a and in % of annual domestic electricity demand 15% imports exports Belgium 33%, Luxemburg 66% some imports

10 The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries

11 The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries

12 The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries

13 The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries

14 Production, storage and import costs of electricity in the different countries in 2050 in c/kWh Scenario 3.a Production, storage and import costs in the different countries in 2050 in c/kWh

15 No new conventional plants needed The German pathway 2010 to 2050 Government target for 2020: reduction to 520 TWh/a

16 100% REN possible for Germany by 2030 (based on scenario 2.1.a for Germany) Expansion of renewables only slows down after 2023 to allow the operation of conventional power plants of 35 years

17 Cost of climate protection in Germany 2,7-3,7 €c/kWh during the most expensive years Cost compared to moderate price increase in conventional power production (max. 3,7 c/kWh) Compared to high price increase in conv. (max. 2,7 c/kWh) The cost changes in Germany

18 Conclusions 100% renewable electricity supply for Germany and Europe is possible by 2050 (2030 for Germany if needed) The system will mainly be based on wind and solar energy Storage and transmission will be crucial Electricity costs will range from 4 to 8 c/kWh for 32 out of 36 countries Even in the most expensive case of Slovakia cost will be less than 12 c/kWh No new conventional power plants are needed in Germany Now life-time extension for nuclear plants is necessary in Germany The maximum cost difference to conventional power will be less than 4 c/kWh (in Germany) 100% climate protection comes at a surprisingly low cost in the electricity sector

19 Thank you very much for your attention

20 Electricity costs of less than 7 Cent per kWh in 2050 (Germany) 7,0 ct/kWh

21 Impact on Norwegian hydro storage in 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a compared to 2008) Max. level 84 TWh Min. level 0 TWh Norway 2008 Scenario 2.1.a 500 TWh/a Scenario 2.1.b 700 TWh/a min max.

22 Only minimal changes to the Norwegian hydro power system are required 5,6 TWh storage capacity This system alone can be expanded to more than 10 GW pump storage capacity without any new dam! The example of Sira-Kvina

23 The necessary grid capacity for a cooperation DE-DK-NO Scenario 2.1.a Maximum transmission capacities between DE – DK -NO

24 Share of different renewable energy sources in the different countries in 2050 Scenario 3.a Share of different renewable energy sources in all countries in 2050 in %

25 Share of renewable energy sources in the different countries in 2050 Scenario 3.a Share of different renewable energy sources in all countries in 2050 in TWh/a

26 Renewable electricity is the lowest cost long term solution (2.1.a Germany) Cost of renewable electricity including storage and grid costs Conventional electricity, strong price increase Conventional electricity, moderate price increase