Peak Oil – Myth or Menace? Chautauqua Course University of Dayton May 24 – 26, 2007 Dr. Robert Brecha, Dr. Shuang-Ye Wu, Dr. James Swaney

Some Themes for the Course Natural resources are finite –Exponential growth is limited Data are poor Economics vs. Geology Energy infrastructure is large Anthropogenic climate change is real Global societal consequences of finite resources are important

M. King Hubbert

1956 Prediction

So – How’d he do?

And with Alaska Added?

OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, January 1, 2005 Estimates

Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

EIA – May 2007 North Sea production is projected to decline more rapidly in the IEO2007 reference case than was projected in IEO2006. Production from Norway, OECD Europe’s largest producer, appears to have peaked at about 3.4 million barrels per day in 2001, and it is projected to continue declining to about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2030 as the larger and older fields mature. Production from the United Kingdom, which peaked in 1999 at 3.0 million barrels per day, is projected to fall to 0.5 million barrels per day in

Stuart Staniford,

World Energy Use Coal Nuclear Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind solar, etc. RE Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu

US Energy Use Industrial Commercial Residential Transportation Light vehicles Med./hvy trucks Air (Water, pipeline, rail, buses) ~2/3 of oil use is transportation

Automobiles

Cumulative Savings Strategies

Food Production – More Efficient?

Energy Use and HDI Chad Qatar Europe, U.S. Botswana Mexico Argentina Saudi Arabia South Africa