1 Impact of Climate Change on Socioeconomic Systems: Implications for Developing Countries and Development Co-operation Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate

2 Some Key Points  The impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems need to be viewed within the context of baseline demographic and social stresses, as well as vulnerability to current weather and climate  Poor countries and poor people are particularly vulnerable, because of their higher dependence on climate sensitive natural resources and their low coping capacities  Adaptation can help alleviate some of these impacts, but there are limits; To be more effective adaptation needs to be mainstreamed within core national development, and donor plans and projects.

3 1. The Big Picture

4 2. Regional Vulnerability

5 3. Coastal Systems

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7 4. Agriculture

8 5. Health

9 6. Water

10 Expansion of Glacial Lakes in Nepal Source: DHM Nepal

11 Tam Pokhari Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, September 1998

12 Nature, Nov. 17, 2005

13 7. Why Climate Risks Matter for OECD Donors van Aalst & Agrawala / OECD 2005

14 8. How OECD donors are addressing climate risks  “Climate screening" of bilateral and multilateral aid activities: country assistance strategies; Poverty Reduction Strategies; infrastructure projects ….  Through the OECD: -Analytical work on mainstreaming adaptation in development; and economics of adaptation; - Co-ordination and sharing of good practices: Ministerial Declaration on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation in Development Co- operation; Methods and tools for screening for climate risks

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