THE IMPACT ON THE FOOD CHAIN OF USING CROPS FOR NON-FOOD PRODUCTS April 2013 GRAHAM REDMAN

WHICH STONE IS KEY? Each stone represents a buyer, the bridge is the price

HOW ARE OILS PRICED? EU OSR and Crude Oil Price Relationship Source: HGCA / Andersons

Biofuels Reduce Price Volatility Engels Curve on Agri-Commodities

Biofuel Production (‘000 Barrels/Day)

How do Biofuels affect Prices? Increased demand for maize (or wheat) increases the price of other land based commodities It does not make vegetables (or other land based goods) comparatively cheaper, but does make fuel cheaper (theoretically) - This demonstrates that agricultural inputs (e.g. land) are restricted Biofuels now a maturing industry Now we know how to produce 140 million tonnes more grain than we eat

FUTURE OF RENEWABLES? John Hayes, New Energy Minister - wind power sceptic Owen Paterson, Environment Secretary - renewables sceptic Energy Bill, reducing Renewables funds EU Biofuels; proposals to remove support beyond set in stone to 2020; no guarantees beyond then - note how Energy Crop Scheme subsidy removed US biofuel subsidies being cut, even taxes possible - US biodiesel tax credits reinstated for 2013 Even UKIP hates renewables

UK COSTS OF PRODUCTION Nix Pocketbook costs of Producing Feed Wheat 8.0 t/Ha T/Ha

NABIM WHEAT GROUPS

WHO’S THE BIGGEST? All Grain Production by Major Region All Grain Exports by Major Producing Region Source: USDA / Andersons

UK WHEAT TRADE UK Becomes a Net Wheat Importer by Processing More Source: HGCA / Andersons

GRAINS AS COMMODITIES U.S. Corn Use for Feedgrain & Fuel Ethanol Source: Earth Policy Institute / Andersons

THE LONG-TERM CHALLENGE World Population

Graham Redman April 2013 Direct Office