11 juli 2014 Chris Verweijen

Is it a new discussion? The discussion in 1900 – 1920: Will it be diesel, electric or steam in the future !

What will you hear?  Goals to achieve  Bus classification  Trends and topics  Reliability & TCO  Strategy  Conclusions Steps to a sustainable future

Goals to achieve! There are at least 150 different definitions of sustainability We won’t solve that today! What is important for you on this moment in sustainability! Factors may be:  CO2 transition (W-W or T-W)  Emissions: NOx; SOx en CH & PM score (W-W or T-W)  Noise (reduction)  Disturbed view  Use of toxic substances (Batteries!)  Use of natural resources ; Cradle to Cradle & re - use of materials

Classification of Possibilities Once you know your goals, you will be confronted with questions such as..  What are the expected future developments?  How reliable are possible solutions ?  AND: how about the TCO? To match your ambitions: four categories!  Just going on but greener  Moving half way  Going green now  Greening step by step Four categories of buses

First category: just going on – but more sustainable Possibilities:  Driver folowing system  Euro 6  Biogas /CNG  Biofuel  Lightweight bus  GTL etc.

Hybrid bus (Diesel – electric)  Bus with diesel and electric motor; braking energy is stored as electricity and used  Two kinds: parallel en serial  Serial for short distance city traffic;  Parallel for longer driving distances Effects:  Average savings in fuel 15-30%  Purchase costs higher (> € for 12m bus)  Average TCO comparable with standard bus  Proven technology for most manufacturers Second category: major step in the right direction Source: hydrogen bus rapport EU Four categories of buses

Electric (battery) bus  overnight charging in garage  High first costs ( €)  Low energy costs  Too short battery range (200 – 250km) for use on longer or all-day lines; Trolleybus  High initial costs but long living buses  Wire costs a lot of money (construction & maintenance)  Good TCO only by very high patronage Hydrogen bus  Price still very high: 0,9 - 1,5 million €  Interesting for the future  No good TCO in the near future Third category: Going Green Now! – the details Four categories of buses

Fourth Category: Choose for a system in which the battery is charged during the working hours of the bus or use extenders to extend the range of your bus Possibilities: electric (battery) bus or hybrid bus with recharging options Charging inductiv or conductiv Bus with extender (diesel or hydrogen ) Fourth category: greening step by step Four categories of buses

Trends and topics Main points:  Driver instruction programs do help: results up to – 10/15% are reported  Euro VI is still the king of the manufacturers presentations  Gas (CNG / Biogas) is going down in interest:  Manufactures only make them on demand – but don’t promote them any more;  Operators aren't enthusiastic  Logic: the emissions are comparable with Euro VI  A light weight bus can result in – 10% use of diesel  GTL (Gas to Liquid) in Euro VI results in lower emissions (but higher prize) What is interesting for category I

Trends and topics  Number of years to break even point goes down; now around 7-8 years  Maintenance cost are going down  Number of buses sold still growing (Volvo > 2000) What is interesting for category II – the hybrid bus euro VI light weight gas Nice

Trends and topics  Range battery bus still not more than about 200 – 250 km  Possibilities of batteries grow – but very slow  Weight of batteries still high --> number of passengers lower 2000 kg = 25 passengers What is interesting for category III – battery bus

Trends and topics Hydrogen bus:  FC bus roll out started  Now plans for 267 buses in the next years  But up to 8000 (before 2025) are needed to get the TCO price down. What is interesting for category III – Hydrogen bus

Trends and topics  Hybrid plug-in bus now in Stockholm, Oslo and Hamburg.  Plans for Luxembourg and Montreal  Almost ready for normal duty  Short loading time (5-6 minutes) on conductiv loading  Always a big range for your bus  And also a good result (80% lower emission / 65% fuel reduction)  Until now only Volvo and Hybricon What is interesting for category IV – Plug-in hybrid

Trends and topics  The very interesting part of the developments now  Many demonstration projects  Conductive: mostly in Scandinavia, Swiss and Germany  Inductive : mostly in England and Germany  Conductive biggest potential at this moment (loading up to 600kW – working on 1000; inductive up tot 200kW)  Main discussion: the combination:  Battery  charging infrastructure/possibilities  time for loading What is interesting for category IV – Plug-in battery bus

Trends and topics  Trolley 2.0! What is interesting for category IV – in motion charging

