(a selection of) Important data and modeling activities sponsored by WCRP in Major findings, recommendations and actions

Data/Modeling October 2011, Boulder, WCRP Open Science Conference: actionable science, climate.org/conference2011/documents/WCRP%20Conference%20AGU _Eos_mtg.pdf –Prediction of the Earth System, bridging physical climate and bio- geochemistry –Cloud/aerosols/radiative feedback and climate sensitivities –Regional climate/seamless prediction –Quantify predicted climate uncertainty –Decadal/initialized predictability –Polar predictability –Extremes attribution –Sea-level rise –Capacity building Most challenges will involve both data and modeling efforts

Data April 2011, Frascati, WCRP-GCOS workshop on the evaluation of satellite-related global climate datasets, climate.org/documents/ECV_Wksp_WCRP_Report.pdf –FACT1 data sets = great value and opportunity for verification and validation of Earth/climate models –FACT 2 incompatibility of format, projection and error characteristics were identified as major impediments to sub-optimal use of observations –AIM promote intercomparison and the evaluation of datasets of Essential Climate Variables (ECV) following GCOS Requirements –FOCUS lessons learned and best practices for a manageable sub-set of space-based observations rather than being all encompassing (future could focus on in situ and/or additional space-based observational records) –ACTION establish an international framework for a consistent approach to the production, evaluation and accessibility of global climate datasets, which could lead to inventory of essential climate data sets –ONGOING discussions with NCDC to host ECV inventory on GOSIC, draft plan developed and being reviewed –ESA tentatively agreed to host the follow-up meeting early 2013, possibly with WDAC2

Data WOAP Flux report, climate.org/documents/woap_fluxes_report_01_2012.pdf –Common issues over land, ice and sea: RECOM Evaluation of products (in-situ, models, reanalysis) and accuracies, WDAC ideal for cross-entity dialogue –Distribution of reference sites RECOM Initial consideration on land, optimization (distribution, consistency, multi-variable –Flux measurement and data processing RECOM Liaise with space agencies, gap analysis –Global datasets of fluxes: RECOM devpt of community guidelines –Evaluation of model fluxes: RECOM continuation of WGNE SURFA

Data 7-11 May 2012, Silver Spring, 4 th International Reanalysis Conference, –FACT Reanalyses: one of most used info in climate research –CHALL: unsecure funding, some observing systems at risk will impact quality, bias correction and ref obs, uncertainty estimations, longer periods –NEED: international coordination –POTENTIAL: coupled and hybrid assimilation, adjusting cov and assimilation windows –ACTION: conference every 4-5 years, data assimilation conference in 2 years –ACTION: make reanalyses available on ESGF

Modeling March 2011, Trieste, 1 st International CORDEX Conference, teg=a10131&id=a10131s37t80/slides –RECOM: leverage CMIP5 experience, approach, architecture, formats –RECOM: focus on 3 VIA applications (health, agriculture, water) –CHALL: populate the GCM/RCM/RCP matrix –RECOM: extend CORDEX mandate –DONE: from “CORDEX Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling” to “CORDEX Science Advisory Team” established –TO-DO: web portal consistency, develop all regions –TO-DO: identify suitable observational data sets for each region

Modeling 5-9 March 2012, Honolulu, CMIP5 Analysis Workshop, climate.org/documents/ezine/WCRPnews_ pdf –CONCL: spread and patterns of new CMIP5 AOGCM and ESM similar to CMIP3 –CHALL: some problems persist (double ITCZ, Arctic clouds and circulation, Antarctic sea ice loss, etc) –CHALL: CMIP5 has far more info to be analyzed, IPCC deadline, continuous ESG population –ACTION: prepare grounds for CMIP6, AR6

Modeling March 2012, Pasadena, The Physics of Weather and Climate Models

Others Past –Drought workshops –Sub-seasonal to seasonal Project (WCRP/WWRP) –… Upcoming –WGNE Systematic errors –WGNE Short to medium range coupled predictions –Pan-WGSIP –Pan-CORDEX –Data assimilation (TBD) –… CLIVAR, CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX data and modeling activities …