Regional Air Quality Analysis: Four Corners October 22, 2008 Rita Bates New Mexico Environment Department Air Quality Bureau

Four Corners Overview Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Navajo Nation, Ute Mountain Ute, Southern Ute Indian Tribe Federal agencies: NPS, USFS, BLM San Juan Basin produces 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily (1.5 trillion ft3 annually) [2004 survey] 6 to 8% of U.S. Natural Gas production. California’s largest source of natural gas. 17.6 million TPY coal mined. Expansive untapped coal, oil and gas reserves. 7 Class I areas within 250 km

Four Corners Air Quality Task Force Began meeting November 2005 Approximately 250 members and interested parties Task Force Report final version released November 2007 Report includes mitigation options developed by task force members Over 500 pages http://www.4cornersair.org

Four Corners Class I Areas Utah Colorado Arizona New Mexico

Energy Generation 3840 megawatts of existing coal fired power Proposed 1500 MW Desert Rock Energy Facility coal-fired power plant Economic pressure to develop resource Active environmental community

Oil and Gas Production 18,000 existing oil and gas wells in New Mexico part of San Juan Basin 10,000 projected for next 20 years in NM Many small unpermitted sources Multiple operators Changing field conditions

Oil & Gas Wells in Four Corners (as of 2003)

NM Action on Oil & Gas Production Statutory stringency limitations on new regulations. Existing Engines: NM is evaluating the need for new regulations. Has worked with BLM to incorporate a limit in the Permit to Drill COA New Engines: EPA New Source Performance Standard (NSPS) Subpart JJJJ Summary San Juan VISTAS program 3 partners who have pledged to voluntarily reduce some emissions leading to ozone, haze, & climate change Continued inventory and modeling work

Four Corners Agency Action Oil & Gas Production Federal Land Managers (BLM, FS, NPS), EPA and Tribes are working cooperatively to minimize impacts BMPs for Tanks Optimization, Centralization, Co-location Control of existing/new engines in permits to drill EPA working on rule/protocol for using Optical imaging for leak detection Continued inventory and modeling work to ensure region meets federal air quality standards

Four Corners Modeling Project Objectives Model air quality, visibility, deposition impacts of air emissions in the Four Corners region for 2005 & 2018 Evaluate impacts of alternative mitigation strategies Primary focus on impacts in Mesa Verde and Weminuche Class I areas and surrounding Class II areas. Very brief background is that the modeling project began summer 2007. The Four Corners agencies are contracting Environ to do the study. Goal of study is to Model criteria pollutants, visibility, and deposition for 2005 & 2018 Evaluate 5 mitigation scenarios

Modeling Information Distribution All modeling work is now anticipated to be complete by Spring 2009 Modeling results will be presented at a Four Corners Air Quality Group (4CAQG) update meeting scheduled for Spring/Early Summer 2009 in Durango, CO at Fort Lewis College Modeling results will also be made available online, http://www.4cornersair.org

Four Corners Modeling Schedule Task: Completion Date: Completion of 2005 base case runs with model performance evaluations. End of August 2008 2018 ozone source apportionment (OSAT) model run. (3-4 weeks) End of November 2008 2018 PM source apportionment (PSAT) run. Unknown Use 2018 OSAT and PSAT results to reevaluate the mitigation scenarios. Finalize the mitigation scenarios using more specific source (using Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code) percent reductions associated with mitigation Mid December Mitigation Scenario Modeling February 2009 Complete Model & Final Report June 2009

