Civil War Termination 1816-1997.

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Presentation transcript:

Civil War Termination 1816-1997

10 Deadliest Civil Wars (Based on Battle-Deaths) Greek Independence (180,000) Mexican Caste War/Maya Revolt (200,000) Spanish Civil War (200,000) Afghanistan 1978-1992 (200,000) US Civil War (650,000) Russian Civil War (775,000) Chinese Civil War 1930-1936 (838,000) Vietnam War (985,000) Chinese Civil War 1946-1950 (1,250,000) Chinese Rebellions 1860* to 1873 (2,450,000) Would be even deadlier if battle-deaths prior to China’s entry into the world-system in 1860 were included.

Civil War Outcomes, 1816-1997 Outcome Complete Defeat 101 51.27 7.92 # of Wars Percentage of All Wars Percentage Ending With Formal Agreement Percentage Followed By Massacre Average Duration in Years Percentage Won By Government Complete Defeat 101 51.27 7.92 57.43 2.27 66.34 Surrender With Amnesty 22 11.17 45.45 9.09 2.17 72.73 Cosmetic Concessions 38 19.29 65.79 5.26 3.43 71.05 Genuine Compromise 31 15.74 90.32 3.23 5.19 N / A Stalemate 5 2.54 20.00 0.00 5.57 Governmental advantage has been much less pronounced recently – while governments won about 65% of civil wars from 1816 to 1949, they won 54% of wars between 1950 and 1974 and only 37% of wars terminated since then.

Civil Warfare Over Time 1816 to 1824 1825 to 1849 1850 to 1874 1875 to 1899 1900 to 1924 1925 to 1949 1950 to 1974 1975 to 1997 Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43 Average Battle-Deaths 39,400 27,346 119,423 12,993 45,233 140,980 51, 813 32, 902 Average Battle-Deaths Per 10,000 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.9 4.2 5.0 Average Intensity 24 151 93 89 143 72 134 Average Duration in Years 3.1 1.8 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.4

Intervention Over Time 1816 to 1824 1825 to 1849 1850 to 1874 1875 to 1899 1900 to 1924 1925 to 1949 1950 to 1974 1975 to 1997 Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43 Interv. Freq. 80.00% 36.36% 25.00% 31.25% 34.78% 23.81% 48.72% 51.16% Average Number Actors Per Interv. 1.75 1.50 1.14 2.80 3.63 2.20 2.68 3.95 Average Number Troops Per Interv. Per Actor 54,745 36,674 29,193 14,447 16,217 51,587 20,656 47,914

Intervention Summary No Pro-Rebel Intervention Pro-Rebel Intervention No Pro-Government Intervention 119 (60.41%) 24 (12.18%) Pro-Government Intervention 29 (14.72%) 25 (12.69%)

Government Advantage

Government Advantage

Military Balance and War Outcome

Military Balance, Intervention, and Compromise