The Nexus Between Energy, Food, and Water Security in the Arabian Gulf Dr. Jean-Marc Rickli Assistant Professor Department of Defence Studies, King’s College, London Joaan Bin Jassim Joint Command and Staff College, Doha

Structure of the Presentation Traditional determinants of energy security New dynamics affecting energy security Energy consumption patterns in the Gulf Water security Food security Conclusions

Energy Security

Primary Oil and Gas Deposits in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea Basins Source: petroleuminsights.blogspot.ch

Shipping Lanes, Strategic Passages and Oil Reserves in the Middle East Source: Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints & BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes (millions barrels per day) Source: International Energy Agency (2014)

Oil and Gas Dependence of GCC Economies in 2010 Shares in % Source: IMF 2012 and Woertz 2013

Chinese String of Pearls Network

GCC Population Evolution

Population of the UAE Source: World Bank

GDP per Capita v.s. Energy Intensity Source: Future Outlook of Desalination in the Gulf, Saif 2012

GCC Electricity Consumption per Head Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Electricity Demand Forecast for Abu Dhabi (diversified) Source: ADWEC

Total Energy Consumption in the GCC Source: Intelligence Economic Unit

Difference Between the Natural Gas Consumption and Production for some GCC States Source: BP

Energy Production and Consumption in Saudi Arabia Source: US Energy Information Administration

Oil Price and Breakeven Prices

Energy Dependence Source: ESIA 2012

Water Demand in Selected GCC Countries Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in the Gulf since 1970 Source: Future Outlook of Desalination in the Gulf, Saif 2012

Arabian Gulf Morphology Source: Gulf 2000 Project, Columbia University

GCC Food Imports 2007-2020 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

GCC Trade Dependencies in Cereals, 2000 and 2010 Source: Chatham House 2013

Choke-Points and Strategic Infrastructure in GCC Food Security

Vulnerability of MENA Countries to Food Price Spikes Source: Chatham House 2013

Targets of GCC Agricultural Investments Ranked by Area Acquired, 2006-12 Source: Chatham House 2013

Change in Maximum Catch Potential from 2005 to 2055

Conclusions Dramatic rise in energy-food-water consumption in the Gulf in the near future Traditional energy exports: protection of SLOC New energy distribution patterns: new maritime actors in the Gulf, navies as tool of power, protections of SLOC Increased volume of desalinated water: prevention of pollution, protection of critical infrastructure, prevention of conflicts over water Increased reliance on food imports: protection of SLOC

Many thanks for your attention jean-marc.rickli@kcl.ac.uk Twitter: Dr_JMRickli