The Game Changer and the Market Jennifer Fordham IMGA Meeting April 12, 2011 Springfield, Illinois 1.

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Presentation transcript:

The Game Changer and the Market Jennifer Fordham IMGA Meeting April 12, 2011 Springfield, Illinois 1

2001 to A Decade Makes a Difference 2 ThenNow #  60-year supply and falling  Shale known but uneconomic to develop  Underground gas storage primarily traditional reservoir, operationally not very flexible  Pipeline capacity growing incrementally  Rising prices with several spikes  100+ years supply and growing  Flourishing production, vast shale resources now accessible  Storage boom with more flexible salt-cavern facilities and additional market area storage  16,000+ miles of interstate pipeline added since 2000  Plentiful supplies moderate prices and provide supply diversity

How The Game Has Changed 3  Improvements in technology brought down costs and greatly increased the scope of resource development  Shale gas production quadrupled between 2006 – 2010 and is poised to comprise more than 40% of U.S. gas production in 2020  Shale and other “unconventional’ gases could account for over 80% of U.S. gas production by 2020, compared to 66% today  Diversity of supply complements strong and growing pipeline system, reduces vulnerability to hurricanes, brings natural gas closer to consumers Source: Wood Mackenzie 2010 Conventional Shale Tight CBM bcfd U.S. Production Forecast By Type 80% Conventional Shale Tight CBM bcfd U.S. Gas Production Forecast By Type 80%

Abundant Unconventional Gas Widespread Across U.S. U.S. Gas Reserves Increased 22% between 2006 –2009 Primarily Due to Shale Development 4 Updated: June 6, 2010

Technology Makes It All Work  Drilling technology improvements and efficiencies in shale have emerged –Longer horizontal laterals –Multiple-stage hydraulic fractures per lateral  Small surface footprint for multiple, extended wells  Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing result in gas wells with long stable production lives  Ground water is separated by thousands of feet and tons of impermeable rock and protected by state and federal regulation  Significant amount of water is recycled  “Micro-seismic” technology evolving and enabling even greater precision in fracturing wells 5

Typical Shale Well: Horizontal Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing Provide Long, Stable Production Life Initial Production from Typical Shale Well 2 to 15 MMCFD* * Based on one company’s experience of typical production from the Haynesville shale wells First Production 40+ Years After First Production Supply Stability High initial production rates Long and stable production lives Typical conventional well decline, 3 – 5 years Initial Production 6

Onshore Conventional Gas Production Remains Dominant, But Shale Growing 7 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

As Supply Increases, Price Forecasts Have Dropped, With Henry Hub Now Forecast Under $6.00 to Mid – 2020s 8 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Natural Gas Spot Price (Henry Hub) 2009 dollars/MMBtu

To Make It All Happen, Industry Is Committed to Good Stewardship  Listening to and addressing community concerns  Use of stringent industry and government standards on land reclamation, well construction, water management and pipeline safety  Responsible hydraulic fracturing practices  Minimizing surface effects on land and infrastructure  Offshore safety and spill containment 9

… And Government Must Do Its Part As Well  Fair access to onshore and offshore resources  Continued strong and effective state regulation of hydraulic fracturing  Level playing field: avoid picking winners and losers through mandates  Tax policy must be fair, not burdensome, and compatible with resource development and job creation  Financial regulations that do not create “economic drain” on investment  Current regulatory model for pipelines ensures safe, reliable operations and infrastructure investment 10

Industry Already Recognizing Importance of Natural Gas by Investing in Storage, Pipelines, and Gas Generation 11

Decade of Growing Natural Gas Infrastructure 12

Source: Wood Mackenzie; renewable sources & nuclear include a federal tax credit; assumes $2.00/mmbtu coal prices A combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) natural gas facility is the least expensive, full-cycle generation alternative. $/MWH Capital and Operating Costs Make Gas a Preferred Choice for Power Generation 13

Natural Gas Is Among the Cleanest Electric Generation Alternatives Natural gas is clean burning Most emissions Middle emissions Least emissions Source: R.W. Beck Tons per year per thousand households Biomass (Wood) CoalNatural Gas Nuclear & Renewables Carbon Monoxide (CO) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Low9,3623, Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Particulate Matter Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Mercury

Land Usage Also Makes Gas a Preferred Choice for Power Generation Natural gas has the smallest footprint of any energy source Acres Source: R.W. Beck and Black and Veatch for NGSA Acres of land needed to produce the fuel and generate enough electricity to serve 1,000 households for one year 15

Changes in price Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago Board of Trade Company Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices Natural Gas

Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago Board of Trade Company Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices Natural Gas compared to Crude Oil & Coal

