Alcohol, Oil, and the End of the Cold War LCDR Luke Lazzari

Thesis Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign and the steep drop in oil prices created an economic crisis for the Soviet Union. This economic crisis was a key factor influencing Gorbachev’s decision to exit the Cold War

Introduction What was the Cold War? When did it end? Timeline of events Effects of anti-alcohol campaign and drop in oil prices Conclusion

The End of the Cold War Disintegration of USSR in December 1991? Sometime in 1989? Mikhail Gorbachev’s 1988 speech to the UN? December 1987: Washington Summit and signing of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty –Abandonment of –Marxist/Leninist idea of class struggle –Elimination of entire class of missiles (really two). –First time Soviets agreed to intrusive verification of a treaty

Timeline of Talks and Some Key Events ABM Treaty and SALT Enter Detente Nov 82: Leonid Brezhnev dies. Enter Yuri Andropov 1981: Enter Ronald Reagan Mar 83: Reagan announces SDI Nov 83: Soviets walk out of INF talks Feb 84: Andropov dies. Enter Konstantin Chernenko Mar: Chernenko dies. Enter Mikhail Gorbachev 1977: Soviets begin deployment of SS-20’s in E. Eur. 1979: Invasion of Afghanistan 1979: Jimmy Carter signs and then abandons SALT II ratification efforts Nov: Geneva Summit. Oct: Reykjavik Summit stalls on SDI Dec: Washington Summit, INF Treaty signed Détente in tatters By late 1970s Soviets believe “correlation of forces” moving against them May: Rust lands Cessna in Red Square Feb: International Disarmament Forum in Moscow Feb: Yakovlev Memo to Gorbachev Apr: Anti- Alcohol Campaign decision made Sep: Gorbachev backs away from INF Treaty Nov 84: Reagan reelected Jan: SECSTATE Shultz and Foreign Minister Gromyko create framework for future talks Reagan proposes “zero option,” START Jan 83: Reagan signs NSDD 75 Apr: Chernobyl

Anti-Alcohol Campaign Begun in April 1985 –Cut Vodka production by half by 1987 Reasoning: –Part of the “struggle for communism” Advice against Tax Revenue (B Rubles) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) Retail Sales (% of GDP)

Oil Prices August 1985: Saudi Arabia doubles oil production from 2MBPD to 5MBPD Iran-Iraq War begins

Oil and the Soviet Union and perestroika Oil was the number one source of hard currency –West bought only 6% of Soviet produced equipment USSR was the world's largest importer of grain, which was bought with hard currency. Total Oil Sale Revenue % of GDP In B Rubles

Aleksandr Yakovlev Anatoly Chernyaev

Conclusion The overall state of the Soviet economy was the major reason behind perestroika and Gorbachev’s desire to exit the Cold War. The anti-alcohol campaigns and drop in oil prices exacerbated the structural flaws of the Soviet economy and made negotiating an end to the Cold War imperative.

References Gaidar, Yegor. Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, Malia, Martin E. The Soviet Tragedy: A History of Socialism in Russia, New York: NY: Free Press, Matlock, Jack F. Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended. 1st ed. New York: Random House, Norman A. Graebner, The National Security: Its Theory And Practice, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986), p. 55. Reed, At the Abyss, p Phillip Tauban “Gorbachev Is Feeling the Heat From the South,” March 6, NIAA: InvestorWords.com. "Soviet Spending for Defense: Trends Since 1951 and Prospects for the 1980s," AND+PROSPECTS+FOR+THE+1980S+(SOV&abstract=&no_pages=0052&pub_date=4/1/1982&release_date=1/29/2001&keywords=S OVIET+ANALYSIS|SOVIET+MILITARY+ANALYSIS|SOVIET+ECONOMIC+ANALYSIS|ECONOMIC+MILITARY&case_no=CSI &copyright=0&release_dec=RIPPUB&classification=U&showPage= AND+PROSPECTS+FOR+THE+1980S+(SOV&abstract=&no_pages=0052&pub_date=4/1/1982&release_date=1/29/2001&keywords=S OVIET+ANALYSIS|SOVIET+MILITARY+ANALYSIS|SOVIET+ECONOMIC+ANALYSIS|ECONOMIC+MILITARY&case_no=CSI &copyright=0&release_dec=RIPPUB&classification=U&showPage=0001