1 Air Quality Reanalysis (Translating research to service) 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill Pius Lee 1, Greg Carmichael 2, Yongtao Hu 3, Edward Hyer.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Air Quality Reanalysis (Translating research to service) 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill Pius Lee 1, Greg Carmichael 2, Yongtao Hu 3, Edward Hyer 4, Yang Liu 5, Dick McNider 6, Brad Pierce 7, Arastoo Pour Biazar 6, Ted Russell 3, Scott Spak 2, Youhua Tang 1,8, Hyuncheol Kim 1,8, Li Pan 1,8, Weiwei Chen 1,9 and Daniel Tong 1,8 1 Air Resources Lab., NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD 2 College of Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 3 School of Civil and Environmental Engr., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 4 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 5 Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 6 Department of Atmospheric Science, University Alabama, Huntsville AL 7 National Environmental Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS), Madison, WI 8 Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland College Park, MD 9 Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

2 Constrained Satellite Products Global Assimilation + AQ Assessments + State Implementation Plan Modeling + Rapid deployment of on- demand rapid- response forecasting; e.g., new fuel type,…, etc. + Health Impacts assessments + Demonstration of the impact of observations on AQ distributions + Ingestion of new AQAST products into operations AQAST Project: Air Quality Reanalysis ( Translating Research to Services ) 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill Kim (Poster Tue16)

 This study aims to build a prototype  User friendliness and reliability are keys to success: e.g.. Goal: A user friendly downloadable archive 3 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

4 Applications of Reanalysis 1.Ozone – modeled (~ 3 yr data lag) & monitor (~ 1 yr data lag), both from EPA 2.PM2.5 mass - modeled (~ 3 yr data lag) & monitor (~ 1 yr data lag), both from EPA 3.Air Toxics - benzene, formaldehyde, modeled from EPA, 2005 only (NATA) Reanalysis would be able to provide PM2.5 speciation data with national coverage at county level, which are highly valuable for health effects studies 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

WRF_ARW-MCIP-CMAQ forward model CMAQ WRF-ARW (LCC) (42  -P model Layers) LBC from GFS Projection of endo-domain intermitten sources: Obs’d wild fire and prescribed burns EPA Emissions Inventory + simple obs-based adjustment Hourly 3-D Gridded Chemical Concentration MCIP MODIS- AOD-based adjusted IC, BC: RAQMS C-grid Column integrated AOD C-grid 42  -P met. Layers C-grid 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill Li (Poster Mon31) Tong,Chen (Talks Wed) McQueen (Talk Tue) Huang (Poster Mon41)

CMAQ4.7.1Both CONUS(12 km) & SENEX (4 km) Map projection & gridLambert Conformal & Arakawa C staggering Vert. co-ordinate42 σ-p unevenly spaced levels Gas chemistryCb05 with 156 reactions Aerosol chemistryAero5 with updated evaporation enthalpy Anthropogenic emission 2005NEI as base year, mobile projected using AQS*, area and off-road used CSPR^, point source uses 2012 CEM data WRAP oil and gas emissions data Biogenic emissionBEIS-3.14 Lateral BCRAQM (B. Pierce) 42 vertical layers WRF_ARW-MCIP-CMAQ model physics and chemistry options WRF-ARWBoth North America (12 km) & CONUS (4 km) Map projection & gridLambert Conformal & Arakawa C staggering Vert. co-ordinate 42 σ-p unevenly spaced levels advectionRK3 (Skamarock and Weisman (2008)) SW & LW radiationRRTMG (Iacono et al. 2008)) PBL PhysicsMellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) level 2.5 closure Surface layer schemeMonin-Obukhov Similarity with viscous sub-layer Land Surface ModelNCEP NOAH Cloud MicrophysicsThompson et al. (2008) Cloud convective mixingBetts-Miller-Janjic Mass adjustment AQ forecast: ^12 km nested to 4 km 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

7 Re-configuration of vertical structure: Decision to match GFS (NCEP) sigma Pres (hPa)Z (m) Near surface Top of fully dev PBL tropopause 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

