“Arrange for Change” Interpreting Climate Change in Alaska’s National Parks

One of the first things to understand is that climate science has evolved greatly in recent years – much of the data about climate conditions has grown substantial enough for specific trends to emerge. Scientific consensus about climate change has also evolved. Today, climate scientists are almost in complete agreement that unprecedented climate changes are occurring and that human activities are a reason why. 2 Climate Science Has Come of Age Hand-drawn maps… Early - Super Computers Satellites - High Technology

Throughout Earth’s History - Climate has varied… 3

Agriculture emerges 4.5 o C 1.5 o C This is 10,000 years of climatic stability that enabled humanity to evolve as we know our cultures today The Last 10,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish? IPCC (2007) forecast of about 2-3 o C, with the band of uncertainty 4

Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Fourth Assessment Report (2007) States: The warming of the Earth’s climate system is “unequivocal”. Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (with a confidence of greater than 90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations … There is now higher confidence, than in all prior assessments, in the projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and sea ice. 5

6 In addition, interpreters are getting more questions about “Climate Change” or “Global Warming” from visitors. Although there are no easy answers for many complex science issues, this tool will make it easier to have an informed dialogue with the public and raise awareness about this critical issue of concern for our parks, for our culture. Visitors are asking about Climate Change

Richard Somerville… “The scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change do a good job of assessing the climate – and projecting the implications through models. They aren’t the best ones to communicate about what they find.” Home So, who is the best? Role in Communicating Climate Change 7

The challenge... To clearly explain the meaning of observed changes, and to convey a message of Hope – one that inspires action rather than despair? 8 Role in Communicating Climate Change

To do that, You need to understand the science, and understand your audience; you facilitate a meeting of the two in ways that are relevant and connecting. Do park users think it’s relevant? 9 Role in Communicating Climate Change

2007 study by George Mason Univ: (12,000 adults) 2 of 3 adults view climate change as a serious problem (14% believed it is not a problem) 2 of 3 expressed confidence that we are individually and collectively able to make the changes needed to combat its effects. Their kids said the same thing (3 of 4). 10 Role in Communicating Climate Change

2007 study by George Mason Univ: Both types of perceptions – believing that global warming is a threat to human well-being, and believing that it is within our power to limit its impacts – are important motivators to having people perform actions that do so. “…It appears helpful to convince them both that climate change is a threat, and that there is much we can do through our actions to stop it.” 11 Role in Communicating Climate Change

2007 study by George Mason Univ: Asked respondents how important, or not, 14 specific actions were in terms of “protecting the environment.” On average, 8 of 14 actions were deemed important (notably large). Also asked if they were taking these actions. Average number of actions taken was Role in Communicating Climate Change

NPS Role in Communicating about Climate Change Who, better than the NPS? Who else has better access to the resources, to science and research on-the-ground, and to a cadre of trained communicators who can bring climate literacy to a wide range of diverse audiences? 13 Role in Communicating Climate Change

How? Certainly, parks could address specific local impacts and implications … 14 Role in Communicating Climate Change

How? Certainly, parks could address specific local impacts and implications … 15 Role in Communicating Climate Change

Possible things to develop: Talking Points for each Eco-region (in progress) “Arrange for Change Decision” Tree (in progress) National Communication Plan Coordinated presentations at annual workshops (GWS, NAI, NSTA, APPL) Public accessible web-site ( Develop a “Toolbox” for communicators Hold periodic Web Seminars with scientists More coordinated Inter-agency efforts 16 Role in Communicating Climate Change

Possible audiences to target: - Uninterested in Climate change/Unaware - Climate Science Interested - Climate Science Attentive – Help with Policies - Climate Science Engaged - that’s Us! Approaches that might work: - Tell compelling and complete stories - Avoid presenting changes as unsolvable - Find an optimistic perspective – bring Hope 17 Role in Communicating Climate Change

And provide a full “Suite of Products” that can serve multiple audiences… 18 Role in Communicating Climate Change

19 The challenge for front-line communicators is the complexity of details and huge scope of implications that exist about the issue. Climate change is directly connected to almost every scientific discipline; it effects every living being on the planet, today and into the future. How do interpreters organize the information and choose the most appropriate techniques to convey its meanings effectively? This “Decision Tree” is a “starter” tool that offers interpreters some structure for managing the immense amount of data, and at the same time, organize it so the larger themes and ideas regarding climate change are more accessible to their audiences. The Interpreters’ “Decision Tree” Coastal/marine changes bring severe impacts. Wildlife ranges are changing. Vegetative zones are shifting. Melting ice has worldwide consequences. Earth is warming at an accelerating and unprecedented rate. Wildfire frequency and duration increase. Thawing permafrost has implications. Impacts to indigenous people are severe. Atmospheric chemistry is changing. Multiple influences combine into larger impacts.

Climate Change Decision Tree 20 Let’s examine climate change as if it were a tree… Its branches might represent the various implications of change… An Analogy…

Melting ice has worldwide consequences. Vegetative zones are shifting. Wildlife ranges are changing. Coastal/marine changes bring severe impacts. Multiple influences combine into larger impacts. Atmospheric chemistry is changing. Impacts to indigenous people are severe. Thawing permafrost has implications. Wildfire frequency and duration increase. Earth is warming at an accelerating and unprecedented rate. 21 Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate and much larger changes are projected. Climate Change Decision Tree The tool organizes the information. (Adapted from the key findings, ACIA 2004.)

National Parks are places that connect us to our collective heritage, natural and cultural. Parks can help us make the critical choices that ensure a way of life that’s sustainable for future generations. 22