Comparing mitigation efforts between Annex 1 Parties Initial results (excl. LULUCF) Fabian Wagner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Overview: 1.Marginal cost and total costs 2.Sensitivity to Interest rate Energy Prices 3.Co-benefits 4.Conclusions

Baseline GHG emissions projections Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta

Annex I marginal abatement cost curve +7% +2% -3% -10% -13% % -2% -7% -13% -17% Eur/tCO2eq Rel. to 2005 Rel. to1990 Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

Resulting total mitigation costs: Annex 1 in 2020 Interest rate: 20%

Marginal cost curves for individual Parties Japan United States of America EU27 Norway Interest rate: 20%

Total cost curves for individual Parties

Sensitivity analyses Alternative interest rates Alternative oil prices Baseline activity projections

Marginal costs for different interest rates Annex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF Interest rate 20%Interest rate 4% % emissions % emissions

Total costs for different interest rates Annex 1, 2020, excl. LULUCF

Total cost curves for individual Parties Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

Emissions for individual Parties at zero total cost Interest rate Emissions relative to % -15%

Emissions for individual Parties at zero total cost Interest rate Emissions relative to 1990

Sensitivity to energy prices Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

Co-control of air pollutant emissions Annex I 2020 Interest rate: 20%

Conclusions Significant differences in mitigation potentials between countries Interest rate is important for costing, but does not change rank order between Parties Considerable mitigation potential (-15%) from negative cost measures for a 4% interest rate. In 2020, a 20% GHG reduction relative to 1990 for Annex 1 can be achieved at a marginal cost of 130 €/t CO 2 eq (at 4% interest rate) 200 €/t CO 2 eq (at 20% interest rate)