The reliability of the buses (12m)  Hybrids almost same as a diesel (18m bit behind)  Trolley very reliable  Hydrogen will be fully reliable in five years from now  Plug-in, CIM and extender will be reliable in some years  Hydrogen extender also in some years The development in time Bus typeNow  I All type I buses *) II All hybrids III Battery bus Trolley Hydrogen IV Plug-in battery bus 12m Plug-in hybrid bus 12m in motion Charging Battery bus+diesel ext. Battery bus+hydrogen ext. LEGENDA Rel. equal to diesel or better Rel. up to 25% worse than diesel Rel. from 25% worse than diesel *) gas bit worse than diesel

The TCO of the buses (12m)  Hybrids almost same as a diesel  Hydrogen will stay very pricy for the coming years  Plug-in very interesting;  Extenders are nice alternative The development in time Bus typeNow  I All type I buses II All hybrids III Battery bus Trolley (heavy = green) ●●●●●● Hydrogen ●●●●●● ●●● IV Plug-in battery bus 12m Plug-in hybrid bus 12m in motion Charging (heavy = green) ●●●●●● Battery bus + diesel extender Battery bus +hydrogen extender LEGENDA TCO equal to diesel or better TCO up to 25% worse than diesel TCO from 25% worse than diesel

Where to use which bus? *)  Serial hybrids are better in the city, Parallel hybrids better on the long stretches  The battery bus has a maximum range of ca 250 km/day. So not suitable for long duties  The trolley / CIM is only suitable for heavy traffic (TCO) – mostly not in rural areas  Diesel, hydrogen, (plug-in) Hybrids and extenders: whole range Some guidelines Bus type / line classification (inner-) City City - Agglo Agglo – Rural BRT/HQBSPeak linesAll day I All type I buses*) II Parallel hybrids*) Serial hybrids*) III Battery bus(< 200km!) **) Trolley*)**) Hydrogen*)**) IV Plug-in battery bus*) Plug-in hybrid bus*) in motion Charging*) Battery bus + diesel ext.*) Battery bus + hydrogen ext.*) LEGENDA Suitable Less suitable *) scheme for 12m buses; different for longer buses! Important for BRT **) if not special for this service

Strategy of choosing: A strategy of choosing the right bus on the right moment. The A – B – C of choosing!

To choose the right bus on the right place: take this three steps: Strategy of choosing: Just an A – B – C! AnalyzeBlendConclude

First step: Analyze:  Sustainability: where are you now & where do you want to be in years?  Moment of change of your buses (degrees of freedom)  Net structure: is a new network plan necessary ?  Net structure: what kind of lines do you have – what kind of buses are needed?  Short / long lines - City / Agglo / regional - Peak / all day – Low / high density / BRT - Trolley lines?  Time in between trips (time to charge ?) and where Strategy of choosing A: Analyze AnalyseBlend Conclude Result :  Global transition planning (what do you want when)  Network structure (optional: Network plan)  Charging point options (optional)

Second step: Blend  Make a planning of the network needs (basis: the network plan):  Divide your buses in categories: length / capacity and moment of renewal (in numbers of buses / categories)  Divide your network in categories: net structure characteristics and technique Strategy of choosing B: Blend (1) AnalyseBlend Conclude Bus type / line classification (inner-) City City- Agglo Agglo - Rural BRT Peak lines All day / 10m bus 12m bus 18m bus 24m bus Trolley (…m)*) / 10m bus 12m bus 18m bus 24m bus Trolley (…m) ↓↓↓↓

Second step: Blend  Make your blend of possibilities (based on TCO / Reliability)  Take the planning matrix of the last sheet  Combine the matrix with the matrix which kind of sustainable bus is usable in each cell  Result : your possible sustainable opportunities on the short and long time (for every matrix cell)  Combine this result with the reliability / TCO of possible systems: wipe out the wrong ones  Result : your real possibilities in the four categories Strategy of choosing B: Blend (2) AnalyseBlend Conclude Result :  Planning # buses / category for renewal each year  Possibilities to choose for each category

Third step: Conclude  Make a list of aspects to make your choice for each year (or combination of years)  Aspects may be: just go on, # different kind of buses, TCO/reliability, possibilities charging in motion, investment costs and so on.  Mind! The discussion charging points / battery capacity / waiting time at stops or in the bus circulation  Make a decision plan with a multi-criteria tool Strategy of choosing C: Conclude AnalyseBlend Conclude Result :  Planning # buses / category / sustainable technique for renewal each year

Strategy of choosing Examples

Strategy of choosing It isn’t easy...

11 juli 2014 Chris Verweijen Conclusions What you want to achieve? Re–arrange your network Analyze your needs Blend your possibilities Conclude what is possible for you And: KEEP IT SIMPLE! Evolution is better than revolution!

Your questions! But: if you make things too complicated...

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