Climate Forecasting Unit Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba Fernandez EUPORIAS General Assembly, Toulouse, 21 st October 2014 RESILIENCE PROTOTYPE Strengthening the European Energy Network with Climate Services

Climate Forecasting Unit If I could tell you the average wind power generation for the next one to three months, could you improve your business operations?

Climate Forecasting Unit 1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.

Climate Forecasting Unit 1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms. 2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions.

Climate Forecasting Unit 1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms. 2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions. 3) Wind farm financer (e.g. Iberdrola, Decision: how to optimise the return on investments, based on a foreseen wind power capacity of an individual wind farm.

INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION 0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1 RE SILIENCE service Target In Europe In USA / Tropics Current service CLIMATOLOGY/ PROJECTIONS PREDICTIONS Climate Forecasting Unit

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1) SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION: IC3 (Verónica Torralba) 2) END-USER GUIDANCE: various inputs (EDF, Marex Spectron, Vortex, Endesa, E.ON) 3) INTERFACE DESIGN CONTRIBUTION: External visualisor 4) ENERGY FORECAST FORUM ORGANISATION

If I could tell you the average wind power generation for the next one to three months, could you improve your business operations? Climate Forecasting Unit

RE SILIENCE Applications A nticipate market changes: I dentify vulnerabilities and risks Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action Climate Forecasting Unit

RE SILIENCE Benefits A nticipate market changes: Ability to make decisions earlier Avoid subjective decision making Take calculated precautionary action Potential cost saving Climate Forecasting Unit

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ ) under the following projects: CLIM-RUN, (GA n° ) EUPORIAS, (GA n° ) SPECS, (GA n° ) THANK YOU