Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’ FLIS Workshop Euroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013 Gilbert Ahamer, Environment Agency Austria © Gilbert Ahamer

What will we see here? Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your paths World systems theory Dependency theory Growth theory Narrative history Neo-classical economics Keynesian economics Political economics Critical geography Quantitative revolution Possibilism Environm. determinism Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”

What will we do here? Act along some of these lines: run your paths Images: Olympia; temple of Zeus, stadium, map of sanctuary contemplate... … & act!

VIEWS FROM SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL GEOGRAPHIES 1. Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 4

The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse  Modernisation theory Modernisation theory  The concept of modernisation tries to replace earlier concepts such as “development” (in case of negative sign: underdevelopment, backwardness) or progress by a value-free term but is never- theless still tacitly used connected with an emphasis on values and teleological orientation. Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 5  Dependency theory Dependency theory  Reason for underdevelopment of countries would not be internal but external factors such as especially colonialism. By executing power the developed countries would succeed in keeping the less developed countries in an ongoing state of poverty.

“Why are some rich and some poor?”  Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth, it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such asgrowth theory  Capital / investment  Soil / land  Labour / workforce  Technology  Education  Human resources  … and cautiously extends out to cultural and political parameters …  … and strongly believes in correlations of points …? Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 6 ?  See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtubegapminderflixxy youtube Are economies converging or diverging over the course of time?

(Hypothesised) timelines of economy  Nikolai D. Kondratieff’s long waves ( Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев, ) figure from Knox & Agnew 1997) Nikolai D. Kondratiefflong waves Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 7  “time geography”

Synopsis of two cyclic theories  1 Kondratieff cycle = 2 Kuznets cycles (figure from Knox & Agnew 1997)Kuznetscycles  The inverse U-shaped Kuznets curve: mathematically, it produces oscillationsKuznets curve  Compare S.’s “precognitive understandings” in history: Oswald Spängler etc.S.’s Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 8

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 9

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 10

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 11

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 12

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 13

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 14

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 15

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 16

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 17

“Big History” Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 18

Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 19 Main types of view of a global future Global Studies is a multi- paradigmatic science!

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN SOCIO- ECONOMIC AND CIVILISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 2. Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 20

Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 21 Representing dynamics globally: data Materials and methods in this step: The “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer ) = Global data sets for – population – land use – economy – energy

Transformation of co-ordinates  Instead of plotting reality as a function of time  We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap  … in order to better perceive structural changes and patterns of global dynamic change = real time: complex graphic structure  evolutionary time of development: simpler graphical structure time tGDP/cap Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 22

Evolving pattern in economic structures … inspired by evolving patterns in energy structures (Marchetti & Nakicenovic at IIASA): Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 23

Growth rates in the global agricultural system Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 24 Detailed explanation of this EU project: read herehere

Structural shifts for energy sources How do percentages of fuels change? change rates of shares shares

We observe the following transitions: Population transition Land use change transition / deforestation tr. Agricultural & food transition Transition of economic sectors Energy transition Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism: design, act and construct the world! Hope = (voluntary) learning effects Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 26

EVOLUTION AND CHANGE IN STRUCTURES OF NEEDS 3. Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 27

A principal evolutionary pattern?  Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve) Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 28 initial value: flow = initial value: flow =

Thinking in paths as a hypothesis means: along evolution towards higher GDP/cap some paths of development are more likely than others Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena: establish correlations example: the “growth literature”: Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human ressources, education, institutional structure... Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 29

A possible overall view on evolution!  Do targets themselves evolve along evolution? ... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance  We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values We see Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 30

A possible genesis of “targets”? Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 31

One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter)  A proposed paradigm (“  –  “ = “up-show”)  Techno-socio-economic evolution  Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950), a colleague of Vernadsky convergence – divergence? Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 32

Paul Raskin: “Transitions” : Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 33  Paul Raskin at SEI and his team produced a seminal book (see ppt in WebCT) Paul RaskinSEI book

Shifting views: a principle along evolution? Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 34

Thank you for your comments and critical questions! !!