4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 1 The Climate Service Center Guy P. Brasseur Irene Fischer-Bruns Climate Service Center - Germany Hamburg

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 2 Weather Prediction compared with Satellite Observations ECMWF predictions and Meteosat observations The First Grand Challenge: Numerical Weather Prediction

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 3 A1B is a typical “business as usual” scenario ( ): ( ) The Second Grand Challenge: Predicting Climate Change

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 4 Courtesy of Julia Slingo The Third Grand Challenge: Understanding the Earth as a Complex Nonlinear Interactive System

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 5 “International framework for climate services that links science-based climate predictions & information with the management of climate-related risks & opportunities in support of adaptation to climate variability & change in both developed & developing countries” WCC-3 Vision To develop an

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 6 Climate projections Global models downscaling Climate Indicators Heat waves, drought/floods Impact studies Socio-economy, Ecosystems, Health Develop Interdisciplinarity Decision support tools Dedicated analyses Interactions with users/stakeholders Support Innovation : eg EIT Energy supply Threshold diurnal amplitude Maize yield change Heat index (ENSEMBLES FP6) Climate Observations From: Sylvie Joussaume

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 7 There are many economic sectors that will benefit from and contribute to Climate Services … Users of climate information

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 8  Energy sector, especially renewable energies Users of climate information

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 9 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 10 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 11 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and urban planning; construction

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 12 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 13 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability  Water management

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 14 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability  Water management  Coastal management; fisheries

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 15 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability  Water management  Coastal management; fisheries  Forestry; land management; landscape protection

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 16 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability  Water management  Coastal management, fisheries  Forestry; land management; landscape protection  Civil protection; environmental security; human health

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 17 Users of climate information  Energy sector, especially renewable energies  Financial services and insurances  Transport, infrastructure; trade and commerce  Regional and and urban planning; construction  Agriculture; food availability  Water management  Coastal management; fisheries  Forestry; land management; landscape protection  Civil protection; environmental security; human health  Tourism and leisure industry

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 18 The Climate Service Center (CSC) was established in Hamburg by the German Federal Government as part of their “High-Tech” strategy to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. Climate Service Center CSC is a federal institution administered by GKSS. It will include 20 staff members (base funding from BMBF) and additional staff supported by external projects (EU, BMBF, states, industry, financial sector, etc.)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 19 Immediate Goals  Coordination and dissemination of user-friendly climate information produced by German institutions  Improved transfer of information from the research to users and initiation of research activity to address users’ requirements  Production of concrete climate-related information to fulfill the stated needs of the users/customers  Synthesis and evaluation of latest outcome of climate and environmental research  Transfer of requests from users to the network of German research institutions

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 20 Longer-term Goals  Developing prediction systems for global, regional, and local prediction of climate change and their impacts on ecosystems, hydrological system, air quality, health in Germany and elsewhere  Development of effective strategies towards reduction and adaption to climate impacts  Contribution to the development of other Climate Services, e.g. in Africa, with emphasis on issues like drought, food availability, forest management, etc.

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 21 It is promoting partnerships to focus on  interactions between science and society  the integration of climate research & application needs PAGE 21 Network & Partnerships (1) The CSC was established as a national, research-based service facility in a strong network of partner institutions

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 22 Partnerships (2)  CSC develops interactions with stakeholders who can benefit from the knowledge provided by the network  It develops decision-making processes to help ensure effective applications of science to societal needs

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 23  The CSC is building up partnerships with - Decision makers in business and industry - Non-governmental organizations - Local, national & internat. governmental agencies  It will work together closely with - Universities - National and international research institutions - Environmental research & assessment programs Partnerships (3)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 24 PAGE 24 The National Context (in Germany) CSC is coordinating and promoting efforts conducted by a large network of institutions: 1) Ministries (Research, Environment, Transport) 2) Research Institutions (Max Planck, Helmholtz, Universities…) 3) Regional Climate Offices of HGF 4) Meteorological Service (DWD) 5) Private Sector (energy, insurance, finances…)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 25 PAGE 25 The International Context USA National Climate Services (NOAA) Climate Central, Princeton Canada OURANOS, Montreal Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS), Victoria UK Hadley Centre Walker Institute Germany Climate Service Center, Hamburg Regional Climate Offices The World Climate Conference-3 Geneva, 2009

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 26 Planned Organization PAGE 26  Director  Executive Assistant (General Coordination)  Strategy Development, Management of BMBF Project & Budget  Organization of Workshops / other professional events Project Management, Elaboration and distribution of CSC Products  Network Management & Customer Service

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 27 Planned Organization Data analysis and processing of climate projections (multi- model ensembles) Project Development Translation of knowlegde for the needs of different sectors Support of studies by groups of experts Website, Media- Development External contacts (sectors, press) Organization of interdisciplinary courses and events Processing of individual requests

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 28 Networking, initiation of cooperations & partnerships Website, PR and media presence Processing of individual customer requests Publications, newsletters & annual CSC conferences Realization of expert workshops Provide specialized lecturers Initiation of practice- and customer-oriented projects Participation in the (inter)national climate debate Products and Services

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 29  Preliminary discussions for extension of CSC network (PIK, GFZ, UFZ, AWI, “Regional Climate Offices”, UBA etc)  Visit to several Bundesländer (Niedersachsen, Sachsen, South German Länder, etc.)  Participation Brasseur in the visit of Prof. Dr. Mrs. Schavan, Minister of Science, in Washington (workshop at NSF)  Session at the Summer AGU Assembly (Brazil) on Climate Services (Convenor: Brasseur) Recent Achievements (1)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 30  A cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (SMB) focusing on climate services  A series of workshops with GDV (Feb 2010, April 2010, …)  Meeting of the European Global Change Forum (industry, NGO) at CSC in March 2010 Recent Achievements (2)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 31  Study of the trends in the global temperature records by an international group of experts, and publication of a study report  Workshop on „What after Copenhagen?“  Development of a research project on the prediction of convective events and the related damages in Europe (follow-up of symposium with insurance companies) Possible Initiatives

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 32 Conclusions (1)  Climate variability and change have considerable consequences on the Earth’s ecosystems and on human societies  Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades. However, the knowledge has to be translated into user-friendly climate information  Climate Service Centers build bridges between climate science and societal /applicational needs

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 33 We need an integrated system with:  Coherent observations, data systems, and shared standards that allow easy exchanges of data  Reliable prediction models on seasonal, interannual, decadal variability of extreme regional weather events  Sufficient computer resources to develop and implement the required high-resolution global physical climate models  Human resources that conduct innovative research  Climate Services that deliver science-based information to society

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 34 PAGE 34 Thank you.

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 35 Management (External Bodies) Not yet decided by BMBF…. But probably: Steering Committee with representatives of Ministries and Helmholtz Association Partner Forum (DWD, MPI-M, Kompass, etc.) Advisory Panel (ad hoc for specific problems)

4 th WCRP WOAP Meeting, March 2010, KlimaCampus, Uni Hamburg p. 36 Climate Services in Germany  reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts  maintain or enhance adaptability of natural, societal, and economic systems German Adaptation Strategy Sustainable planning and acting requires to  widen the knowledge base  create transparency and participation  support stakeholders by providing the basis for decision-making  raise awareness and provide information through broad public relations  develop strategies to deal with uncertainties The German Adaptation Strategy aims to