Impact evaluation of Climate Change interventions Dr Virinder Sharma, DFID India

Current state of play on IE of CC and Environment interventions 2008 Review- Adaptation: evaluations based on qualitative methods »Stakeholder interviews »Lack baselines »Not integrated into project Mitigation: Desk reviews, interviews and short visits Lack of counterfactual analysis Exceptions: PES, Protected areas and Forest conservation

Challenges of conducting IE of CC Environment- Long term lag between intervention and impact ; Environmental & welfare outcomes Adaptation indicators and success? Focused on CB & governance processes Mitigation - how to assess impact on welfare and the adaptation co-benefits Possible approaches: Use behavioural change as a proxy Use indicators of development effectiveness to assess impact on adaptive capacity

Determinants of adaptive capacity  Adaptive capacity is determined by access to and control over livelihood resources  Access and control over these resources are determined by policies, institutions and power structures

SL framework: Determinants of adaptive capacity Livelihood resources Examples HumanKnowledge of climate risks, conservation agriculture skills SocialWomen’s savings and loans groups, farmer-based organizations PhysicalIrrigation infrastructure, seed and grain storage facilities NaturalReliable water source, productive land FinancialMicro-insurance, diversified income sources Policies, institutions and power structures

Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: 14 Household vulnerability indicators

DFID RL projects: IE Methodology Objective: Comprehensive Impact Evaluation based on qualitative and quantitative analysis  Whether there is change, what contributed to change? Is is attributable to the project? Design: Counterfactual analysis; Mix Design and Cross-sectional; difference in difference estimation Instruments: HH schedule; FGD checklist, MoP, LIMES Sample: Random selection of intervention/control groups.  32 MWS Project, 16 MWS Control  Project 1400 hh (64 villages), Control 700 hh (32 villages)

Sample Profile  BPL - 67% (P), 62% (C)  ST- 49% (P), 29% (C)

Socio-economic, Climate/Environment outcomes Increase in Livelihood Assets

Socio-economic, Climate/environment Outcomes Improvement in disaster coping capacity CategoryProject (%)Control (%) Marginal farmers 7466 Small Farmers7577 Medium Farmers88

Critical reflection of IE in CC and Development programmes Climate Change: local vs. macro impacts regional/global) CCA and development: Uncertainty, risk management, vulnerability and resilience (transformative?) Participation approaches (Low income) vs. heterogeneity Political economy/governance issues Application to Government programmes- Physical and Financial achievements vs. Inputs & outputs Outcome budgeting (indicators) outcomes-impact Results Framework Document: success indicators Evidence of effectiveness of funds/interventions; What works- what doesn’t- circumstances-cost Positive examples : Watershed, NREGA/Green Jobs

Potential Impacts of Climate variability in Western Orissa: drought

Potential Impacts of Climate variability in Western Orissa- sand casting/flash floods