THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE

Election Demographics

% Of Vote

% of vote

Presidential Campaign Strategies and Issues

Campaign Messages-Economy Romney: – Obama is responsible for the weak economy, high unemployment and poor job creation. – My policies will create 12 million new jobs. Obama: – I inherited a catastrophic economic situation that takes time to fix. – The US economy and jobs are gradually recovering.

Campaign Messages: Taxes Romney: I will reduce all personal tax rates by 20% with offsetting elimination of tax deductions. Obama: Romney won’t say what tax deductions will be eliminated. – Romney’s plan would require eliminating home mortgage interest deductions and other deductions that raise taxes for the Middle Class. – Instead those earning over $250,000 should pay more.

Campaign Ads Obama – defined Romney with early ad blitz. – bought ads at lower candidate rates. Romney – “outsourced” large % of ads to outside groups, which cost more and lost control of the message. Some negative ads backfired for both campaigns.

Ground Game Obama’s ground game was the best in history. Romney’s get-out-the-vote technology had major problems.

Polling Public polls and Obama pollsters got it right. Republican pollsters had a bad night. Online and live phone polls outperformed automated phone polls.

Gaffes and October Surprise Gaffes: – “Legitimate” rape – 47% – Binders full of women – You didn’t build that – Going to put y’all in chains October surprise - Hurricane Sandy benefited Obama and stalled the Romney campaign.

Impact of Other Issues Benghazi Immigration Obamacare Reproductive rights Gay marriage Legalization of marijuana

CAMPAIGN FINANCE The 2012 election is estimated to cost $6 billion The most expensive in history! Factors: Presidential Fundraising Super PACs & Outside Spending Legislative Races Let’s follow the money

2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Republicans & Mitt Romney Raised: $1.13 billion Spent: $1.11 billion Democrats & Barack Obama Raised: $1.08 billion Spent: $957 million

Campaign Expenses $720.1 million$859.9 million Campaign spent 42%Campaign spent 52%Advertising Total Field officesRomney’s $300 millionObama’s $800 million Field Staffer Median Salary/Month Romney’s $6,000Obama’s $3,000

FUNDING SOURCES RNC vs. DNC $351 million Maximum Donation: $30,800. Both parties raised more from $267 million donors giving $5,000 or less. Campaign $413 million Maximum Donation: $2,500. Obma raised more from donors $645 million giving $200 or less. Romney raised more from donors giving over $2,000. Super PACs $203 million Unlimited donations. Of the 16 contributors who donated $2 $75 million million or more to Super PACs, 6 were for Obama; 10 for Romney

FUNDING STRATEGIES Obama’s campaign Done in-house Concentrated on raising funds from small donors Over 4 million individuals contributed to his campaign Many contributed more than once via online or text messages Romney’s campaign Did not raise as much His alignment with outside spending groups allowed him to keep up

Sources of Funding by Sector Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Romney, $52.1 millionObama, $18.7 million Miscellaneous Business Romney, $24.4 million Obama, $19.9 million Lawyers & Lobbyists Romney, $13.6 million Obama, $25.5 million Labor Romney, $3,245 Obama, $413,394 Retirees Romney, $56.3 million Obama, $50 million

BIG SPENDERS G/S – affiliated supporters: $994,239 : Morgan Stanley: $827,255 Credit Suisse Group: $618,941 UC - affiliated supporters: $1,092,906 Microsoft: $761,343 Google, Inc: $737,055 US Government: $627,628 Harvard University: $602,992 JP Morgan Chase & Co: $792,147 Bank Of America: $921,839

SUPER PACS/OUTSIDE GROUPS RESTORE OUR FUTURE $142,645,946 AMERICAN CROSSROADS $124,138,876 PRIORITIES USA ACTION $77,707,200 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE $42,414,344 AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY $33,564,920 (501C) CROSSROADS GPS $22,133,006 (501C) AMERICAN FUTURE FUND $23,619,612 AMERICANS FOR JOB SECURITY $15,872,866 (501C) NRA OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND $9,621,827 SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT’L UNION $16,439,069 US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE $32,676,075 (501C)