Higher Education Access Tracker Helping member universities to target, monitor and evaluate outreach programmes Sharon Smith - Director of HEAT project Visit:

Higher Education Access Tracker Session:  About HEAT  The Heat track – what is this?  HEAT track outcomes  Challenges: analysis and findings for impact evidence

 Aimhigher legacy database and datasets  Developed by the sector  Members with common aims: Share monitoring and evaluation costs and avoid duplication Share best practice and collaborate in research Provide fit for purpose tools and information Building evidence Targeting Target Setting MonitoringEvaluatingPlanning HEAT History Higher Education Access Tracker Service

HEAT Outputs Higher Education Access Tracker Service Targeting Delivery planning Monitoring Evaluation Individual HEI and Collaborative delivery Student life cycle monitoring Database Advisory Data repository Reporting tool DfE Data Service (ILR) UCAS HESA School and college profiles KS4 and KS5 UCAS applicant KS4 and KS5 trends UCAS institution trends UCAS track HESA track Participant profile Activity delivery Targeting Delivery planning Monitoring Evaluation Reporting 1 Qualitative Research data collection for a common evaluation framework Student life cycle monitoring Database Datasets HEAT track: Participant Tracking Advisory HEAT

Higher Education Access Tracker Service Higher than predicted points Achieved 3 levels of progress Achieved 5 A*-C including English and Maths KS4 (DfE) Achieved 3 A Levels Higher than predicted points KS5 (DfE) Achieved Level 3 qualification (including work-based) FE (SFA) Applied to HE Accepted HE UCAS HE entry HE achievement DLHE PG study HE (HESA & SFA) National context HEAT track – quantitative measures for longitudinal analysis Input from HEAT HEIs Learner attitudes and aspirations Learner outreach engagement Learner Characteristics

Higher Education Access Tracker Service Linking data without a unique reference Fuzzy matching (HESA) NamesSurnamePostcodeDOBStrengthComment YYYYVeryShould be a match YNYYStrongPossible marriage or parents divorce YYNYFairlyStrong when names are rare and distance between postcodes is small NYYYFairlyCould be twins YYYNWeakUnless birth dates are similar e.g. day and month swapped or typo YNNYWeakUnless names are rare and distance between postcodes is small YNYNWeakStrong when names are rare and birth dates are similar

Non-participants In HEAT schools All students in HEAT schools HEAT Participants Higher Education Access Tracker Service Key findings from HEAT track …Comparing achievement in 2010/11: Percentage of students awarded 5 A*-C (including English and Maths)… HEAT Students AverageNational AverageHEAT Schools …Comparing achievement in 2010/11: Percentage of students awarded 5 A*-C (including English and Maths)… HEAT Students AverageNational AverageHEAT Schools 55% 68% 46% …Comparing % of 2010/11 students achieving expected progression from KS2 to KS4 with a focus upon English… Non-Heat students …Comparing % of 2010/11 students achieving expected progression from KS2 to KS4 with a focus upon English… Non-Heat students Non-participants In HEAT schools All students in HEAT schools …KS4 attainment - capped score… HEAT Participants

Achieved 1 st / 2:1 (HEAT) 62% Achieved 1 st /2:1 (national) 60% Ended up level group % Moved up from 4-8 to % Destinations of HEAT cohort after HE (NS-SEC levels) Looking at Polar v3 only… Higher Education Access Tracker Service Key findings from HEAT track National Q1-2 YPR 25% 32% HEAT Q1-2 YPR Comparing HEAT YPR to the national average [2011/2012]… National Q1-2 YPR 25% 32% HEAT Q1-2 YPR HEAT participant success rates Success, attainment & employment destinations… Achieved first degree 84% Achieved 1 st or 2:1 64% HEAT participants [2007/2013] National average [2006/07] Achieved first degree 82% Achieved 1 st or 2:1 65% HEAT participant success rates Success, attainment & employment destinations… Achieved first degree 84% Achieved 1 st or 2:1 64% HEAT participants [2007/2013] National average [2006/07] Achieved first degree 82% Achieved 1 st or 2:1 65% High intensity activity …and the value of intensive WP activity… 42% YPR Low intensity activity 37% YPR High intensity activity …and the value of intensive WP activity… 42% YPR Low intensity activity 37% YPR Achieved 1 st / 2:1 (HEAT) 62% Achieved 1 st /2:1 (national) 60% Ended up level group % Moved up from 4-8 to % Destinations of HEAT cohort after HE (NS-SEC levels) Looking at Polar v3 only… Comparing HEAT YPR to the national average [2011/2012]…

Higher Education Access Tracker Service  Participant and Activity variation  Intensity – intensive for one may not be intensive for another  differing effects and impact depending on the individual  differing “starting” points for individuals – in terms of social, cultural and educational capital  Data evidence has to take into consideration differing capital baselines (see work of NERUPI at Bath)  Introducing a HEAT participant classification system Evaluation challenges Meaningful accurate data Longitudinal PPP Comparators and control groups Context

Higher Education Access Tracker Service HEAT participant classification system Aspiration Academic Attainment Progression to HE Indicators: Q1&2 (POLAR) FSM (DfE) First Gen. HE (HEAT) Acorn Group (CACI) Indicators: KS4 Attainment (DfE) KS4 position in relation to school average (DfE) KS5 Attainment (DfE) Indicator: Progression data (HESA) HEAT Group 1 Low Attainment Low Aspiration Starting Cohort: All Activity Participants Low Attainment : Those who have not achieved 5 or more GCSE and equivalents at grades A*-C (Level 2) including GCSE English and Maths. Those below school KS4 average (level to be decided). Low Aspiration (by proxy): FSM or Q1&2 or First Generation HE or Acorn group (to be decided) HEAT Group 2 Low Attainment High Aspiration HEAT Group 3 High Attainment Low Aspiration HEAT Group 4 High Attainment High Aspiration Progression to HE Indicators: Q1&2 (POLAR) FSM (DfE) First Gen. HE (HEI survey) Acorn Group (CACI) Survey data (HEI survey) Indicators: KS4 Attainment (DfE) KS4 position in relation to school average (DfE) KS5 Attainment (DfE) Indicator: Progression data (HESA) HEAT Group 1 Low Attainment Low Aspiration Low Attainment : Those who have not achieved 5 or more GCSE and equivalents at grades A*-C (Level 2) including GCSE English and Maths. Those below school KS4 average (level to be decided). Low Aspiration (by proxy): FSM or Q1&2 or First Generation HE or Acorn group (to be decided) HEAT Group 2 Low Attainment High Aspiration HEAT Group 3 High Attainment Low Aspiration HEAT Group 4 High Attainment High Aspiration Aspiration?/ Social or Cultural or Economic Capital?/ Academic Attainment/ Educational capital

Higher Education Access Tracker Service We want to hear from you…  Collaborative research? Specific groups, themes  Test methodology?  Common evaluation questions across members  Please contact Sharon Smith or Anna Anthony on