National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead Bill Read, Director National Hurricane Center

Drivers  Decision support concept of operations  Storm Surge Road Map  Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project  AWIPS 2 transition  Communication landscape  Coastal development (land use policy)  Hurricane resistant building (or not)  Evacuation philosophy(ies) 2

HLT FEMA NRCC National Hurricane the Tropical Prediction Center HLT Decision Support: Hurricane Liaison Team Communication Flowchart FEMA RRCC State EOCs Local EOCs Local NWSFOs Hurricane Hotline DHS NOC

 Provide an avenue for the rapid exchange of communication with the National Hurricane Center  Provide information as a key decision tool for evacuation decision making to save lives  Aid in providing information for response resource allocations Decision Support: Hurricane Liaison Team Looking forward: review, revise, improve Video Teleconfernece during Hurricane Rita. President Bush, Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin are being briefed by DHS, FEMA and the NHC.

Decision Support: Collaboration WFO-NHC  Philosophy for collaboration (Ours rather than mine or yours)  Tools for collaboration – AWIPS 2 or ???  Service goal – improved decision support  Forecaster exchange program – increase mutual understanding  Course for WFOs 5

Keys to advances in the next decade Funded operationally oriented research Continued improvement in computing power Operational models deliver on results of research Funded operationally oriented research Continued improvement in computing power Operational models deliver on results of research 6

Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Lead Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division 22 September 2009 Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Lead Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division 22 September 2009 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

National Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Meeting the Nation’s Needs 8 National Hurricane Forecast System Goals Improve Forecast Accuracy Hurricane impact areas (track) – 50% in 10 years Severity (intensity) – 50% in 10 years Storm surge impact locations and severity Extend forecast reliability out to 7 days Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty to enable risk management decisions

Track improvement trend and HFIP Goals – Limit to predictability ?

Ike example with current and future cone (HFIP Goal) Red dot is landfall - Same relative error to cone – note much smaller threat area...

Intensity Goals for HFIP much more of a challenge than Track

Rapid intensity change Current models have little or no skill

Experimental Rapid Intensification

AWIPS 2 – short term drag on improvements A long time coming Hard to change

Communications Landscape  Expanding media (how to keep up with)  Graphical/text mix  Serious media – social media - how best to use  Content 15

“Products”…. 16 Plus one more page… Plus 8 more pages…

…or “information”? 17

Land Use Policy  100 year flood plain  “We will rebuild – and better”  Chamber of Commerce mentality toward mitigation  Growth into risk areas along the coast unabated

The 100 Year Flood Plain 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year yr 10%4%2% 1%.2%

“I was told I wasn’t in a flood plain” Atlanta, 2009

Tropical Storm Allison  Most flooded property outside the 100 year – buyouts  Most of 100,000 cars were parked – streets are floodways  Medical center flooded 1976 and most hospitals mitigated to the 100 year event – 2.5B in damage due to Allison…  Deaths - all either drove or walked into flood water well after warnings issued

Storm Surge – “we will be back” But should we???

What we must do this next decade  Require Flood Insurance for all in identified surge risk area – recruit the mortgage industry (Like they do for Fire)  Advocate a land use policy prohibiting critical care institutions like nursing homes from being built in surge zones

“We will rebuild – and build better”  Biloxi – New Orleans – Galveston --- every time a hurricane disaster occurred the city leaders have stated their city would rise from the debris.  However… the rebuilds haven’t been that much better… maybe even worse today as much more expensive stuff going up right on the waters edge (or in NOLA case, below…)  Building codes in most states only minimally increases resilience of homes and businesses (if followed)

Chamber of Commerce  “we don’t want to scare away potential residents or businesses”  “people will not pay the higher price for code built homes”  Biloxi example (casino set back, innovative pole markers)  Galveston County example (flood stakes at low water crossing, surge markers)

What we must do this next decade Make allies of the Chambers of Commerce!

Evacuation challenges  Post Katrina 120 hour timelines  FEMA Administrator, some state directors pushing to re think with goal of shortening timelines  Factors other than safety of life come into play ($$$, perception of lost tourism)  Decisions are made on uncertainty, regardless of whether or not the decider knows it 27

Evacuation philosophy??? Everyone leaves – even if they don’t really have to

Evacuation Philosophy? Less than 10% evacuate – even when told to!

The Road ahead….

“If you do not change your direction, you will end up exactly where you are headed” Ancient Chinese proverb