2005 and 2018 Power Plant Emissions

2005 and 2018 Oil & Gas Emissions – NOx

2005 and 2018 Oil & Gas Emissions – VOC

Some observations: 4K Oil and Gas annual emissions increase of 10,000 tons NOX 2005 - 2018 4K Oil and Gas annual emissions increase of 27,000 tons VOC 2005- 2018 4K San Juan GS, and 4CPP currently make-up 95%+ of energy production NOx and SO2 4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show a decrease in annual emissions NOx from 2005 – 2018 in 4Corners of 5% (mostly due to reduction in offroad and onroad mobile emissions) 4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show an increase in annual emissions VOC from 2005-2018 in 4 Corners of approx 20,000 tons, a 5% increase 4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show a increase in annual emissions SO2 2005-2018 in 4 Corners of approx 12,000 Tons per year a 28% increase mostly dependent on EGU!. & the basecase assumptions that 4CPP would increase production & that DREF would come online & that some additional future coal-fired production would be required. Interesting to see that NOx and VOC change is minimal & even though SO2 may increase...chances are it will be more like 2005 = 2018

Ozone Monitoring Sites in Four Corners Area Number of sites in the area. Unknown at this point if Dine College site is running.

Northwestern New Mexico Air Quality Monitoring NH3(airport) NOx Ozone PM 2.5 NH3 Met Waterflow SO2 NOx Ozone Met PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NOx Ozone Met NMED Air Monitoring website real time data: http://air.nmenv.state.nm.us/ *Also in process of installing mercury total deposition air monitor at Navajo Lake site 2008 *Four Corners Ammonia study recently published in Journal of Environmental Monitoring

A number of sites are above or just below the level of the new standard. - above = Navajo Lake - just below = Ute Hwy 550, Shiprock, Canyonlands, Mesa Verde Trend is slightly upward at Mesa Verde and Canyonlands sites. Trend is slightly downward at Shiprock Substation and Bloomfield sites. Ute-Hwy. 550 (Bondad) site was trending down and is now upward. Ute-Ignacio site was upward before dropping and is now indefinite on a trend. Navajo Lake trend is to be seen in a few years. (Only 2-years of data so far.)

Northwestern New Mexico Air Quality Monitoring JB clarification (10/8/08): new standard says an exceedance occurs when the three-year average of the 4th highest annual 8-hr average is greater than 0.075 ppm.  The old standard was given as 0.08 ppm (note two decimal places).  That meant that the standard was exceeded when the three-year average of the 4th highest annual 8-hr average reached 0.085 ppm. Anything between 0.081 ppm and 0.084 ppm would round to 0.08 ppm.  Now there is no longer any rounding taking place.  Once the truncated average is over 0.075, (i.e. 0.076), it is an exceedance. *We have observed relatively high levels of ozone at Navajo Lake site this October 2008. & based on a few high days middle of October our 4th highest 8-hour average there this year increased to 77 ppb [Oct 18] (preliminary). 3-yr average exceeds 75 ppb NAAQS at Navajo Lake site.

Four Corners Monitoring Information Monitoring data for our 3 ozone monitors in San Juan County are available online (real time & archived) as well as in summary format showing the annual design values that are compared to the federal standard for attainment status The 3-year average design values for the NM San Juan County ozone monitors are currently 65, 71, and 77 ppb Passive ozone studies and other research has been done throughout the area

San Juan VISTAS VISTAS History Voluntary Innovative Strategies for Today’s Air Standards San Juan VISTAS is a voluntary emission control program administered by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) for the improvement of air quality. VISTAS History Began in 2005 as a result of EAC work Modeled after EPA Gas STAR program

What’s The Purpose? Prevent pollution • The purpose of San Juan VISTAS is to identify, promote, and implement practices and technologies to reduce emissions that contribute to ozone, haze, and climate change.

Questions? New Mexico Environment Department Air Quality Bureau Farmington Office Santa Fe 3400 Messina Drive 1301 Siler Rd., Bldg. B Farmington, NM 87402 Santa Fe, NM 87507 (505) 566-9746 (505) 476-4300 Project Websites: Four Corners Air Quality Group: http://www.4cornersair.org Four Corners Modeling Project: http://www.4cornersair.org – go to modeling project link San Juan VISTAS: http://www.nmenv.state.nm.us/aqb/projects/SJV/index.html Homepage: http://www.nmenv.state.nm.us/aqb/