Risks in Middle East and India December, 2014 Citi Commercial Bank

US Exports FY13 1Risks in Middle East and India Saudi Arabia #19 Qatar #45 Kuwait #54 Oman #70 $21.9 B Precious Stones ($5.8B) Aircraft ($3.0B) Machinery ($2.3B)  Medical Instrument s ($1.3B) $19.0 B Vehicles ($5.8B)  Machinery ($5.0B)  Aircraft ($2.1B)  Medical Instrument s ($923MM) $5.0 B Aircraft ($2.8B) Machinery ($594MM) Vehicles ($513MM) Precious Stones ($307MM) $2.6 B Vehicles ($1.1B)  Machinery ($476MM)  Medical Instruments ($1.3B)  Chemicals ($87MM) $1.5 B Machinery ($500MM) Vehicles ($448MM)  Medical Instruments ($78MM)  Other ($77MM) $1.0B  Vehicles ($267MM)  Machinery ($266MM)  Other ($188MM)  Aircraft ($44MM) GCC UAE #17 $24.6 B Machinery ($6.4B) Aircraft ($5.8B) Vehicles ($3.4B) Precious Stones ($5.8B) India #18 Bahrain #78

Overview/Trends – Middle East and India 2 Falling commodity prices will continue to shape EM in 2015  Noticeable performance gaps in Capital-Output since 2011  The fall in commodity pricing has a created a notable affect in commodity exporting across Emerging Markets  2014 trends are projected to continue in 2015  A lower level of investment efficiency among commodity exporters is particularly unpleasant when combined with weaker economic dynamism  Trend expected to continue throughout 2015 Risks in Middle East and India

Future Outlook India Emerging markets should face a challenging, though not insurmountable 2015 India’s GDP Growth projection  Most significant change has been in political environment with pro business Modi government winning largest mandate in 30 years  Reform momentum gathering pace in fuel, labor, and taxation  Disinflation trends continue: Look toward cumulative 100bps cut by FY16  The ongoing trends in fiscal consolidation has led to S&P revising India’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ 3Risks in Middle East and India

GCC Outlook Commodity price headwinds persist into 2015 United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Vulnerable to recent oil price reductions Expect some economic headwinds in 2015 for Saudi Arabia, as lower oil prices put downward pressure on government revenues. Kuwait Having underachieved on the economic front for the past decade, there are some tentative signs that Kuwait might be starting to turn things around. Qatar Recent bribery allegations for 2018 and 2022 World Cup Bid could have residual affect in Risks in Middle East and India

Country Specific Political Risks UAE Saudi Arabia Large fiscal and external surpluses Strong financial asset base Kuwait Large surpluses provide financial cushion Qatar Strong economy, regional strains India Waking up the elephant 5Risks in Middle East and India

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