Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia Energy Context of Civilization Development: Cycles and Crises The 6 TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development RIO+20 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 13, 2012

Global System “NATURE-SOCIETY-HUMAN” 2 Nature Ecosystem Natural resources Society Геополитика Economics Human Vital Potential Intelligence Health Geopolitics Technologies Climate Ecosphere Solar Energy

Ellyotte’s Fractals A B T=36-40 years T=10-12 years Temporal and Spatial Fractality of Civilization’s Development That is above, that is below … That was, will be … 3

Millennial Civilization’s Cycles Trend Antiquity Slavery Dark Age Science Stagnation Veda(s) Empires Religions Industrial Age Ecology Productive (Material) Forces Spiritual (Moral) Development 4

History of XXth Century: Ellyotte’s Wave Politics Economics Wars and Revolutions Politics … ? А В С Development Impulse phaseCorrective phase End of the World War I, Civil War in Russia Disintegration of empires. Creation of the League of Nations. Formation of the USSR. Demilitarisation Beginning of the Great Depression Formation of totalitarian regimes in Europe, Beginning of the World War II Creation of the United Nations, IMF, The world becomes bipolar Beginning of the Cold War, Decolonization 5 1th Oil crisis of 1973 Vietnam war Economic Crisis in the USA 2 nd Oil crisis of 1979 Shah’s Revolution in Iran Afghanistan War Ideology crisis in the USSR. Stock market crisis of 1987 Collapse of the USSR War in Kuwait, economic crises in Mexico, Asia and the RF Dotcom bubble of 2000 Beginning of war in Iraq World financial crisis Revolutions in the Arab world Debt crisis in the USA, European and Asian countries What’s NEXT ?

XX-XXI Time Parameters value Population Information Energy consumption Global System “Nature-Society-Human” Comes to Limits of Hyperbolic Growth … Hyperbolic growth of parameters of the global system “Nature-Society-Human” Expected macrosocial "transition" 6 Level Macrosocial transition Possibilities Expensive human resources Russia Needs Time Cheap human resources

OilGas & nuclear “Electric World” & Renewables Coal Global primary energy consumption, bln toe Cyclic Crises as Points of Bifurcation for Civilization’s Development Continuation of the pre-crisis growth path Inhibition of growth and stagnation Fact 7 Crisis of the 2010th Crisis of the 1930th Crisis of the 1970th

Crisis of the 2010s is the 1 st Multidimensional Crisis in the Globalization Age Financial and Economic Crisis Geopolitical Crisis Global Energy Security Crisis Environmental Crisis Dangerous symptoms of Crisis Resonance 8

Dynamics of Natural Catastrophes, Velocity of the North Magnetic Pole’s DriftDynamics of Earthquakes with a magnitude of 8 and higher Dynamics of catastrophic TsunamiDynamics of catastrophic Volcano Eruptions Source: The First Report of the International Committee on Issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”,

Tension Growth in World Policy “Fractures” and Struggle for Resources Source: Vikipedia Food Crisis Social Crisis Economic Crisis Energy Crisis Institutional Crisis Rise of Radical Islamism 10 Commotions in Arab countries ( ) Regional Conflicts Revolution Resignation of Government Civil War Serious unrest Separate protest actions

11 “Bubbles” of Virtual Economics and Crisis of State Debts Total all financial derivatives to World Economic Output, , bln. USD Source: Source: Institute of Energy Strategy on IMF Statistics Dynamics of the state debt to GDP ratio, , % of GDP Finance came off from reality … "Pyramid" of state debts becomes uncontrollable … France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain EU

Global Energy Security Crisis Oil Sands in Canada Shale Gas in the USA Heavy Oil in Venezuela Oil extraction on Brazilian Offshore Renewables in EU Energy Consumption Growth in China Oil of the Middle East LNG in Qatar Non Conventional Energy Sources in China Lybia Resource globalization gives way to a regionalization… Fukushima: new challenge for technological energy security High level of energy resources market’s volatility 12 Oil Sands in Canada LNG in Qatar Regionalization ‘s factors Globalization’s factors

What’s next? Coal: before 1930 New Sources of Energy after 2030 Gas: after 1970 Oil: Wind energy after 2010 Nuclear: after 1970 Solar Energy after 2010 New Structure of Energy Flow (from Power to Smart) 13

 Electricity is the most qualified type of energy consumption (wide possibilities for using electricity)  Electric transport is a main part of the infrastructure for the Future (zero pollutions, independence from oil and gas)  Energy consumers can be energy producers (new level of economic efficiency for Energy Sector)  Possibility of wireless transport of energy (new level of energy mobility)  Possibility of energy storage (accumulators, storage batteries) “Electric World” as a base of the Future Global Energy System 1414

Russia on the Future World Energy Map TrendRisk for RussiaRequirement for Russia Slowing demand for Russian energy Slowing growth of economy & export Optimization of export pipeline projects Shift of demand to Asia Growing competition in Europe New export destinations in Asia End of oil eraEconomic crisisReduce dependence on oil exports Climate policyLimited export opportunities New markets New-generation energy sector Irreversible lag for Russia in energy and economy Modernization and innovative development of Energy Sector 1515

Thank you for your attention Alexey GROMOV Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow The Energy of the Future in our Hands