Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New Zealand? Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference Doug Clover PhD Candidate Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington

Transport’s contribution to AGW Source: Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, et al. (2007) Source: Ministry of Economic Development, 2007 Source: Ministry for the Environment, 2006

The future of oil? Source: theoildrum.com

EVs - Road

EVs – Road 2

EVs – Mass transit

Comparative vehicle efficiency Source: Simpson, 2005

Well to Wheel efficiency and GHG emissions Source: Simpson, 2005

Comparative energy density of petrol and Li ion battery Comparison based on the Tesla Roadster

Study questions What impact will the increased use of EVs for land transport in New Zealand have on GHG emissions? What impact would EVs have on fossil fuel usage? What impact would the increased use of EVs have on electricity demand and the functioning of the electricity system? – what effect (if any) would this increased use have on the attainment of the Government’s 90% renewable 2025 target?

Evaluating technological transitions How do new technologies arise and what impacts will they have on society? Three generic approaches Point source – new technology arises from an innovative event then develops through stages Transformational – technology innovations have an impact on society and vice versa. Replacement –new technologies compete with old based on price and performance Geels (2004)

Proposed Model Travel demand factors Non EV vehicle costs GHG emissions GHG emissions Carbon price Non-transport demand Electricity demand Electricity price Electricity Sector Model (ESM) Vehicle Transition Model (VTM) EV vehicle development status (performance and cost)

Technology and sustainability Environmental sustainability criteria (OECD 2001) – Use renewable resources efficiently and not exceed long term rate of natural regeneration – Use non-renewable resources efficiently and limit their use so they can be substituted by renewable resources – Limit discharges to be within the assimilative capacity of ecosystems – Avoid actions that have an irreversible effect on the environment Will EVs result in an incremental technological change or a technology transition? “a transition denotes a long-term change in an encompassing system that serves a basic societal function (e.g. food production and consumption, mobility, energy supply and use, communication, etc.).” Elzen (2005)