CHINA COUNTRY MARKET ORIENTATION PAUL BURKE | NORTH ASIA REGIONAL DIRECTOR.

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Presentation transcript:

CHINA COUNTRY MARKET ORIENTATION PAUL BURKE | NORTH ASIA REGIONAL DIRECTOR

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Soy Market Overview

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Urbanization in China Source: China Statistical Year Book

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD GDP Growth & Per Capita Income Source: China Statistical Year Book

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Per Capita Food Consumption Source: China Statistical Year Book

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China Feed Production

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Feed Production by Animal Species Source: China Statistical Year Book

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Soy Consumption Growth Source: China Statistical Year Book

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Animal Utilization Production & Consumption Trends

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Animal Utilization Production & Consumption Trends

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Animal Utilization Production & Consumption Trends

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD Human Utilization Consumption Trends Source: Bean Product Committee, China National Food Industry Association

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Soy Production & Consumption Source: National Grain & Oil Information Center

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Soybean Import Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture / National Grain & Oil Information Center

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Soybean Import Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture / National Grain & Oil Information Center

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD U.S. Soybean Export Sales to China Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Seasonality of Soybean Import 2000/ /12 Source: National Grain & Oil Information Center

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Monthly Soybean Imports

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Soybean Processing Capacity NE. China Region 20% NE. China Region 20% Bohai Rim Region 30% Bohai Rim Region 30% E. Coast Region 16% E. Coast Region 16% S. China Region 23% S. China Region 23% China Total Capacity 135 MMT Daily Capacity 0.4 MMT Capacity Utilization 55% China Total Capacity 135 MMT Daily Capacity 0.4 MMT Capacity Utilization 55% Inland Region 11% Inland Region 11%

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Gross Crush Margin Domestic SoybeanImported Soybean RMB Yuan/MT

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Pork/Corn Price Ratio Ratio Breakeven Changes in Pork/Corn Price Ratio (Feb – Jan. 2015)

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Top 15 Producers of Pork, Poultry Meat and Eggs (2012) #Province Prod. (ml. MT) 1Shandong10.5 2Henan9.6 3Sichuan7.4 4Hebei6.9 5Liaoning6.4 6Hunan5.8 7Jiangsu5.7 8Hubei5.2 9Anhui4.9 10Guangdong4.6 11Guangxi4.1 12Jiangxi3.4 13Yunnan3.2 14Jilin3.0 15Heilongjiang2.7 National100.3 % of National83.3 Source: China Statistic Yearbook

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China: Top 15 Aquaculture Producers (2012) Source: China Statistic Yearbook #Province Prod. (ml. MT) 1Guangdong6.20 2Shandong5.78 3Fujian4.06 4Jiangsu4.02 5Hubei3.68 6Liaoning3.48 7Guangxi2.24 8Hunan2.11 9Jiangxi Zhejiang Anhui Sichuan Hebei Henan Hainan0.60 National42.88 % of National94.4

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD USSEC Programs to Build Customer Demand & Preference for U.S. Soy Market and Trade Services

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD USSEC Programs to Build Customer Demand & Preference for U.S. Soy Technical Services – Joint Technical Seminars – Technical Assistance to Feed Millers and Animal Producers

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD USSEC Programs to Build Customer Demand & Preference for U.S. Soy Technical Services – Joint Technical Seminars – Technical Assistance to Feed Millers and Animal Producers

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD USSEC Programs to Build Customer Demand & Preference for U.S. Soy Differentiation of U.S. Soy U. S. Soybean Crushers & Importers Soymeal Dealers Integrators Feed Dealers Animal Producers Feed Millers U.S. SOY  Timely Market Updates and Efficient Logistics  Effective Price Risk Management via CME/CBOT  Sustainable Soy Export Certification  Timely Market Updates and Efficient Logistics  Effective Price Risk Management via CME/CBOT  Sustainable Soy Export Certification  Advantages in Digestible Amino Acids  Better Animal Performance & Profitability  Consistency in Product Quality & Services  Advantages in Digestible Amino Acids  Better Animal Performance & Profitability  Consistency in Product Quality & Services U.S. SOY

U.S. SOY FOR A GROWING WORLD China Market Summary China Is Still a Growing Market but Slower Growth Rate Is Expected China Is a Price Sensitive Market although Some Large Scale Integrators Are Becoming Concerned about Quality Chinese Crushing Industry Has Been Running Far Below Its Capacity – Hedging on Both CBOT and DCE to Secure Crush Margin – Financing Soybean Imports Issues Impacting Soybean Trade – More Resistance to GMO Foods – Biotech Approval Delays – Zero Tolerance on LLP, Potential Threat to Trade – State Owned Companies More Powerful in Market Place

THANK YOU