Climate change and fisheries: WorldFish Center research and policy priorities Edward Allison Allison Perry Marie-Caroline Badjeck

Physical Temperature Sea level pH Salinity Currents Nutrients Oxygen Ice cover Turbulence & mixing Wind speed & direction Storm frequency & intensity Evaporation Precipitation Runoff Ecological Species distributions Timing of reproduction, migration, abundance Physiology Recruitment Behaviour Sex ratios Calcification rates Upwelling timing & latitude Habitat loss Coral bleaching frequency & severity Disease Algal blooms Fisheries Productivity Distribution Species availability Timing Days at sea Accidents Loss of harbours, homes Damage to productive assets Increased insurance costs Livelihood diversification Ability to plan seasonal livelihood activities Climate-induced changes in fisheries systems

WorldFish climate change research 1.Diagnosing and mapping climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions 2.Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems 3.Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

Vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change IPCC 2001, 2007

Assessing global economic vulnerability Where will climate change impacts on fisheries have the greatest social and economic consequences? Global climate predictions Physical processes Ecological processes Fisheries dynamics

Assessing global economic vulnerability EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries are exposed to predicted climate change SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by fishery- related changes POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability assessment data Exposure 2050 surface temperatures (HadCM3 model, 2 scenarios) Sensitivity (Fisheries dependency – marine and inland) Landings and contribution of fisheries to employment, exports and dietary protein (FAO, World Bank) Adaptive capacity Human development indices (health, education, governance, and economy size) Vulnerability 132 nations Robust to different methods of weighting and combination

Greatest climate change exposure Moderate High No data Low Very low Northern parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas

Strongest dependence on fisheries Moderate High No data Low Very low Asia, Africa, South America

Lowest adaptive capacity Moderate High No data Low Very low Africa, South Asia

Greatest vulnerability Moderate High No data Low Very low Africa, Asia, north-western South America, Russia, Ukraine 2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries Allison et al. (2009)

Highly vulnerable regions Africa 2/3 of most vulnerable countries Very low adaptive capacity High nutritional dependence Marine and inland production closely related to climatic variation Asia High fisheries dependence Heavily exploited marine ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs) Major river fisheries highly vulnerable to climate change South America High exposure Climate-sensitive upwelling fisheries

Global marine fisheries vulnerability QUEST-Fish Coastal ocean physical-ecological dynamics Primary production Fish production Global food and fishmeal markets Socio-economic vulnerability (WFC) Vulnerability assessments: Global Regional (Southeast Asia, West Africa) Non-climatic drivers of change: Population, trade, economic, and policy scenarios

Threatened coral reefs Ω aragonite at CO 2 = 550 ppm

Reef loss: threats to people Reef ecosystem goods and services Food, income, employment, coastal protection, building materials, tourism, exports Poverty and reef-dependent regions 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries Small island states High population density, limited freshwater resources, sensitive economies

Vulnerability of reef-dependent regions Coral Triangle >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food and livelihoods Climate change adaptation in the Coral Triangle Social vulnerability assessments: National-scale (6 countries) Finer-scale : Indonesia Philippines Solomon Islands

Assessing reef-related vulnerability EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which reefs are exposed to predicted climate change (e.g. bleaching) SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by climate- related changes on reefs POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

Sensitivity: Reef dependence People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater: 1.Share of economic activity Contribution to individual/household income Contribution to community/regional/national economy 2.Source of employment Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities 3.Source of nutrients Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

Adaptive capacity Human development indicators Economy (poverty, inequality, debts) Health (life expectancy, child mortality) Education (literacy, school enrolment) Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption) Context-specific indicators Governance (MPAs, LMMAs) Alternative natural resources (other fisheries, agriculture, freshwater) Infrastructure (e.g. roads) Isolation (e.g. distance from urban centres) Remittances

WorldFish climate change research 1.Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions 2.Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems 3.Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

WorldFish climate change research Integrated protected area co-management – supporting environmental governance, climate change mitigation and adaptation (Bangladesh) Strengthening management and enhancing community resilience to climate change (Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi) Poverty alleviation and mangrove conservation: Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services (Solomon Islands) Adapting farming systems and aquaculture production systems to climate variability and change (Bangladesh, Vietnam)

WorldFish climate change research Understanding impacts of climate change in the Nile delta (Egypt) Food security implications (crops) Breeding of salt-tolerant fish strains Projecting future water supply and demand (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia) Building resilience through community-based adaptive management Integrating sustainable small-scale aquaculture into small-holder farms

WorldFish climate change research 1.Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions 2.Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems 3.Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt 1.Lobbying for recognition of fishery and aquaculture sector vulnerabilities in global and regional climate change policy processes (e.g. UNFCC COP 15, Copenhagen, December 2009) 2.Facilitating the inclusion of the fishery sector in national plans of adaptation (NAPA) in WorldFish programme and partner countries 3.Engaging with partners to test and refine community and household- level adaptive processes 4.Link fishery sector actors at different levels with funding for adaptation and mitigation schemes