Ebb and Flow of Commodity Prices Natural Gas compared to other Major Commodities Source: CME Group, a CME/Chicago Board of Trade Company 18

Natural Gas Myths MYTH #1 –”There’s not enough natural gas to meet demand from manufacturers and electrics” –U.S. resources up 40 percent since 2006 due to shale – 100-year resources with potential to grow MYTH #2 – “Offshore drilling ban will hurt natural gas customers” –Most GOM gas production located in shallow water and excluded from ban MYTH # 3 – “Heavy-handed regulation of shale could stop its production” –States are heavily invested in shale production – 50,000 jobs created in 2009 in Pennsylvania alone MYTH #4 – “Natural gas is vulnerable to Middle East policies” –Between 1 and 3 percent of U.S. demand is met by LNG imports –75 percent of those imports are from Trinidad & Tobago, remainder from Norway, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Qatar. 19

Final Thoughts  Entire natural gas industry significantly expanded since 2000  Industry takes “Fracking” issue seriously, but believes it can be managed  Competitive market has dampened price volatility  “Dash to Gas” issue overstated  U.S. enjoys most robust, transparent, and reliable natural gas industry in world 20

BACKGROUND 21

Regulated by states and under the following federal laws:  Clean Water Act – surface water discharge, storm water runoff  Clean Air Act – air emissions associated with processing equipment and engines  Safe Drinking Water Act – underground injection disposal/reuse of produced water and flowback fluids  Federal Land Policy and Management Act – permitting for federal onshore resources  Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act – permitting for federal offshore resources  National Environmental Policy Act – permits and environmental impact statements  Occupational Safety and Health Act – requires information about chemicals used at every site  Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act – annual reporting to emergency responders of chemicals stored and used above certain quantities  Extensive State Oversight – implement federal laws and regulate drilling fluids and produced water management –Detailed state regulatory information available at 22 Government Oversight of Natural Gas Production

What’s in Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Public State-based Registry of Hydraulic Fracturing Fluids to Launch Spring 2011  Fluid is 99.5% water and sand, less than 0.5% chemical additives  Registry created and managed by state regulators – the Ground Water Protection Council and the Interstate Oil & Gas Compact Commission  Endorsed by America’s Natural Gas Alliance, American Exploration & Production Council, American Gas Association, American Petroleum Institute, Independent Petroleum Association of America, Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, Natural Gas Supply Association  Searchable public database with well-by-well information and glossary of chemicals 23

Recycling wastewater reduces environmental footprint, transportation costs and reliance on groundwater or municipal sources of water  Drilling companies in the Marcellus recycled more than 66 % of water June 2008-May 2010  Re-used 44 million gallons of water & disposed of 21 million gallons (Source: Penn State University Hydrologist David Yoxtheimer) Producer goal: Recycle 100% of produced water in Pennsylvania State wide test results show recycled water meets all federal radium standards  Quote: “…all samples tested … showed levels at or below the normal naturally occurring background levels of radioactivity.” (PA Department of Environmental Protection, March 7, 2011) State and local testing of water to continue on regular basis, with strong support from natural gas companies How Much Is 5 Million Gallons? The 5 million gallons of water needed to drill and fracture a typical deep shale gas well is equivalent to the amount of water consumed by: New York City in approximately seven minutes A 1,000 megawatt coal- fired power plant in 12 hours A golf course in 25 days 10 acres of cotton in a season While these represent continuing consumption, the water used for a gas well is a one-time use. How Much Is 5 Million Gallons? The 5 million gallons of water needed to drill and fracture a typical deep shale gas well is equivalent to the amount of water consumed by: New York City in approximately seven minutes A 1,000 megawatt coal- fired power plant in 12 hours A golf course in 25 days 10 acres of cotton in a season While these represent continuing consumption, the water used for a gas well is a one-time use. Water Management 24

Resources All natural gas technically recoverable (excludes hydrates) Reserves Resources profitable with known technology Possible Reserves Resources profitable with known technology, 10% confidence Probable Reserves Resources profitable with known technology, 50% confidence Proven Reserves Resources profitable with known technology, 90% confidence Natural Gas Supply Terminology 25

Natural Gas’ Impact on the U.S. Economy and Employment  Natural gas companies contributed over $4.4 billion per year on average in gas royalty payments alone to the federal government between 2005 and 2010  Overall contribution to the economy even greater: –$385 billion to the domestic economy in 2008 –$180 billion in labor income alone –Nearly 3 million American jobs –Over 600,000 Americans are directly employed by natural gas development 26 Sources: IHS Global Insight, 2010 U.S. Department of the Interior’s Office of Natural Resources Revenue