1 JAPAN'S SPENT FUEL AND PLUTONIUM MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES Asian Energy Security Project Meeting Beijing, Oct 31-Nov.2, 2007 CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Spent fuel management 3. Plutonium balance 4. Impact of Chetsu Earthquake 5. Conclusion Tadahiro Katsuta and Tatsujiro Suzuki University of Tokyo

2 1. Introduction Japan’s Plutonium Policy: Current Status At the end of 2006, Japan had 25.3t(f) (~37.8t(t)) of separated plutonium in Europe recovered under contracts with BNFL and COGEMA and about 6.7t from its domestic reprocessing plants, i.e. the total is now 44.5 t. On March 31, 2006, the Rokkasho reprocessing plant by JNFL started active testing. If this plant operates at nominal capacity, about 8t of plutonium will be recovered annually. During 2006, 738kg of Pu was separated at Rokkasho plant. Japanese utilities plan to recycle all plutonium, into existing Light Water Reactors (LWRs), but no single reactor has been loaded with MOX fuel as of May Therefore, it is likely that more plutonium will be accumulated once the Rokkasho plant starts operating. Rokkasho plant is now preparing for its full operation planned in early next year.

3 Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant - Owner : JNFL tHM /yr of capacity - 3,000tHM of spent fuel storage capacity. - Active testing started March.31, Plutonium separated and MOX powder was produced in November, Commercial operation: early 2008

4 Table 1. Amount of Spent Fuel at Each Site (As of end of March 2004) Reactor on-site pools are filling up

5 Dry storage Capacity : 5,000 tHM Operation: 2010 (Status : Planned) Construction cost: $0.8 billion (including dry casks) Rokkasho reprocessing plant Storage capacity:3,000tHM (Received 1,776 tHM as of April 2006) Construction cost: $18 billion Mutsu Interim storage site At-reactor storage Storage capacity: 16,940 tHM/16 sites On-site dry cask storage is not allowed by local governments (Fukushima-1 was allowed one time). Three types of spent fuel storage capacity

6 CategoryItems$ billion ReprocessingRokkasho (800tx 40 yrs) Decommissioning ($13 billion) 91.6 HLW storage & transportation From Europe (including HLW swapped for LLW equivalent) 8.8 HLW disposalOnly vitrified waste21.3 TRU disposalBoth From Europe and From Rokkasho 6.8 MOX fuel fabrication 9.9 Total138.5 Report of Study Group on Cost Estimate for Nuclear Fuel Cycle (METI, 2004) Cost Estimates of Rokkasho Project (40-year life time cost)

7 Cost Comparison of Fuel Cycle Options by Japan Atomic Energy Commission (2004) (Yen/kWh)Scenario1 (Current Policy) Scenario 2 (Stop reprocessing after Rokkasho) Scenario 3 (Cancel Rokkasho, Direct Disposal) Scenario 4 (interim storage then decide) Power Gen. Cost ~5.14.5~4.74.7~4.8 Cost due to Policy Change* --0.9~1.5 Total Cost5.25.0~5.15.4~6.25.6~6.3 *Assumes that all nuclear power plants would be shut down due to shortage of spent fuel storage capacity and have to be replaced with fossil-fueled power plants.

8 Figure 1. Cumulative inventory and management of spent fuel in the future Comparison of projected cumulative spent fuel discharges with currently planned storage capacity

9 Spent fuel storage Inflexibilities Although total spent fuel storage capacity is large enough to store spent fuel up to mid-2020s, inflexibilities of spent fuel storage management make situation more complex: –No transfer of spent fuel between utilities is allowed. –Storage pool at Rokkasho plant (3,000tU) is divided into three sections; 1,000tU of PWR spent fuel, 1,000tU of BWR spent fuel and 1,000tU for either type of spent fuel. –Mutsu interim storage facility (5,000 tU) owned by only two utilities; TEPCO (4000 tons), and JAPCO (1,000tU). As a result, some utilities with PWRs may face shortage of spent fuel storage as early as Local mayors and governor of Aomori demand that the recycling program continue in order to guarantee that spent fuel will be removed from the site within 50 years.

10 Figure 3. Management of plutonium (As of March 2004) 3. Plutonium balance Current stockpile

11 Japan’s Pu Stockpile (2006)

12 Figure 4. Future plutonium stockpile until tPu 74tPu 48tPu Assumption (a) Oversea Pu used first (b) Overseas Pu not recycled before 2020 (c) Operation of Rokkasho postponed After 2005 : Demand MOX fuel: From 2012, 9.3 tPu/year/plants x18 plants Monju: re-start from 2010, 0.47tPU/year Supply Rokkasho reprocessing plant: start from 2006 (2 -6tPu/year from , 8tPu/year from 2010) 6tPu 81tPu

13 Progress of MOX fuel program as of September 2006 Electric compan y Start Local Gov’t Consent Licensing Applicatio n License Approve d Note Hokkaid o Tomari2010 TohokuOnagawa2010 TokyoFukushima I-3?(OK)OK Local consent cancelled Kasiwazaki- kariwa-3 ?(OK)OK Same as above ChubuHamaoka-42010OK No local consent system HokurikuShika2010 KansaiTakahama-32007OK Plan suspended Takahama-42007OK Plan suspended ChugokuShimane Negotiation underway with local government ShikokuIkata-32010OK KyusyuGenkai-32010OK JAPCTsuruga Under negotiation Tokai J-PowerOma2010 ? ?