8 Transmittance AIRNow Cloud-obs Photolysis rates Isoprene & PAR done Yet to do 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) AOD Orbit:705 km, 10:30 a.m. descending node (Terra) or 1:30 p.m. ascending node (Aqua) Swath Dimensions: 2330 km (cross track) by 10 km (along track at nadir) Spatial Resolution: 250 m (bands 1-2) 500 m (bands 3-7) 1000 m (bands 8-36) Courtesy :NESDIS 9 National correlation map between AIRNow measurement and MODIS AOD Typically good correlation between surface PM 2.5 and AOD retrieved by MODIS Typically good correlation between surface PM 2.5 and AOD retrieved by MODIS 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

Optimal Interpolation (OI) OI simplifies the extended Kalman filter formulation (Dee et al. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 1998) by limiting the analysis problem to a subset of obs. Obs far away (beyond background error correlation length scale) have no effect in the analysis. Injection of Obs through OI takes place at 1800 UTC daily th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

MODIS AOD & AIRNow PM 2.5 assimilated For initial condition adjustment 11 00Z 06Z 12Z 19Z AIRNOW PM2.5, PM10, Ozone MODIS AOD (Terra and Aqua) 14Z17Z 18Z 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill Tang (Poster Mon35)

12 Analysis field Verification: AIRNOW O 3 & PM 2.5 over CONUS 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

13 Analysis field Verification: AIRNOW O 3 & PM 2.5 over NE

14  WRF for meteorological fields NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 32- km resolution inputs NCEP ADP surface and soundings observational data MODIS landuse data for most recent land cover status 3-D and surface nudging, Noah land-surface model  SMOKE 2.6 for CMAQ ready gridded emissions NEI inventory projected to 2011 using EGAS growth and existing control strategies BEIS3 biogenic emissions based on BELD3 database GOES biomass burning emissions: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/EPA/GBBEP/  CMAQ 4.6 revised to simulate gaseous & PM species SAPRC99 mechanism, AERO4, ISORROPIA thermodynamic, Mass conservation, Updated SOA module (Baek et. al. JGR 2011) for multi- generational oxidation of semi-volatile organic carbons Analysis fields as IC and forecast with Total AOD Assimilation basis for LBCs 12 km 36 km 4 km IC/BC of Base and AOD_DA cases DISCOVER-AQ GA_Tech 4 km 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

15 Analysis field Verification: AIRNOW O 3 & PM 2.5 over BW SIP 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

PM2.5 24h avgObs meanMean biasRMSECorr. Coef. L L42RAQMS L42-Fire L42-Fire1-OI CONUS PM2.5 24h avgObs meanMean biasRMSECorr. Coef. Base With L42-Fire1-OI4 field to derive LBC DISCOVER-AQ GA_Tech 4 km Application of analysis field for State Implementation Planning 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

17  Configured forward-model vertical structure matching that of GFS  The reanalysis forward model is tested and used to generate July 2011 analysis fields for MDE for SIP modeling  Data Set assimilated: RAQMS (MLS, OMI O3, MODIS AOD); HMS Fire; GOES cloud fraction for photolytic rate correction; MODIS AOD; AIRNow O 3, PM 2.5  July 2011 analysis fields was compared to NAQFC simulation results  Next sets: lightning NOx; OMI SO2; PAR adjustment by retrievals  Verification to include data from O 3 lidar network  Begin transition of assimilation algorithm to GSI  Production mode generation of analysis field for 2010 Summary 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

18 EXTRA SLIDES Contact: th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

19 Push towards higher resolution at NCEP productTargeted nextdateRemark GFST878L64 ~ 22kmApril 2014 GDAST574 Enkr/GSI ~ 27 kmApril 2014 GEFST382L64 ~ 35 kmApril 2014~30 members NAM12 km North AmericaAlready in place NAM3 km CONUS nestJuly 2014 NAMOn demand basis 1.3 km limited domain Already in placeFire weather 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill

Thank you for voicing support to NAQFC “I am writing to comment on the Proposed Termination of NWS Ozone Air Quality Predictions … The NAQFC is the only numerical forecast model that is available every day, is fully documented, accessible for evaluation, and shows good forecast skill. It should be retained”. (November , Bill Ryan, PSU) On “The proposal to shelve the $5.4 million National Air Quality Forecasting Capability in March has drawn protests from public health officials…” (January , Dan Vergano, USA Today) 20 November 2012, MDE as Oppose_1 13 th CMAS Oct27-29, 2014, Chapel Hill