Changing world systems How do models help us to understand relationships between superpowers? Changing world systems North-south divide This map shows an obvious north-south divide. An ‘old’ view of the world Based on 70s and 80s economic and political geography: The Cold War - USA + Western Europe versus the USSR + Eastern Europe in the ‘north’ The under-developed ‘south’ (leaning either ‘East’ or ‘West’). Stark divide between rich and the poor; very little in between.

Using the figure think about what might dependency theory be?

Dependency theory is based on the notion that there is a group of wealthy states (core) and a periphery of poor underdeveloped states (Third world). Resources are extracted by the core from the periphery to sustain their economic growth and wealth. This is an on going process. According to dependency, theory poverty and underdevelopment in the peripheral states is not the result of tradition or backwardness. It is necessary for the development of capitalism in the core states. In other words the very success of the core states is the cause of underdevelopment of the periphery. This is because of the coercive and exploitative manner by which the peripheral states have been integrated into the world economy.

Dependency theory sees the global economy is characterized by a structured relationship between the core states which, using political, military and economic power extract a surplus from the peripheral countries. Any attempt by the dependent nations to resist the influences of dependency often result in economic sanctions and/or military invasion and control.

So…… Dependency Theory: A dependency pattern The ‘south’ being dependent on the ‘north’ This dependency could come in the form of: Trade – north getting raw materials, south getting technology, manufactured goods and weapons (at high cost) Money – the north as a source of finance, re-financing (debt) and aid. Politics – the north as a military and political ally

How do models help us to understand relationships between superpowers? Dependency Theory exploitation of the South by the North simple core-periphery (Marxist) terms imperial/colonial model little room for development in the periphery. Copy the diagram to show dependency theory Can developing countries (peripheral) ever become developed core countries according to this model? What is the critique of this model?

Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory North-South pattern began to break down in the 1980s because of: Rise of the Asian Tiger economies that broke free from poverty and underdevelopment. Wallerstein’s ideas are partly related to the economic theory of Supercycles (Kondratiev waves) Collapse of USSR and Eastern European communism in 1990 Rise, since 1990, of other major economies i.e. the BRICs Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory views the world as divided into 3, rather than 2:

World Systems Theory Less a theory than a world view core, periphery and semi-periphery BRICs / NICs have a ‘chance’ of further growth BRICs (China) exploit the periphery’s resources i.e. Africa: What is Wallerstein’s view of the world?

Rostow’s take off model – modernisation theory 1960s model linear economic growth create the ‘pre-conditions’ for take off applicable to Asian Tiger economies to some extent. Copy the model. Does it links to Wallersteins theory and dependency theory?

How could this theory influenced world powers and development? Modernisation Theory How could this theory influenced world powers and development? It was so influential that developing countries wanting to create the preconditions for take off by investing in key infrastructure and industries. The Asian Tigers are examples of where this succeeded. How were they able to implement the preconditions for take off?

Who are the exception? Which countries have adopted Rostow’s model and broken the dependency theory? The Asian Tigers Why? USA funding! Both economic support and aid. Why did they do this? – think back to how superpowers can exert and extend their influence. Strong capitalist economies in Asia would contain Communist China.

India and China Why have their economies recently risen? 2 conflicting arguments: Wallerstein argues Europe initiated industrial capitalism. The rise of I and C another stage in the growth and spread of the global economy. A. G Frank argues it’s a shift back to an older world order where I and C were powerful economic forces. The global system was replaced for 500yrs by European hegemony. European powers are the first NICs. Why should the global centre of economic gravity shift from east to west and back again?

Summary of Superpower theory There are several theories which help explain the rise and pattern of superpowers WW Rostow’s ‘Take Off’ model (modernisation theory) is often used to illustrate how countries move from relative underdevelopment, to a state of high mass consumption Not all countries have managed to industrialise and develop AG Frank’s Dependency Theory argues that this is because the developed countries (superpowers and emerging powers) maintain the developing world in a ‘state of underdevelopment’, draining it of: Human capital (‘brain drain’) Resources (minerals, ores, food) This helps maintain the developed world’s lifestyle, cheaply

1770-1850 Industrial Revolution The BRICs, and NICs, have developed in recent decades This suggests some countries have broken free from dependency and developed in the way Rostow’s model suggests Immanuel Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory seeks to model this ‘three sided world’: Wallerstein’s ideas are partly related to the economic theory of Supercycles (Kondratiev waves – see table) These suggest economic growth passes through phases based on key new technologies These new technologies bring growth to particular geographical regions Date and Cycle Technology Location 1770-1850 Industrial Revolution Cotton, steam engines UK 1850-1920 Industrialization Rail, steam ships, iron and steel, Increased involvement of Europe and USA 1920-1945 Motorization Petrochemicals, cars, electricity Increasing dominance of the USA 1945– 1990 Cold war era White goods, consumer goods Rise of Japan and Asian Tigers 1990 onwards Internet, wireless, biotechnology Shifts in production toward India and China 2020 onwards? ???? Asia?

Review Question With reference to different theories put forward, explain why there are shifts in the global centre of economic gravity.