14 Japan's stockpile of separated plutonium Supply [kilograms] the end of 2006 the end of 2005 Separated Plutonium in Japan Tokai Pilot Reprocessing Plant Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant Fuel Fabrication Plant 3,8453,727 Power Plant, etc.1,3541,372 Subtotal6,7535,923 Separated Plutonium in Foreign Storage(fissile) At U.K. reprocessing plant11,36311,395 At France reprocessing plant13,96614,022 Subtotal(fissile, 67% of total)25,32925,417 Total (total) ,775 Demand [kilograms] the end of 2006 the end of 2005 Separation, Import and Use of Plutonium Supply (Tokai+Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant) Usage (Monju, Joyo, Fugen etc.)1183 Total274344

15 Plutonium Balance Change in Japan (2006)

16 Plutonium stockpile owned by Utilities (as of September 2006, tonPuf) In JapanIn OverseaTotal Hokkaido Tohoku Tokyo Chubu Hokuriku0.1 Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu JAPC Total Unit: tons of fissile Plutonium 平成 22 年までに 基で MOX 利用を実施する予定。 実施の当初は海外で加工した MOX 燃料を利用する予定。国内 MOX 燃料加工工場竣工後は、同工 場で製造した MOX 燃料も順次利用予定。

17 Utilities’ Pu stockpile in Japan (kgPuf) [kirogram] The end of FY2006 The end of FY2007 Total Hokkaido Tohoku Tokyo ,025 Chubu Hokuriku31014 Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu JAPC Total7322,1642,897

18 Impact of Advanced Fuel Cycle (GNEP)

19 Impact of Advanced Fuel Cycle (GNEP)

20 Chuetsu Earthquake and its impact on Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Plant(1) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa is the biggest nuclear plant site in Japan, hosting 7 units, total of 7965 MWe net capacity. On July 16, 2007, a strong earthquake occurred at 10:13 am, with a magnitude of M 6.8(JMA scale). Its epicenter was about 16 km north of the site, and its hypocenter below the seabed of the Jo-chuetsu area in Niigata (37.33N, E) At that time, four reactors were in operation (Unit 2,3,4,and 7), and the other three (Unit 1,5, and 6) were in shutdown for planned outages. All of them are now shutdown and safety investigation has started, and it is not clear when plants will be back into operation

21 Chuetsu Earthquake and its impact on Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Plant(2)

22 Siting in Japan would be more difficult Source: Katsuhiko Ishibashi, “Nuclear Plant safety from viewpoint of Seismic Conditions,” (2003

23 Design Base Earthquake and Actual Responses

24 Niigata Earthquake and its Impacts on Kashiwazaki-Kariha Nuclear Plant Source; Tokyo Electric Power

25 Impact of Earthquake TEPCO lost 7GW of planned nuclear capacity, and there was concern about supply during summer peak. –Estimated peak was ~ GW and total planned capacity without nuclear was 58 GW –Emergency power supply arrangements plus start up of old power plants added up about 4.7 GW, and finally peak demand conservation contract saved its peak (~ 1GW), and peak was finally met. TEPCO lost about 600 billion yen(~$5.5 bill) due to the earthquake, resulting in estimated 95 billion yen loss for FY –Future repair cost is uncertain –Need to purchase CO2 credit from overseas

26 Voluntary siting process of HLW disposal facility –In Jan, 2007, Mayor of Toyo-town of Kochi Prefecture officially requested “investigation of feasibility” of HLW disposal facility (first such request made by a town) The town would receive \1 billion just for this investigation. The proposal was accepted by METI, but local opposition stopped the process In Oct. 2007, METI adv. comm. proposed to modify the process –Gov’t can propose to local community HLW Disposal Issues

27 Conclusions (1) Japan continues its reprocessing program, and the Rokkasho reprocessing plant separated 0.7 ton of plutonium during its test operation. Meanwhile plutonium recycling program has made little progress. As a result, Japan’s plutonium stockpile has steadily increased to 44.5 ton. The introduction of advanced fuel cycle would increase cost of fuel cycle and will not likely to reduce area requirements.

28 CONCLUSION (2) The Chuestu earthquake and shutdown of all 7 nuclear plants at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa site have had significant impact on Japan’s nuclear debate. –Safety concerns remain, and future of KK plants are uncertain –Financial risk and CO2 emission increase are also sources of concern