World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Climate services for improved disaster risk reduction National – Regional - Global Dr Maryam Golnaraghi Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme WMO

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … Leverage WMO Research and Operational Capacities to Address Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Information Challenge in supporting DRM at all levels

WMO focus on Capacity Development of National meteolrogical, hydrological and climate services within New Paradigm in DRR with focus on Prevention and Preparedness (HFA) Risk TransferRisk Assessment Historical Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response Prevention (Reduction of economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CATastrophe insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training across agencies Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)

Understanding the Risks Provides the Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Impacts: population density agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses Number of lives at risk $ at risk Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption Need for historical and real time data Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis Need for Socio- economic impacts data and analysis tools Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

While economic losses are on the way up! Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Loss of life from hydro- meteorological disasters are decreasing!

Early Warning Systems save lives Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Land zoning Infrastructure and Urban planning Insurance / Finance Agricultural productivity and food security Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Recent advances in seasonal climate forecasting and trend analysis provide unprecedented opportunities….

Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms What type of Financial tools? Which Risks?Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Government Companies Individuals Other Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Financial risks WMO Workshop: /index_en.html

Decisions in Climate Mitigation, Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction are part of holistic risk management strategy Climate Mitigation Emission reduction Climate Adaptation Multi-sectoral planning and risk management Incremental cumulative risk Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes Geological Disaster Risk Management

Example of Seamless meteolrogical, hydrological and climate products and services for risk management and planning across various sectoral stakeholders Season to year Next hour to 10 days Decade Long term Scenarios Weather Forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings Emergency planning activation and response Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses Emergency Services Government Authorities Insurance Public, Media Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones Strategic Planning Building codes Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting Land Zoning and Planning Urban planners Local to national Governments Banks Insurance DECISION MAKERS DECISIONS SERVICES Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones for the next season Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds Government Coastal Zone Managers Insurance Suppliers Negotiators Parlimentarian Local/nationalg overnments Private sector International negotiations and agreements National policies and legilation Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process Emergency Preparedness Sectoral planning and risk reduction

A Journey from Research to Decision-Making Examples of Climate Services for improving Decision-tools in Insurance / Reinsurance Drivers are –Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU, etc) for the companies to report of their climate risk –Industry: Consortium of insurers/re-insurers, leading global climate centers (academia, Risk Analysis Companies (AIR World Wide) have teamed up Funding research and partnering with climate research community (e.g., NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, UK Met Office),, risk modeling companies (AIR World wide), and NMHS to develop relevant climate services and decision tools –Climate Community and NMHS: Vary receptive and have initiated various projects and activities Research Operationnal climate forecasting Risk modelling tools (Re) Insurance decision- making

Importance of understanding global trends and correlations Source: Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank.

Highly Diverse Users of Climate Information at different levels Global: –International policy negotiations –International development and funding agencies –Multi-nationals and global companies (private) Regional –Inter-governmental economic groupings –Regional development banks –Private sector –Multi- and bi-lateral national cooperation and planning National to local –Government and policy applications –Strategic planning (Public and private sectors) –Medium to long-term operational planning (multi-sectoral) –Long term infrastructure planning and development

Reduction of Risks: Life, economics sectors: DRM and civil protection, agriculture, water resource management, infrastructure and planning, urban development, health insurance and financial markets, etc Research and modeling Observations and data Forecasting and analysis tools Regional aspects Products and Service Delivery International aspects Capacity Building Need for Strengthening National and Regional Operational Capacities National aspects, with consideration for evolving DRR policies/legislation/coodination and planning

WMO National Survey to assess Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services technical capacities in support of DRR (2006) 70% need amendments or restructuring of national policies and legislation 67% NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure 80% NMHS need technical and management training 80% of NMHS need strengthening or building multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination and service delivery (QMS and SOPs)

Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO South East Europe (2007- present) Central Asia and Caucasus (2009 – ongoing) South East Asia (early 2010 – ongoing) Central America and Caribbean (2010- ) Special project: WMO Shanghai MH- EWS Demo Type II: Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in end- to-end Multi-Hazard EWS (UNDP, ISDR, World Bank, UNESCO-IOC, CDEMA, CEPREDENAC, IFRC) Mapping WMO DRR ccoperation projects since 2007 to date Type III: Post-Disaster Assistance (in coordination with UN and World bank and multi- lateral cooperation with Members Haiti Pakistan

Conclusions Decisions in disaster risk reduction are interlinked with climate adaptation and mitigation Disaster risk reduction provides new multi- stakeholders mechanisms (national / regional / global) for access to users and identification of their needs Highly diverse user community at different levels (global to local) Need for seamless products from next minute to long- term to adress risk management holistically

Thank You