RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050 BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007

main questions concerning medium/long term trends RENEWABLE ENERGY  A) What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?  B) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?  C) What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?

A) OPPORTUNITIES  Very high potential overall — no resource constraint.  Markets RET could satisfy global electricity and heat demand. Technical potential of bioenergy is not sufficient to displace fossil fuels entirely in the transport sector. Share of RET is dependent on demands (peak / background or continuous supply) What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?

A) OPPORTUNITIES (CONTD.)  Regions Sufficient renewable energy resource potential in every region is naturally present. Some regions are rich in specific resource: HYDROPOWER in Asia BIOMASS crops in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union ONSHORE WIND in North America SOLAR(CSP&PV) in Africa and the Middle East GEOTHERMAL in Asia and Latin America OCEAN POWER in Asia, North America, and Oceania What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?

HYDRO Hoover Dam (USA, Nevada) 2080 MW = ~2GW ( ) 4.2 GWh / year Three Gorges Dam (China, ) MW ( !) GWh/year (~100TWh)

HYDRO Three Gorges Dam (China) mW ( !) GWh/year (~100TWh) ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (+/-): NEG Changing landscape POS According to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 366 grams of coal would produce 1 kWh of electricity during At full power, Three Gorges Dam: - Reduces coal consumption by 31 Mt/y Avoiding: Mt greenhouse gas emissions, - millions of tonnes of dust, - 1 Mt of sulfur dioxide,sulfur dioxide - 370,000 tonnes of nitric oxide,nitric oxide - 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide,carbon monoxide - and a significant amount of mercury.mercury Hydropower saves the energy needed to mine, wash, and transport the coal from northern China.

Solucar PS10 is the first solar thermal power plant based on tower in the world that generate electric) CSP concentratig solar power S20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR

PS20 and PS10 in Andalusia, SpainSOLAR

Svartsengi Power Station 150mW geothermal capacity 76mW installed (start 1976) Nesjavellir Power Station 300mW geothermal capacity 120mW installed (start 1990) ICELAND On >1150mW thermal capacity, ~580mW installed up to mW / 76mW: mW / 60mW: mW / 120mW: mW / 100mW: mW / 213mW: 2010 Geothermal power plant in Reykjavik, Iceland GEOTHERMAL

WIND POWER Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2010

WIND According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011, -there are over 12,000 wind turbines in Europe -with a total capacity of 84 GW. -The European Union accounts for over 98% of that total. -In 2010, €12.7 billion was invested in EU wind farms and GW of new power capacity was installed. -9.1% of the total energy capacity of the EU now comes from wind, up from just 2.2% in In a normal wind year, 5.3% of the EU's electricity is produced from wind power. -As of January 2011, offshore wind farms account for approximately 3.5% of capacity. -There are 1,136 offshore turbines installed, totalling 2.9GW in 45 wind farms in 9 countries. WIND POWER

WIND According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011, WIND POWER The EWEA estimates that 230GW of wind capacity will be installed in Europe by 2020, (190GW onshore + 40GW offshore. This would produce 14-17% of the EU's electricity, avoiding 333 million tonnes of CO2 per year and saving Europe €28 billion a year in avoided fuel costs.

WIND Wind power today, in an average wind year, generates the equivalent of - over 20% of Denmark’s electricity use -25–30% of that in three German Länder, -and on windy days with light loads, over 100% of the load in certain regions, particularly in West Denmark, North Germany, and northern Spain. WIND POWER EXAMPLE of DANISH WIND POWER PLANTS see in separate slides!

B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050  Electricity Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.)  Heating and Cooling Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

 Transport Fuels B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

$70.9bn $49.6bn $27.5bn GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY % Growth 43% Growth Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?

C) DRIVERS FOR A RET REVOLUTION  Costs ( of production  & installing  & maintain  )  Capital ( investments , since produciton „good deal” )  Climate safe technology ( Mte CO2, against non- renewables ) What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?