© OECD/IEA 2010 Cecilia Tam International Energy Agency Martin Taylor Nuclear Energy Agency The Role of Nuclear Energy in a Sustainable Energy Future Paris, 27 May 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010 Energy-related CO 2 Emissions in the WEO-2009 Reference Scenario In cumulative terms, by 2030 emissions are 35 Gt lower than in WEO % of this reduction is due to the financial crisis, 25% to new policies Mtoe Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal WEO-2008 total Global energy demand grows by average 1.5% p.a. to 2030; 22% more oil, 42% more gas, 53% more coal than today Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

© OECD/IEA 2010 A Sustainable Energy Future: The ‘450 Scenario’ Efficiency accounts for 2/3 of the 3.8 Gt abatement in Renewables contribute 20%. With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+ region, financing will be key to meeting a 450 ppm trajectory Scenario Reference Scenario OECD+ Other Major Economies Other Countries 3.8 Gt 13.8 Gt Nuclear– 10% CCS – 10% Efficiency – 45% Renewables & biofuels – 21% Nuclear– 13% CCS – 20% Efficiency – 67% Renewables & biofuels – 19% Nuclear – 8% CCS – 6% Efficiency – 55% Renewables & biofuels – 34% Nuclear– 9% World By region Abatement by technology, 2030 Efficiency – 57% Renewables & biofuels – 23% Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

Key Technology Options Contribution of different technologies and measures to CO 2 emission reductions in the BLUE Map scenario, compared to the Baseline

© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2009  Based on a scenario to halve CO 2 emissions by 2050  Establish a baseline of technology status today  Identify and address technology-specific barriers  Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions  Create a process for stakeholder collaboration  Special developing country focus on engagement, national roadmaps  Identify partners for implementation  Support technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries The Role of the IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps

Present Status of Roadmaps 2009 releases Carbon capture & storage, Electric vehicles, Cement sector, Wind energy 2010 releases Solar PV and Concentrating solar power – May Nuclear power – June Efficient buildings: heating and cooling – September Smart grids and Biofuels – November Vehicle efficiency and Geothermal power – December 2011 releases Hydrogen & fuel cells; Clean/high-efficiency coal; Energy efficiency in buildings: design & operation; Biomass combustion for heat & power

Nuclear is Already a Widely Used Low-Carbon Technology Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

© OECD/IEA 2010 A New Age of Electrification Under the Baseline, fossil fuels continue to dominate. In BLUE Map, nuclear provides 24% of global electricity production. In the High Nuclear case, nuclear provides 38%

© OECD/IEA 2010 Nuclear Competitiveness (1) Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (5% Discount Rate) Nuclear is already a very cost competitive technology Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010 Nuclear Competitiveness (2) Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (10% Discount Rate) But nuclear costs depend strongly on the discount rate Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010

 Nuclear is a proven technology and can play an important role in a low-carbon strategy  Installed capacity could reach GW and supply 24% of the world’s electricity in 2050 under the ETP BLUE Map scenario  Political support and public acceptance are key for implementation of a nuclear programme  Financing nuclear is another key challenge  Expansion of nuclear industry capacities and skilled workforce needed  In the longer term, Generation IV technologies could reduce costs and improve performance and security Nuclear Roadmap Prepared by IEA and NEA: Key Findings

Growth of Nuclear Capacity and Electricity Generation to 2050 Nuclear capacity triples in the BLUE Map scenario, and its share of electricity generation rises from 14% today to 24% in Under a High Nuclear case, nuclear capacity could reach GW, providing 38% of electricity

© OECD/IEA 2010 Selected Key Actions  Demonstrate the ability to build the latest nuclear plant designs on time and within budget  Develop the industrial capacities and skilled human resources to support growth in nuclear capacity  Establish the required legal frameworks and institutions in countries where these do not yet exist  Encourage the participation of private sector investors in nuclear power projects  Make progress in implementing plans for permanent disposal of high-level radioactive wastes  Enhance public dialogue to inform stakeholders about the role of nuclear in energy strategy  Expand the supply of nuclear fuel in line with increased nuclear generating capacity

International collaboration is needed to expand nuclear around the world Non-OECD countries could represent half of the nuclear capacity in 2050 and greater international collaboration will be needed, particularly for capacity building in new nuclear countries

© OECD/IEA 2010 Milestones for Development of Nuclear Technology  Life extension of existing plants  Fully establish Gen III+ designs, operate FOAK plants  Complete several Gen III+ plants, on time and cost  Implement plans for geological disposal of HLW  Demonstration of most promising Gen IV designs  Complete RD&D for advanced fuel cycles  Build & operate the first commercial Gen IV plants  Increase use of nuclear in non-electricity sectors

© OECD/IEA 2010 Nuclear Roadmap will be released in late June